Bayesian Bounds on Parameter Estimation Accuracy for Compact Coalescing Binary Gravitational Wave Signals

A global network of laser interferometric gravitational wave detectors is projected to be in operation by around the turn of the century. Here, the noisy output of a single instrument is examined. A gravitational wave is assumed to have been detected in the data and we deal with the subsequent problem of parameter estimation. Specifically, we investigate theoretical lower bounds on the minimum mean-square errors associated with measuring the parameters of the inspiral waveform generated by an orbiting system of neutron stars/black holes. Three theoretical lower bounds on parameter estimation accuracy are considered: the Cramer-Rao bound (CRB); the Weiss-Weinstein bound (WWB); and the Ziv-Zakai bound (ZZB). We obtain the WWB and ZZB for the Newtonian-form of the coalescing binary waveform, and compare them with published CRB and numerical Monte-Carlo results. At large SNR, we find that the theoretical bounds are all identical and are attained by the Monte-Carlo results. As SNR gradually drops below 10, the WWB and ZZB are both found to provide increasingly tighter lower bounds than the CRB. However, at these levels of moderate SNR, there is a significant departure between all the bounds and the numerical Monte-Carlo results.Comment: 17 pages (LaTeX), 4 figures. Submitted to Physical Review

Statistics of the MLE and Approximate Upper and Lower Bounds - Part 1: Application to TOA Estimation

In nonlinear deterministic parameter estimation, the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) is unable to attain the Cramer-Rao lower bound at low and medium signal-to-noise ratios (SNR) due the threshold and ambiguity phenomena. In order to evaluate the achieved mean-squared-error (MSE) at those SNR levels, we propose new MSE approximations (MSEA) and an approximate upper bound by using the method of interval estimation (MIE). The mean and the distribution of the MLE are approximated as well. The MIE consists in splitting the a priori domain of the unknown parameter into intervals and computing the statistics of the estimator in each interval. Also, we derive an approximate lower bound (ALB) based on the Taylor series expansion of noise and an ALB family by employing the binary detection principle. The accurateness of the proposed MSEAs and the tightness of the derived approximate bounds are validated by considering the example of time-of-arrival estimation

On optimum parameter modulation-estimation from a large deviations perspective

We consider the problem of jointly optimum modulation and estimation of a real-valued random parameter, conveyed over an additive white Gaussian noise (AWGN) channel, where the performance metric is the large deviations behavior of the estimator, namely, the exponential decay rate (as a function of the observation time) of the probability that the estimation error would exceed a certain threshold. Our basic result is in providing an exact characterization of the fastest achievable exponential decay rate, among all possible modulator-estimator (transmitter-receiver) pairs, where the modulator is limited only in the signal power, but not in bandwidth. This exponential rate turns out to be given by the reliability function of the AWGN channel. We also discuss several ways to achieve this optimum performance, and one of them is based on quantization of the parameter, followed by optimum channel coding and modulation, which gives rise to a separation-based transmitter, if one views this setting from the perspective of joint source-channel coding. This is in spite of the fact that, in general, when error exponents are considered, the source-channel separation theorem does not hold true. We also discuss several observations, modifications and extensions of this result in several directions, including other channels, and the case of multidimensional parameter vectors. One of our findings concerning the latter, is that there is an abrupt threshold effect in the dimensionality of the parameter vector: below a certain critical dimension, the probability of excess estimation error may still decay exponentially, but beyond this value, it must converge to unity.Comment: 26 pages; Submitted to the IEEE Transactions on Information Theor

Cramer-Rao bounds in the estimation of time of arrival in fading channels

This paper computes the Cramer-Rao bounds for the time of arrival estimation in a multipath Rice and Rayleigh fading scenario, conditioned to the previous estimation of a set of propagation channels, since these channel estimates (correlation between received signal and the pilot sequence) are sufficient statistics in the estimation of delays. Furthermore, channel estimation is a constitutive block in receivers, so we can take advantage of this information to improve timing estimation by using time and space diversity. The received signal is modeled as coming from a scattering environment that disperses the signal both in space and time. Spatial scattering is modeled with a Gaussian distribution and temporal dispersion as an exponential random variable. The impact of the sampling rate, the roll-off factor, the spatial and temporal correlation among channel estimates, the number of channel estimates, and the use of multiple sensors in the antenna at the receiver is studied and related to the mobile subscriber positioning issue. To our knowledge, this model is the only one of its kind as a result of the relationship between the space-time diversity and the accuracy of the timing estimation.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version