Managing Uncertainty and Vagueness in Semantic Web

Ο Σημασιολογικός Ιστός στοχεύει στην διεκπεραίωση εργασιών σε υπολογιστικά συστήματα χωρίς την ανθρώπινη παρέμβαση. Προκειμένου να επιτευχθεί ο στόχος αυτός, εισάγεται η έννοια της πληροφορίας που είναι επεξεργάσιμη από μηχανές. Στα περισσότερα προβλήματα, η έννοια της πληροφορίας είναι συνυφασμένη με την έννοια της αβεβαιότητας και της ασάφειας. Και οι δύο έννοιες περιγράφονται με την κοινή ονομασία ατελής πληροφορία. Δεδομένου ότι ο Σημασιολογικός Ιστός απαρτίζεται από ένα σύνολο τεχνολογιών και των θεωριών που τις διέπουν, οποιαδήποτε μέθοδος αναπαράστασης θα πρέπει να βρίσκεται σε συμφωνία με άλλες υπάρχουσες. Συγκεκριμένα, το θεωρητικό πλαίσιο πρέπει να εντάσσεται ομαλά στη θεωρία που εφαρμόζεται στο Σημασιολογικό Ιστό. Η δε υλοποίησή του, ιδανικό είναι, να υποστηριχθεί με χρήση μεθόδων του Σημασιολογικού Ιστού, στις οποίες κυριαρχεί εκείνη των οντολογιών. Στη διατριβή μας, ορίσαμε μία μέθοδο αναπαράστασης της αβεβαιότητας και της ασάφειας μέσω ενός ενιαίου πλαισίου. Το μοντέλο Dempster-Shafer χρησιμοποιήθηκε για την αναπαράσταση της αβεβαιότητας και το μοντέλο Ασαφούς Λογικής και Ασαφών Συνόλων για την αναπαράσταση της ασάφειας. Για το λόγο αυτό, ορίσαμε το θεωρητικό πλαίσιο, στοχεύοντας σε ένα συνδυασμό ALC Λογικών Περιγραφών (Description Logics) με το μοντέλο Dempster-Shafer. Κατά τη διάρκεια της έρευνάς μας υλοποιήσαμε μεταοντολογίες για την αναπαράσταση της αβεβαιότητας και της ασάφειας και στη συνέχεια μελετήσαμε την συμπεριφορά τους σε πραγματικές εφαρμογές.Semantic Web has been designed for processing tasks without human intervention. In this context, the term machine processable information has been introduced. In most Semantic Web tasks, we come across information incompleteness issues, aka uncertainty and vagueness. For this reason, a method that represents uncertainty and vagueness under a common framework has to be defined. Semantic Web technologies are defined through a Semantic Web Stack and are based on a clear formal foundation. Therefore, any representation scheme should be aligned with these technologies and be formally defined. As the concept of ontologies is significant in the Semantic Web for representing knowledge, any framework is desirable to be built upon it. In our work, we have defined an approach for representing uncertainty and vagueness under a common framework. Uncertainty is represented through Dempster-Shafer model, whereas vagueness has been represented through Fuzzy Logic and Fuzzy Sets. For this reason, we have defined our theoretical framework, aimed at a combination of the classical crisp DL ALC with a Dempster-Shafer module. As a next step, we added fuzziness to this model. Throughout our work, we have implemented metaontologies in order to represent uncertain and vague concepts and, next, we have tested our methodology in real-world applications

ISIPTA'07: Proceedings of the Fifth International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications

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Confirmation, Decision, and Evidential Probability

Henry Kyburg’s theory of Evidential Probability offers a neglected tool for approaching problems in confirmation theory and decision theory. I use Evidential Probability to examine some persistent problems within these areas of the philosophy of science. Formal tools in general and probability theory in particular have great promise for conceptual analysis in confirmation theory and decision theory, but they face many challenges. In each chapter, I apply Evidential Probability to a specific issue in confirmation theory or decision theory. In Chapter 1, I challenge the notion that Bayesian probability offers the best basis for a probabilistic theory of evidence. In Chapter 2, I criticise the conventional measures of quantities of evidence that use the degree of imprecision of imprecise probabilities. In Chapter 3, I develop an alternative to orthodox utility-maximizing decision theory using Kyburg’s system. In Chapter 4, I confront the orthodox notion that Nelson Goodman’s New Riddle of Induction makes purely formal theories of induction untenable. Finally, in Chapter 5, I defend probabilistic theories of inductive reasoning against John D. Norton’s recent collection of criticisms. My aim is the development of fresh perspectives on classic problems and contemporary debates. I both defend and exemplify a formal approach to the philosophy of science. I argue that Evidential Probability has great potential for clarifying our concepts of evidence and rationality

