Multivariate time series analysis for short-term forecasting of ground level ozone (O3) in Malaysia

The declining of air quality mostly affects the elderly, children, people with asthma, as well as a restriction on outdoor activities. Therefore, there is an importance to provide a statistical modelling to forecast the future values of surface layer ozone (O3) concentration. The objectives of this study are to obtain the best multivariate time series (MTS) model and develop an online air quality forecasting system for O3 concentration in Malaysia. The implementations of MTS model improve the recent statistical model on air quality for short-term prediction. Ten air quality monitoring stations situated at four (4) different types of location were selected in this study. The first type is industrial represent by Pasir Gudang, Perai, and Nilai, second type is urban represent by Kuala Terengganu, Kota Bharu, and Alor Setar. The third is suburban located in Banting, Kangar, and Tanjung Malim, also the only background station at Jerantut. The hourly record data from 2010 to 2017 were used to assess the characteristics and behaviour of O3 concentration. Meanwhile, the monthly record data of O3, particulate matter (PM10), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulphur dioxide (SO2), carbon monoxide (CO), temperature (T), wind speed (WS), and relative humidity (RH) were used to examine the best MTS models. Three methods of MTS namely vector autoregressive (VAR), vector moving average (VMA), and vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA), has been applied in this study. Based on the performance error, the most appropriate MTS model located in Pasir Gudang, Kota Bharu and Kangar is VAR(1), Kuala Terengganu and Alor Setar for VAR(2), Perai and Nilai for VAR(3), Tanjung Malim for VAR(4) and Banting for VAR(5). Only Jerantut obtained the VMA(2) as the best model. The lowest root mean square error (RMSE) and normalized absolute error is 0.0053 and <0.0001 which is for MTS model in Perai and Kuala Terengganu, respectively. Meanwhile, for mean absolute error (MAE), the lowest is in Banting and Jerantut at 0.0013. The online air quality forecasting system for O3 was successfully developed based on the best MTS models to represent each monitoring station

Causative factors of construction and demolition waste generation in Iraq Construction Industry

The construction industry has hurt the environment from the waste generated during construction activities. Thus, it calls for serious measures to determine the causative factors of construction waste generated. There are limited studies on factors causing construction, and demolition (C&D) waste generation, and these limited studies only focused on the quantification of construction waste. This study took the opportunity to identify the causative factors for the C&D waste generation and also to determine the risk level of each causal factor, and the most important minimization methods to avoiding generating waste. This study was carried out based on the quantitative approach. A total of 39 factors that causes construction waste generation that has been identified from the literature review were considered which were then clustered into 4 groups. Improved questionnaire surveys by 38 construction experts (consultants, contractors and clients) during the pilot study. The actual survey was conducted with a total of 380 questionnaires, received with a response rate of 83.3%. Data analysis was performed using SPSS software. Ranking analysis using the mean score approach found the five most significant causative factors which are poor site management, poor planning, lack of experience, rework and poor controlling. The result also indicated that the majority of the identified factors having a high-risk level, in addition, the better minimization method is environmental awareness. A structural model was developed based on the 4 groups of causative factors using the Partial Least Squared-Structural Equation Modelling (PLS-SEM) technique. It was found that the model fits due to the goodness of fit (GOF ≥ 0.36= 0.658, substantial). Based on the outcome of this study, 39 factors were relevant to the generation of construction and demolition waste in Iraq. These groups of factors should be avoided during construction works to reduce the waste generated. The findings of this study are helpful to authorities and stakeholders in formulating laws and regulations. Furthermore, it provides opportunities for future researchers to conduct additional research’s on the factors that contribute to construction waste generation

A Brief Review of Cuckoo Search Algorithm (CSA) Research Progression from 2010 to 2013

Cuckoo Search Algorithm is a new swarm intelligence algorithm which based on breeding behavior of the Cuckoo bird. This paper gives a brief insight of the advancement of the Cuckoo Search Algorithm from 2010 to 2013. The first half of this paper presents the publication trend of Cuckoo Search Algorithm. The remaining of this paper briefly explains the contribution of the individual publication related to Cuckoo Search Algorithm. It is believed that this paper will greatly benefit the reader who needs a bird-eyes view of the Cuckoo Search Algorithm’s publications trend

Application of hybrid machine learning models and data pre-processing to predict water level of watersheds: Recent trends and future perspective

