A Coverage Study of the CMSSM Based on ATLAS Sensitivity Using Fast Neural Networks Techniques

We assess the coverage properties of confidence and credible intervals on the CMSSM parameter space inferred from a Bayesian posterior and the profile likelihood based on an ATLAS sensitivity study. In order to make those calculations feasible, we introduce a new method based on neural networks to approximate the mapping between CMSSM parameters and weak-scale particle masses. Our method reduces the computational effort needed to sample the CMSSM parameter space by a factor of ~ 10^4 with respect to conventional techniques. We find that both the Bayesian posterior and the profile likelihood intervals can significantly over-cover and identify the origin of this effect to physical boundaries in the parameter space. Finally, we point out that the effects intrinsic to the statistical procedure are conflated with simplifications to the likelihood functions from the experiments themselves.Comment: Further checks about accuracy of neural network approximation, fixed typos, added refs. Main results unchanged. Matches version accepted by JHE

Efficient time-dependent system reliability analysis

Engineering systems are usually subjected to time-variant loads and operate under time-dependent uncertainty; system performances are therefore time-dependent. Accurate and efficient estimate of system reliability is crucial for decision makings on system design, lifetime cost estimate, maintenance strategy, etc. Although significant progresses have been made in time-independent reliability analysis for components and systems, time-dependent system reliability methodologies are still limited. This dissertation is motivated by the need of accurate and effective reliability prediction for engineering systems under time-dependent uncertainty. Based on the classic First and Second Order Reliability Method (FORM and SORM), a system reliability method is developed for multidisciplinary systems involving stationary stochastic processes. A dependent Kriging method is also developed for general components. This method accounts for dependent responses from surrogate models and is therefore more accurate than existing Kriging Monte Carlo simulation methods that neglect the dependence between responses. The extension of the dependent Kriging method to systems is also a contribution of this dissertation. To overcome the difficulty of obtaining extreme value distributions and get rid of global optimization with a double-loop procedure, a Kriging surrogate modeling method is also proposed. This method provides a new perspective of surrogate modeling for time-dependent systems and is applicable to general systems having random variables, time, and stochastic processes. The proposed methods are evaluated through a wide range of engineering systems, including a compound cylinders system, a liquid hydrogen fuel tank, function generator mechanisms, slider-crank mechanisms, and a Daniels system --Abstract, page iv

Simulation methods for reliability-based design optimization and model updating of civil engineering structures and systems

This thesis presents a collection of original contributions pertaining to the subjects of reliability-based design optimization (RBDO) and model updating of civil engineering structures and systems. In this regard, probability theory concepts and tools are instrumental in the formulation of the herein reported developments. Firstly, two approaches are devised for the RBDO of structural dynamical systems under stochastic excitation. Namely, a stochastic search technique is proposed for constrained and unconstrained RBDO problems involving continuous, discrete and mixed discrete-continuous design spaces, whereas an efficient sensitivity assessment framework for linear stochastic structures is implemented to identify optimal designs and evaluate their sensitivities. Moreover, two classes of model updating problems are considered. In this context, the Bayesian interpretation of probability theory plays a key role in the proposed solution schemes. Specifically, contaminant source detection in water distribution networks is addressed by resorting to a sampling-based Bayesian model class selection framework. Furthermore, an effective strategy for Bayesian model updating with structural reliability methods is presented to treat identification problems involving structural dynamical systems, measured response data, and high-dimensional parameter spaces. The approaches proposed in this thesis integrate stochastic simulation techniques as an essential part of their formulation, which allows obtaining non-trivial information about the systems of interest as a byproduct of the solution processes. Overall, the findings presented in this thesis suggest that the reported methods can be potentially adopted as supportive tools for a number of practical decision-making processes in civil engineering.Diese Arbeit stellt eine Sammlung von Beiträgen vor, die sich mit der Reliability-based-Design-Optimization (RBDO) und dem Model updating von Strukturen und Systemen im Bauwesen befassen. In diesem Zusammenhang sind wahrscheinlichkeitstheoretische Konzepte für die Formulierung der hier vorgestellten Entwicklungen von entscheidender Bedeutung. Zunächst werden zwei Ansätze für eine RBDO von strukturdynamischen Systemen unter stochastischer Anregung entwickelt. Es wird eine stochastische Suchtechnik für beschränkte und unbeschränkte RBDO-Probleme vorgeschlagen. Diese beziehen kontinuierliche, diskrete und gemischt diskret-kontinuierliche Designräume ein. Gleichzeitig wird ein effizientes Framework zur Bewertung der Sensitivität lineare stochastische Strukturen implementiert, um optimale Designs zu identifizieren und ihre Sensitivitäten zu bewerten. Darüber hinaus werden zwei Klassen von Problem aus dem Model updating betrachtet. Der Fokus wird hierbei auf die Erkennung von Kontaminationsquellen in Wasserverteilungsnetzen mithilfe eines auf Stichproben basierenden Bayesian-Model-Class-selection-Framework gelegt. Ferner wird eine effektive Strategie zur Bearbeitung von Problemen des Bayesian-Model-updating, die strukturdynamischen Systeme, gemessene Systemantwortdaten und hochdimensionale Parameterräume umfassen, vorgestellt. Die beschriebenen Ansätze verwenden stochastische Simulationstechniken als wesentlicher Bestandteil ihrer Formulierung, wodurch nicht-triviale Informationen über betrachtete Systeme als Nebenprodukt der Lösungsprozesse gewonnen werden können. Insgesamt deuten die vorgestellten Ergebnisse dieser Arbeit darauf hin, dass die beschriebenen Methoden potenziell als unterstützende Elemente in praktischen Entscheidungsproblemen im Zusammenhang mit Strukturen und Systemen im Bauwesen eingesetzt werden können

