On inferring isoprene emission surface flux from atmospheric boundary layer concentration measurements

We examine the dependence of the inferred isoprene surface emission flux from atmospheric concentration on the diurnal variability of the convective boundary layer (CBL). A series of systematic numerical experiments carried out using the mixed-layer technique enabled us to study the sensitivity of isoprene fluxes to the entrainment process, the partition of surface fluxes, the horizontal advection of warm/cold air masses and subsidence. Our findings demonstrate the key role played by the evolution of boundary layer height in modulating the retrieved isoprene flux. More specifically, inaccurate values of the potential temperature lapse rate lead to changes in the dilution capacity of the CBL and as a result the isoprene flux may be overestimated or underestimated by as much as 20%. The inferred emission flux estimated in the early morning hours is highly dependent on the accurate estimation of the discontinuity of the thermodynamic values between the residual layer and the rapidly forming CBL. Uncertainties associated with the partition of the sensible and latent heat flux also yield large deviations in the calculation of the isoprene surface flux. Similar results are obtained if we neglect the influence of warm or cold advection in the development of the CBL.We show that all the above-mentioned processes are non-linear, for which reason the dynamic and chemical evolutions of the CBL must be solved simultaneously. Based on the discussion of our results, we suggest the measurements needed to correctly apply the mixed-layer technique in order to minimize the uncertainties associated with the diurnal variability of the convective boundary layer

Parameter identifiability of fundamental pharmacodynamic models

Issues of parameter identifiability of routinely used pharmacodynamics models are considered in this paper. The structural identifiability of 16 commonly applied pharmacodynamic model structures was analyzed analytically, using the input-output approach. Both fixed-effects versions (non-population, no between-subject variability) and mixed-effects versions (population, including between-subject variability) of each model structure were analyzed. All models were found to be structurally globally identifiable under conditions of fixing either one of two particular parameters. Furthermore, an example was constructed to illustrate the importance of sufficient data quality and show that structural identifiability is a prerequisite, but not a guarantee, for successful parameter estimation and practical parameter identifiability. This analysis was performed by generating artificial data of varying quality to a structurally identifiable model with known true parameter values, followed by re-estimation of the parameter values. In addition, to show the benefit of including structural identifiability as part of model development, a case study was performed applying an unidentifiable model to real experimental data. This case study shows how performing such an analysis prior to parameter estimation can improve the parameter estimation process and model performance. Finally, an unidentifiable model was fitted to simulated data using multiple initial parameter values, resulting in highly different estimated uncertainties. This example shows that although the standard errors of the parameter estimates often indicate a structural identifiability issue, reasonably “good” standard errors may sometimes mask unidentifiability issues

Numerical Investigation of Two-Phase Flow through a Fault

Imperial Users onl

Helioseismology, solar models and neutrino fluxes

We present our results concerning a systematical analysis of helioseismic implications on solar structure and neutrino production. We find Y$_{ph}=0.238-0.259$, $R_b/R_\odot=0.708-0.714$ and $\rho_b=(0.185-0.199)$ gr/cm$^3$. In the interval $0.2<R/R_\odot<0.65$, the quantity $U=P/\rho$ is determined with and accuracy of $\pm 5$\permille~or better. At the solar center still one has remarkable accuracy, $\Delta U/U <4$. We compare the predictions of recent solar models (standard and non-standard) with the helioseismic results. By constructing helioseismically constrained solar models, the central solar temperature is found to be $T=1.58 \times 10^7$K with a conservatively estimated accuracy of 1.4%, so that the major unceratainty on neutrino fluxes is due to nuclear cross section and not to solar inputs.Comment: 14 pages including 9 figures, LaTex file, espcrc2.sty is needed; to appear in Nucl. Phys. B Proc. Suppl., Proceedings of TAUP97 conference, Laboratori Nazionali del Gran Sasso, September 199

Profiling of fine and coarse particle mass : Case studies of Saharan dust and Eyjafjallajökull/Grimsvötn volcanic plumes

© Author(s) 2012. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 LicenseThe polarization lidar photometer networking (POLIPHON) method introduced to separate coarse-mode and fine-mode particle properties of Eyjafjallajokull volcanic aerosols in 2010 is extended to cover Saharan dust events as well. Furthermore, new volcanic dust observations performed after the Grimsvotn volcanic eruptions in 2011 are presented. The retrieval of particle mass concentrations requires mass-specific extinction coefficients. Therefore, a review of recently published mass-specific extinction coefficients for Saharan dust and volcanic dust is given. Case studies of four different scenarios corroborate the applicability of the profiling technique: (a) Saharan dust outbreak to central Europe, (b) Saharan dust plume mixed with biomass-burning smoke over Cape Verde, and volcanic aerosol layers originating from (c) the Eyjafjallajokull eruptions in 2010 and (d) the Grimsvotn eruptions in 2011. Strong differences in the vertical aerosol layering, aerosol mixing, and optical properties are observed for the different volcanic eventsPeer reviewe