Stochastic Reasoning with Action Probabilistic Logic Programs

In the real world, there is a constant need to reason about the behavior of various entities. A soccer goalie could benefit from information available about past penalty kicks by the same player facing him now. National security experts could benefit from the ability to reason about behaviors of terror groups. By applying behavioral models, an organization may get a better understanding about how best to target their efforts and achieve their goals. In this thesis, we propose action probabilistic logic (or ap-) programs, a formalism designed for reasoning about the probability of events whose inter-dependencies are unknown. We investigate how to use ap-programs to reason in the kinds of scenarios described above. Our approach is based on probabilistic logic programming, a well known formalism for reasoning under uncertainty, which has been shown to be highly flexible since it allows imprecise probabilities to be specified in the form of intervals that convey the inherent uncertainty in the knowledge. Furthermore, no independence assumptions are made, in contrast to many of the probabilistic reasoning formalisms that have been proposed. Up to now, all work in probabilistic logic programming has focused on the problem of entailment, i.e., verifying if a given formula follows from the available knowledge. In this thesis, we argue that other problems also need to be solved for this kind of reasoning. The three main problems we address are: Computing most probable worlds: what is the most likely set of actions given the current state of affairs?; answering abductive queries: how can we effect changes in the environment in order to evoke certain desired actions?; and Reasoning about promises: given the importance of promises and how they are fulfilled, how can we incorporate quantitative knowledge about promise fulfillment in ap-programs? We address different variants of these problems, propose exact and heuristic algorithms to scalably solve them, present empirical evaluations of their performance, and discuss their application in real world scenarios

