Adequate Moods for Non-EU Decision Making in a Sequential Framework

In a dynamic (sequential) framework, departures from the independence axiom (IND) are reputed to induce violations of dynamic consistency (DC), which may in turn have undesirable normative consequences. This result thus questions the normative acceptability of non expected-utility (non-EU) models, which precisely relax IND. This paper pursues a twofold objective. The main one is to discuss the normative conclusion: we show that usual arguments linking violations of DC to departures from IND are actually based on specific (but usually remaining implicit) assumptions which may rightfully be released, so that it is actually possible for a non-EU maximizer to be dynamically consistent and thus avoid normative difficulties. Our second objective is to introduce a kind of 'reality principle' (through two other evaluation criteria) in order to mitigate the normative requirement when examining adequate moods for non-EU decision making.Non-expected utility, sequential choice, dynamic consistency, money pump, consequentialism.

Naïve, Resolute or Sophisticated? A Study of Dynamic Decision Making

Dynamically inconsistent decision makers have to decide, implicitly or explicitly, what to do about their dynamic inconsistency. Economic theorists have identified three possible responses – to act naively (thus ignoring the dynamic inconsistency), to act resolutely (not letting their inconsistency affect their behaviour) or to act sophisticatedly (hence taking into account their inconsistency). We use data from a unique experiment (which observes both decisions and evaluations) in order to distinguish these three possibilities. We find that the majority of subjects are either naïve or resolute (with slightly more being naïve) but very few are sophisticated. These results have important implications for predicting the behaviour of people in dynamic situations.Dynamic decision making, naivety, sophistication, resoluteness, dynamic inconsistencies

Rationality and dynamic consistency under risk and uncertainty

For choice with deterministic consequences, the standard rationality hypothesis is ordinality - i.e., maximization of a weak preference ordering. For choice under risk (resp. uncertainty), preferences are assumed to be represented by the objectively (resp. subjectively) expected value of a von Neumann{Morgenstern utility function. For choice under risk, this implies a key independence axiom; under uncertainty, it implies some version of Savage's sure thing principle. This chapter investigates the extent to which ordinality, independence, and the sure thing principle can be derived from more fundamental axioms concerning behaviour in decision trees. Following Cubitt (1996), these principles include dynamic consistency, separability, and reduction of sequential choice, which can be derived in turn from one consequentialist hypothesis applied to continuation subtrees as well as entire decision trees. Examples of behavior violating these principles are also reviewed, as are possible explanations of why such violations are often observed in experiments

Quantify resilience enhancement of UTS through exploiting connect community and internet of everything emerging technologies

This work aims at investigating and quantifying the Urban Transport System (UTS) resilience enhancement enabled by the adoption of emerging technology such as Internet of Everything (IoE) and the new trend of the Connected Community (CC). A conceptual extension of Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM) and its formalization have been proposed and used to model UTS complexity. The scope is to identify the system functions and their interdependencies with a particular focus on those that have a relation and impact on people and communities. Network analysis techniques have been applied to the FRAM model to identify and estimate the most critical community-related functions. The notion of Variability Rate (VR) has been defined as the amount of output variability generated by an upstream function that can be tolerated/absorbed by a downstream function, without significantly increasing of its subsequent output variability. A fuzzy based quantification of the VR on expert judgment has been developed when quantitative data are not available. Our approach has been applied to a critical scenario (water bomb/flash flooding) considering two cases: when UTS has CC and IoE implemented or not. The results show a remarkable VR enhancement if CC and IoE are deploye

Adequate Moods for Non-EU Decision Making in a Sequential Framework: A synthetic Discussion

dernière version avant publicationIn a dynamic (sequential) framework, departures from the independence axiom (IND) are reputed to induce violations of dynamic consistency (DC), which may in turn have undesirable normative consequences. This result thus questions the normative acceptability of non expected-utility (non-EU) models, which precisely relax IND. This paper pursues a twofold objective. The main one is to discuss the normative conclusion: we show that usual arguments linking violations of DC to departures from IND are actually based on specific (but usually remaining implicit) assumptions which may rightfully be released, so that it is actually possible for a non-EU maximizer to be dynamically consistent and thus avoid normative difficulties. Our second objective is to introduce a kind of 'reality principle' (through two other evaluation criteria) in order to mitigate the normative requirement when examining adequate moods for non-EU decision making

Bargaining in public : resolve and publicity in international crises

How actors credibly signal resolve has been an enduring question for both scholars and policy makers. The existing literature disagrees on the effects of public threats on signaling resolve and the effects of political constraints on crisis outcomes. This dissertation examines how leaders use public threats to signal resolve from two new perspectives. First, citizens are concerned both about national prestige and about crisis outcomes, the latter of which are shaped by their resolve. Second, leaders adjust their vulnerability to political punishment by controlling the publicity of their threats. By locating resolve in the public and allowing leaders to choose the level of publicity during a crisis, the dissertation offers an integrated framework to understand the apparently disparate strategies of leaders under different levels of political accountability. Moderately accountable leaders increase the level of publicity to signal the public's resolve, whereas highly accountable leaders lower publicity to signal the public's resolve. I also identify the conditional effects of political accountability on the risks of war with statistical support. Finally, assuming that leaders know their citizens' resolve no better than foreign targets, I find that dovish citizens may pretend to be supportive of war if leaders tend to increase publicity in any crisis. This project reconciles the conventional audience costs theory and its critics. It specifies the linkage between a leader's choice of publicity and signaling resolve. It also suggests that political accountability may produce perverse outcomes costly to the public. Finally, I discuss the implication of this project to U.S. foreign policy and mass mobilization in international crisis.Governmen

Who likes circus animals?

Using a sample based on 268 questionnaires submitted to people attending the Acquatico Bellucci circus, Italy, this paper analyzes the circusgoers's preferences for circus animals. Results show that higher preferences for circus animals are related to frequency of consumption. However, differently from what commonly expected, more educated and younger people seem to be less sensitive to the claims of animal welfare organizations.demand; performing arts; Italy; attendance.