The community’s well-being and economic livelihoods are heavily influenced by the water level of watersheds. The changes in water levels directly affect the circulation processes of lakes and rivers that control water mixing and bottom sediment resuspension, further affecting water quality and aquatic ecosystems. Thus, these considerations have made the water level monitoring process essential to save the environment. Machine learning hybrid models are emerging robust tools that are successfully applied for water level monitoring. Various models have been developed, and selecting the optimal model would be a lengthy procedure. A timely, detailed, and instructive overview of the models’ concepts and historical uses would be beneficial in preventing researchers from overlooking models’ potential selection and saving significant time on the problem. Thus, recent research on water level prediction using hybrid machines is reviewed in this article to present the “state of the art” on the subject and provide some suggestions on research methodologies and models. This comprehensive study classifies hybrid models into four types algorithm parameter optimisation-based hybrid models (OBH), pre-processing-based hybrid models (PBH), the components combination-based hybrid models (CBH), and hybridisation of parameter optimisation-based with preprocessing-based hybrid models (HOPH); furthermore, it explains the pre-processing of data in detail. Finally, the most popular optimisation methods and future perspectives and conclusions have been discussed

Swarm Intelligence-Based Hybrid Models for Short-Term Power Load Prediction

Swarm intelligence (SI) is widely and successfully applied in the engineering field to solve practical optimization problems because various hybrid models, which are based on the SI algorithm and statistical models, are developed to further improve the predictive abilities. In this paper, hybrid intelligent forecasting models based on the cuckoo search (CS) as well as the singular spectrum analysis (SSA), time series, and machine learning methods are proposed to conduct short-term power load prediction. The forecasting performance of the proposed models is augmented by a rolling multistep strategy over the prediction horizon. The test results are representative of the out-performance of the SSA and CS in tuning the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) and support vector regression (SVR) in improving load forecasting, which indicates that both the SSA-based data denoising and SI-based intelligent optimization strategy can effectively improve the model’s predictive performance. Additionally, the proposed CS-SSA-SARIMA and CS-SSA-SVR models provide very impressive forecasting results, demonstrating their strong robustness and universal forecasting capacities in terms of short-term power load prediction 24 hours in advance

Work Zone Safety Analysis, Investigating Benefits from Accelerated Bridge Construction (ABC) on Roadway Safety

The attributes of work zones have significant impacts on the risk of crash occurrence. Therefore, identifying the factors associated with crash severity and frequency in work zone locations is of important value to roadway safety. In addition, the significant loss of workers’ lives and injuries resulting from work zone crashes indicates the emergent need for a comprehensive and in-depth investigation of work zone crash mechanisms. The cost of work zone crashes is another issue that should be taken into account as work zone crashes impose millions of dollars on society each year. Applying innovative construction methods like Accelerated Bridge Construction (ABC) dramatically decreases on-site construction duration and thus improves roadway safety. This safe and cost-effective procedure for building new bridges or replacing/rehabilitating existing bridges in just a few weeks instead of months or years may prevent crashes and avoid injuries as a result of work zone presence. The application of machine learning techniques in traffic safety studies has seen explosive growth in recent years. Compared to statistical methods, MLs are more accurate prediction models due to their ability to deal with more complex functions. To this end, this study focuses on three major areas: crash severity at construction work zones with worker presence, crash frequency at bridge locations, and assessment of the associated costs to calculate the contribution of safety to the benefit-cost ratio of ABC as compared to conventional methods. Some key findings of this study can be highlighted as in-depth investigation of contributing factors in conjunction with the results from statistical and machine learning models, which can provide a more comprehensive interpretation of crash severity/frequency outcomes. The demonstration of work zone crashes needs to be modeled separately by time of day for severity analysis with a high level of confidence. Investigation of the contributing factors revealed the nonlinear relationship between crash severity/frequency and contributing factors. Finally, the results showed that the safety benefits from a case study in Florida consisted of 43% of the total ABC implementation cost. This indicates that the safety benefits of ABC implementation consist of a considerable portion of its benefit-cost ratio

Internet of Things early flood warning system with ethology input and fuzzy logic

Flood is considered as a serious natural disaster in Asia. Flood has affected millions of people in Asia in the recent years including Malaysia and its neighboring countries. The severity of the problems resulted from flood has significantly affected the government in terms of economic and social. Information Communication Technology (ICT) can be utilized in addressing flood challenge by contributing in the aspects of early flood warning as well as alerting the affected community. Early flood warning systems face several challenges in terms of warning dissemination that is not timely, people centered, accessible and explainable. Thus, this study developed an Internet of Thing (IoT) early flood warning system (IEFWS) with ethological input using fuzzy logic in order to come up with a timely, precise and low cost flood warning system. The IEFWS of fuzzy logic application included several nature input data membership functions specifically temperature, humidity, rainfall intensity, water raise rate, sound, and motion indicators were all being updated on the internet simultaneously in less then 0:00:05 seconds. This study also included an ethological input data of fish by analyzing the behavior of sound and movement of fish as indicators to early warning before flood occurrence. The system was tested and evaluated in terms of timely and preciseness of it to update sensor data to the internet and apply fuzzy logic to intelligently alert flood warning. The results showed that the system was able to update ubiquitous data for a better monitoring system platform. In addition, the system is low cost and easy to handle. In conclusion, the IoT early flood warning system is timely and precise as the data are updated at a very minimum delay and it could easily monitor the changes of climate