Using imprecise continuous time Markov chains for assessing the reliability of power networks with common cause failure and non-immediate repair.

We explore how imprecise continuous time Markov chains can improve traditional reliability models based on precise continuous time Markov chains. Specifically, we analyse the reliability of power networks under very weak statistical assumptions, explicitly accounting for non-stationary failure and repair rates and the limited accuracy by which common cause failure rates can be estimated. Bounds on typical quantities of interest are derived, namely the expected time spent in system failure state, as well as the expected number of transitions to that state. A worked numerical example demonstrates the theoretical techniques described. Interestingly, the number of iterations required for convergence is observed to be much lower than current theoretical bounds

Genetic Algorithms in Real-Time Imprecise Computing

This article describes the use of genetic algorithms in real-time systems that employ the imprecise computation paradigm. In real-time systems, the focus is on ensuring that a set of tasks each complete within their deadlines. Faults may occur in the computation or the environment that can cause missed deadlines. That is why the idea of using partial results, when exact ones cannot be produced within the deadline, has been introduced. This idea has been formalized using the concepts of anytime algorithms and imprecise computation and specific techniques have been developed for designing programs which can produce partial results and for developing systems that can support imprecise computation techniques. Genetic algorithms are methods that can be, without any adaptation, used in an imprecise computation system. They produce a solution that bears a certain measure of reliability. During the process of their execution, this solution is constant ly improving. They can be used as a part of a real-time system, especially for optimizing tasks where the classical algorithms are not applicable or its computational time proves to be too expensive

System reliability optimization : a fuzzy genetic algorithm approach

System reliability optimization is often faced with imprecise and conflicting goals such as reducing the cost of the system and improving the reliability of the system. The decision making process becomes fuzzy and multi-objective. In this paper, we formulate the problem as a fuzzy multi-objective nonlinear program (FMOOP). A fuzzy multiobjective genetic algorithm approach (FMGA) is proposed for solving the multi-objective decision problem in order to handle the fuzzy goals and constraints. The approach is able flexible and adaptable, allowing for intermediate solutions, leading to high quality solutions. Thus, the approach incorporates the preferences of the decision maker concerning the cost and reliability goals through the use of fuzzy numbers. The utility of the approach is demonstrated on benchmark problems in the literature. Computational results show that the FMGA approach is promising

Multi-criteria reliability optimization for a complex system with a bridge structure in a fuzzy environment : A fuzzy multi-criteria genetic algorithm approach

Abstract: Optimizing system reliability in a fuzzy environment is complex due to the presence of imprecise multiple decision criteria such as maximizing system reliability and minimizing system cost. This calls for multi-criteria decision making approaches that incorporate fuzzy set theory concepts and heuristic methods. This paper presents a fuzzy multi-criteria nonlinear model, and proposes a fuzzy multi-criteria genetic algorithm (FMGA) for complex bridge system reliability design in a fuzzy environment. The algorithm uses fuzzy multi-criteria evaluation techniques to handle fuzzy goals, preferences, and constraints. The evaluation approach incorporates fuzzy preferences and expert choices of the decision maker in regards to cost and reliability goals. Fuzzy evaluation gives the algorithm flexibility and adaptability, yielding near-optimal solutions within short computation times. Results from computational experiments based on benchmark problems demonstrate that the FMGA approach is a more reliable and effective approach than best known algorithm, especially in a fuzzy multi-criteria environment

FRAM for systemic accident analysis: a matrix representation of functional resonance

Due to the inherent complexity of nowadays Air Traffic Management (ATM) system, standard methods looking at an event as a linear sequence of failures might become inappropriate. For this purpose, adopting a systemic perspective, the Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM) originally developed by Hollnagel, helps identifying non-linear combinations of events and interrelationships. This paper aims to enhance the strength of FRAM-based accident analyses, discussing the Resilience Analysis Matrix (RAM), a user-friendly tool that supports the analyst during the analysis, in order to reduce the complexity of representation of FRAM. The RAM offers a two dimensional representation which highlights systematically connections among couplings, and thus even highly connected group of couplings. As an illustrative case study, this paper develops a systemic accident analysis for the runway incursion happened in February 1991 at LAX airport, involving SkyWest Flight 5569 and USAir Flight 1493. FRAM confirms itself a powerful method to characterize the variability of the operational scenario, identifying the dynamic couplings with a critical role during the event and helping discussing the systemic effects of variability at different level of analysis

Bayesian nonparametric system reliability using sets of priors

An imprecise Bayesian nonparametric approach to system reliability with multiple types of components is developed. This allows modelling partial or imperfect prior knowledge on component failure distributions in a flexible way through bounds on the functioning probability. Given component level test data these bounds are propagated to bounds on the posterior predictive distribution for the functioning probability of a new system containing components exchangeable with those used in testing. The method further enables identification of prior–data conflict at the system level based on component level test data. New results on first-order stochastic dominance for the Beta-Binomial distribution make the technique computationally tractable. Our methodological contributions can be immediately used in applications by reliability practitioners as we provide easy to use software tools