Transformation of graphical models to support knowledge transfer

Menschliche Experten verfügen über die Fähigkeit, ihr Entscheidungsverhalten flexibel auf die jeweilige Situation abzustimmen. Diese Fähigkeit zahlt sich insbesondere dann aus, wenn Entscheidungen unter beschränkten Ressourcen wie Zeitrestriktionen getroffen werden müssen. In solchen Situationen ist es besonders vorteilhaft, die Repräsentation des zugrunde liegenden Wissens anpassen und Entscheidungsmodelle auf unterschiedlichen Abstraktionsebenen verwenden zu können. Weiterhin zeichnen sich menschliche Experten durch die Fähigkeit aus, neben unsicheren Informationen auch unscharfe Wahrnehmungen in die Entscheidungsfindung einzubeziehen. Klassische entscheidungstheoretische Modelle basieren auf dem Konzept der Rationalität, wobei in jeder Situation die nutzenmaximale Entscheidung einer Entscheidungsfunktion zugeordnet wird. Neuere graphbasierte Modelle wie Bayes\u27sche Netze oder Entscheidungsnetze machen entscheidungstheoretische Methoden unter dem Aspekt der Modellbildung interessant. Als Hauptnachteil lässt sich die Komplexität nennen, wobei Inferenz in Entscheidungsnetzen NP-hart ist. Zielsetzung dieser Dissertation ist die Transformation entscheidungstheoretischer Modelle in Fuzzy-Regelbasen als Zielsprache. Fuzzy-Regelbasen lassen sich effizient auswerten, eignen sich zur Approximation nichtlinearer funktionaler Beziehungen und garantieren die Interpretierbarkeit des resultierenden Handlungsmodells. Die Übersetzung eines Entscheidungsmodells in eine Fuzzy-Regelbasis wird durch einen neuen Transformationsprozess unterstützt. Ein Agent kann zunächst ein Bayes\u27sches Netz durch Anwendung eines in dieser Arbeit neu vorgestellten parametrisierten Strukturlernalgorithmus generieren lassen. Anschließend lässt sich durch Anwendung von Präferenzlernverfahren und durch Präzisierung der Wahrscheinlichkeitsinformation ein entscheidungstheoretisches Modell erstellen. Ein Transformationsalgorithmus kompiliert daraus eine Regelbasis, wobei ein Approximationsmaß den erwarteten Nutzenverlust als Gütekriterium berechnet. Anhand eines Beispiels zur Zustandsüberwachung einer Rotationsspindel wird die Praxistauglichkeit des Konzeptes gezeigt.Human experts are able to flexible adjust their decision behaviour with regard to the respective situation. This capability pays in situations under limited resources like time restrictions. It is particularly advantageous to adapt the underlying knowledge representation and to make use of decision models at different levels of abstraction. Furthermore human experts have the ability to include uncertain information and vague perceptions in decision making. Classical decision-theoretic models are based directly on the concept of rationality, whereby the decision behaviour prescribed by the principle of maximum expected utility. For each observation some optimal decision function prescribes an action that maximizes expected utility. Modern graph-based methods like Bayesian networks or influence diagrams make use of modelling. One disadvantage of decision-theoretic methods concerns the issue of complexity. Finding an optimal decision might become very expensive. Inference in decision networks is known to be NP-hard. This dissertation aimed at combining the advantages of decision-theoretic models with rule-based systems by transforming a decision-theoretic model into a fuzzy rule-based system. Fuzzy rule bases are an efficient implementation from a computational point of view, they can approximate non-linear functional dependencies and they are also intelligible. There was a need for establishing a new transformation process to generate rule-based representations from decision models, which provide an efficient implementation architecture and represent knowledge in an explicit, intelligible way. At first, an agent can apply the new parameterized structure learning algorithm to identify the structure of the Bayesian network. The use of learning approaches to determine preferences and the specification of probability information subsequently enables to model decision and utility nodes and to generate a consolidated decision-theoretic model. Hence, a transformation process compiled a rule base by measuring the utility loss as approximation measure. The transformation process concept has been successfully applied to the problem of representing condition monitoring results for a rotation spindle

Foundations of Fuzzy Logic and Semantic Web Languages

This book is the first to combine coverage of fuzzy logic and Semantic Web languages. It provides in-depth insight into fuzzy Semantic Web languages for non-fuzzy set theory and fuzzy logic experts. It also helps researchers of non-Semantic Web languages get a better understanding of the theoretical fundamentals of Semantic Web languages. The first part of the book covers all the theoretical and logical aspects of classical (two-valued) Semantic Web languages. The second part explains how to generalize these languages to cope with fuzzy set theory and fuzzy logic

Foundations of Fuzzy Logic and Semantic Web Languages

This book is the first to combine coverage of fuzzy logic and Semantic Web languages. It provides in-depth insight into fuzzy Semantic Web languages for non-fuzzy set theory and fuzzy logic experts. It also helps researchers of non-Semantic Web languages get a better understanding of the theoretical fundamentals of Semantic Web languages. The first part of the book covers all the theoretical and logical aspects of classical (two-valued) Semantic Web languages. The second part explains how to generalize these languages to cope with fuzzy set theory and fuzzy logic

An Approach for Intention-Driven, Dialogue-Based Web Search

Web search engines facilitate the achievement of Web-mediated tasks, including information retrieval, Web page navigation, and online transactions. These tasks often involve goals that pertain to multiple topics, or domains. Current search engines are not suitable for satisfying complex, multi-domain needs due to their lack of interactivity and knowledge. This thesis presents a novel intention-driven, dialogue-based Web search approach that uncovers and combines users\u27 multi-domain goals to provide helpful virtual assistance. The intention discovery procedure uses a hierarchy of Partially Observable Markov Decision Process-based dialogue managers and a backing knowledge base to systematically explore the dialogue\u27s information space, probabilistically refining the perception of user goals. The search approach has been implemented in IDS, a search engine for online gift shopping. A usability study comparing IDS-based searching with Google-based searching found that the IDS-based approach takes significantly less time and effort, and results in higher user confidence in the retrieved results