PADAMOT : project overview report

Background and relevance to radioactive waste management International consensus confirms that placing radioactive wastes and spent nuclear fuel deep underground in a geological repository is the generally preferred option for their long-term management and disposal. This strategy provides a number of advantages compared to leaving it on or near the Earth’s surface. These advantages come about because, for a well chosen site, the geosphere can provide: • a physical barrier that can negate or buffer against the effects of surface dominated natural disruptive processes such as deep weathering, glaciation, river and marine erosion or flooding, asteroid/comet impact and earthquake shaking etc. • long and slow groundwater return pathways from the facility to the biosphere along which retardation, dilution and dispersion processes may operate to reduce radionuclide concentration in the groundwater. • a stable, and benign geochemical environment to maximise the longevity of the engineered barriers such as the waste containers and backfill in the facility. • a natural radiation shield around the wastes. • a mechanically stable environment in which the facility can be constructed and will afterwards be protected. • an environment which reduces the likelihood of the repository being disturbed by inadvertent human intrusion such as land use changes, construction projects, drilling, quarrying and mining etc. • protection against the effects of deliberate human activities such as vandalism, terrorism and war etc. However, safety considerations for storing and disposing of long-lived radioactive wastes must take into account various scenarios that might affect the ability of the geosphere to provide the functionality listed above. Therefore, in order to provide confidence in the ability of a repository to perform within the deep geological setting at a particular site, a demonstration of geosphere “stability” needs to be made. Stability is defined here to be the capacity of a geological and hydrogeological system to minimise the impact of external influences on the repository environment, or at least to account for them in a manner that would allow their impacts to be evaluated and accounted for in any safety assessments. A repository should be sited where the deep geosphere is a stable host in which the engineered containment can continue to perform according to design and in which the surrounding hydrogeological, geomechanical and geochemical environment will continue to operate as a natural barrier to radionuclide movement towards the biosphere. However, over the long periods of time during which long-lived radioactive wastes will pose a hazard, environmental change at the surface has the potential to disrupt the stability of the geosphere and therefore the causes of environmental change and their potential consequences need to be evaluated. As noted above, environmental change can include processes such as deep weathering, glaciation, river and marine erosion. It can also lead to changes in groundwater boundary conditions through alternating recharge/discharge relationships. One of the key drivers for environmental change is climate variability. The question then arises, how can geosphere stability be assessed with respect to changes in climate? Key issues raised in connection with this are: • What evidence is there that 'going underground' eliminates the extreme conditions that storage on the surface would be subjected to in the long term? • How can the additional stability and safety of the deep geosphere be demonstrated with evidence from the natural system? As a corollary to this, the capacity of repository sites deep underground in stable rock masses to mitigate potential impacts of future climate change on groundwater conditions therefore needs to be tested and demonstrated. To date, generic scenarios for groundwater evolution relating to climate change are currently weakly constrained by data and process understanding. Hence, the possibility of site-specific changes of groundwater conditions in the future can only be assessed and demonstrated by studying groundwater evolution in the past. Stability of groundwater conditions in the past is an indication of future stability, though both the climatic and geological contexts must be taken into account in making such an assertion

Characterizing two solar-type Kepler subgiants with asteroseismology: KIC10920273 and KIC11395018

Determining fundamental properties of stars through stellar modeling has improved substantially due to recent advances in asteroseismology. Thanks to the unprecedented data quality obtained by space missions, particularly CoRoT and Kepler, invaluable information is extracted from the high-precision stellar oscillation frequencies, which provide very strong constraints on possible stellar models for a given set of classical observations. In this work, we have characterized two relatively faint stars, KIC10920273 and KIC11395018, using oscillation data from Kepler photometry and atmospheric constraints from ground-based spectroscopy. Both stars have very similar atmospheric properties; however, using the individual frequencies extracted from the Kepler data, we have determined quite distinct global properties, with increased precision compared to that of earlier results. We found that both stars have left the main sequence and characterized them as follows: KIC10920273 is a one-solar-mass star (M=1.00 +/- 0.04 M_sun), but much older than our Sun (t=7.12 +/- 0.47 Gyr), while KIC11395018 is significantly more massive than the Sun (M=1.27 +/- 0.04 M_sun) with an age close to that of the Sun (t=4.57 +/- 0.23 Gyr). We confirm that the high lithium abundance reported for these stars should not be considered to represent young ages, as we precisely determined them to be evolved subgiants. We discuss the use of surface lithium abundance, rotation and activity relations as potential age diagnostics.Comment: 12 pages, 3 figures, 5 tables. Accepted by Ap