Application of upscaling methods for fluid flow and mass transport in multi-scale heterogeneous media : A critical review

Physical and biogeochemical heterogeneity dramatically impacts fluid flow and reactive solute transport behaviors in geological formations across scales. From micro pores to regional reservoirs, upscaling has been proven to be a valid approach to estimate large-scale parameters by using data measured at small scales. Upscaling has considerable practical importance in oil and gas production, energy storage, carbon geologic sequestration, contamination remediation, and nuclear waste disposal. This review covers, in a comprehensive manner, the upscaling approaches available in the literature and their applications on various processes, such as advection, dispersion, matrix diffusion, sorption, and chemical reactions. We enclose newly developed approaches and distinguish two main categories of upscaling methodologies, deterministic and stochastic. Volume averaging, one of the deterministic methods, has the advantage of upscaling different kinds of parameters and wide applications by requiring only a few assumptions with improved formulations. Stochastic analytical methods have been extensively developed but have limited impacts in practice due to their requirement for global statistical assumptions. With rapid improvements in computing power, numerical solutions have become more popular for upscaling. In order to tackle complex fluid flow and transport problems, the working principles and limitations of these methods are emphasized. Still, a large gap exists between the approach algorithms and real-world applications. To bridge the gap, an integrated upscaling framework is needed to incorporate in the current upscaling algorithms, uncertainty quantification techniques, data sciences, and artificial intelligence to acquire laboratory and field-scale measurements and validate the upscaled models and parameters with multi-scale observations in future geo-energy research.© 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)This work was jointly supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (No. 2018YFC1800900 ), National Natural Science Foundation of China (No: 41972249 , 41772253 , 51774136 ), the Program for Jilin University (JLU) Science and Technology Innovative Research Team (No. 2019TD-35 ), Graduate Innovation Fund of Jilin University (No: 101832020CX240 ), Natural Science Foundation of Hebei Province of China ( D2017508099 ), and the Program of Education Department of Hebei Province ( QN219320 ). Additional funding was provided by the Engineering Research Center of Geothermal Resources Development Technology and Equipment , Ministry of Education, China.fi=vertaisarvioitu|en=peerReviewed

A robust method for reliability updating with equality information using sequential adaptive importance sampling

Reliability updating refers to a problem that integrates Bayesian updating technique with structural reliability analysis and cannot be directly solved by structural reliability methods (SRMs) when it involves equality information. The state-of-the-art approaches transform equality information into inequality information by introducing an auxiliary standard normal parameter. These methods, however, encounter the loss of computational efficiency due to the difficulty in finding the maximum of the likelihood function, the large coefficient of variation (COV) associated with the posterior failure probability and the inapplicability to dynamic updating problems where new information is constantly available. To overcome these limitations, this paper proposes an innovative method called RU-SAIS (reliability updating using sequential adaptive importance sampling), which combines elements of sequential importance sampling and K-means clustering to construct a series of important sampling densities (ISDs) using Gaussian mixture. The last ISD of the sequence is further adaptively modified through application of the cross entropy method. The performance of RU-SAIS is demonstrated by three examples. Results show that RU-SAIS achieves a more accurate and robust estimator of the posterior failure probability than the existing methods such as subset simulation.Comment: 38 pages, 6 tables, 9 figure

Computational statistics using the Bayesian Inference Engine

This paper introduces the Bayesian Inference Engine (BIE), a general parallel, optimised software package for parameter inference and model selection. This package is motivated by the analysis needs of modern astronomical surveys and the need to organise and reuse expensive derived data. The BIE is the first platform for computational statistics designed explicitly to enable Bayesian update and model comparison for astronomical problems. Bayesian update is based on the representation of high-dimensional posterior distributions using metric-ball-tree based kernel density estimation. Among its algorithmic offerings, the BIE emphasises hybrid tempered MCMC schemes that robustly sample multimodal posterior distributions in high-dimensional parameter spaces. Moreover, the BIE is implements a full persistence or serialisation system that stores the full byte-level image of the running inference and previously characterised posterior distributions for later use. Two new algorithms to compute the marginal likelihood from the posterior distribution, developed for and implemented in the BIE, enable model comparison for complex models and data sets. Finally, the BIE was designed to be a collaborative platform for applying Bayesian methodology to astronomy. It includes an extensible object-oriented and easily extended framework that implements every aspect of the Bayesian inference. By providing a variety of statistical algorithms for all phases of the inference problem, a scientist may explore a variety of approaches with a single model and data implementation. Additional technical details and download details are available from http://www.astro.umass.edu/bie. The BIE is distributed under the GNU GPL.Comment: Resubmitted version. Additional technical details and download details are available from http://www.astro.umass.edu/bie. The BIE is distributed under the GNU GP

Optimisation methods in structural systems reliability

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