A MPC Strategy for the Optimal Management of Microgrids Based on Evolutionary Optimization

In this paper, a novel model predictive control strategy, with a 24-h prediction horizon, is proposed to reduce the operational cost of microgrids. To overcome the complexity of the optimization problems arising from the operation of the microgrid at each step, an adaptive evolutionary strategy with a satisfactory trade-off between exploration and exploitation capabilities was added to the model predictive control. The proposed strategy was evaluated using a representative microgrid that includes a wind turbine, a photovoltaic plant, a microturbine, a diesel engine, and an energy storage system. The achieved results demonstrate the validity of the proposed approach, outperforming a global scheduling planner-based on a genetic algorithm by 14.2% in terms of operational cost. In addition, the proposed approach also better manages the use of the energy storage system.Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad DPI2016-75294-C2-2-RUnión Europea (Programa Horizonte 2020) 76409

How Noisy Data Affects Geometric Semantic Genetic Programming

Noise is a consequence of acquiring and pre-processing data from the environment, and shows fluctuations from different sources---e.g., from sensors, signal processing technology or even human error. As a machine learning technique, Genetic Programming (GP) is not immune to this problem, which the field has frequently addressed. Recently, Geometric Semantic Genetic Programming (GSGP), a semantic-aware branch of GP, has shown robustness and high generalization capability. Researchers believe these characteristics may be associated with a lower sensibility to noisy data. However, there is no systematic study on this matter. This paper performs a deep analysis of the GSGP performance over the presence of noise. Using 15 synthetic datasets where noise can be controlled, we added different ratios of noise to the data and compared the results obtained with those of a canonical GP. The results show that, as we increase the percentage of noisy instances, the generalization performance degradation is more pronounced in GSGP than GP. However, in general, GSGP is more robust to noise than GP in the presence of up to 10% of noise, and presents no statistical difference for values higher than that in the test bed.Comment: 8 pages, In proceedings of Genetic and Evolutionary Computation Conference (GECCO 2017), Berlin, German

A survey of cost-sensitive decision tree induction algorithms

The past decade has seen a significant interest on the problem of inducing decision trees that take account of costs of misclassification and costs of acquiring the features used for decision making. This survey identifies over 50 algorithms including approaches that are direct adaptations of accuracy based methods, use genetic algorithms, use anytime methods and utilize boosting and bagging. The survey brings together these different studies and novel approaches to cost-sensitive decision tree learning, provides a useful taxonomy, a historical timeline of how the field has developed and should provide a useful reference point for future research in this field

Developing collaborative planning support tools for optimised farming in Western Australia

Land-use (farm) planning is a highly complex and dynamic process. A land-use plan can be optimal at one point in time, but its currency can change quickly due to the dynamic nature of the variables driving the land-use decision-making process. These include external drivers such as weather and produce markets, that also interact with the biophysical interactions and management activities of crop production.The active environment of an annual farm planning process can be envisioned as being cone-like. At the beginning of the sowing year, the number of options open to the manager is huge, although uncertainty is high due to the inability to foresee future weather and market conditions. As the production year reveals itself, the uncertainties around weather and markets become more certain, as does the impact of weather and management activities on future production levels. This restricts the number of alternative management options available to the farm manager. Moreover, every decision made, such as crop type sown in a paddock, will constrains the range of management activities possible in that paddock for the rest of the growing season.This research has developed a prototype Land-use Decision Support System (LUDSS) to aid farm managers in their tactical farm management decision making. The prototype applies an innovative approach that mimics the way in which a farm manager and/or consultant would search for optimal solutions at a whole-farm level. This model captured the range of possible management activities available to the manager and the impact that both external (to the farm) and internal drivers have on crop production and the environment. It also captured the risk and uncertainty found in the decision space.The developed prototype is based on a Multiple Objective Decision-making (MODM) - á Posteriori approach incorporating an Exhaustive Search method. The objective set used for the model is: maximising profit and minimising environmental impact. Pareto optimisation theory was chosen as the method to select the optimal solution and a Monte Carlo simulator is integrated into the prototype to incorporate the dynamic nature of the farm decision making process. The prototype has a user-friendly front and back end to allow farmers to input data, drive the application and extract information easily

State-of-the-art in aerodynamic shape optimisation methods

Aerodynamic optimisation has become an indispensable component for any aerodynamic design over the past 60 years, with applications to aircraft, cars, trains, bridges, wind turbines, internal pipe flows, and cavities, among others, and is thus relevant in many facets of technology. With advancements in computational power, automated design optimisation procedures have become more competent, however, there is an ambiguity and bias throughout the literature with regards to relative performance of optimisation architectures and employed algorithms. This paper provides a well-balanced critical review of the dominant optimisation approaches that have been integrated with aerodynamic theory for the purpose of shape optimisation. A total of 229 papers, published in more than 120 journals and conference proceedings, have been classified into 6 different optimisation algorithm approaches. The material cited includes some of the most well-established authors and publications in the field of aerodynamic optimisation. This paper aims to eliminate bias toward certain algorithms by analysing the limitations, drawbacks, and the benefits of the most utilised optimisation approaches. This review provides comprehensive but straightforward insight for non-specialists and reference detailing the current state for specialist practitioners

Large-scale optimization : combining co-operative coevolution and fitness inheritance

Large-scale optimization, here referring mainly to problems with many design parameters remains a serious challenge for optimization algorithms. When the problem at hand does not succumb to analytical treatment (an overwhelmingly common place situation), the engineering and adaptation of stochastic black box optimization methods tends to be a favoured approach, particularly the use of Evolutionary Algorithms (EAs). In this context, many approaches are currently under investigation for accelerating performance on large-scale problems, and we focus on two of those in this research. The first is co-operative co-evolution (CC), where the strategy is to successively optimize only subsets of the design parameters at a time, keeping the remainder fixed, with an organized approach to managing and reconciling these subspace optimization. The second is fitness inheritance (FI), which is essentially a very simple surrogate model strategy, in which, with some probability, the fitness of a solution is simply guessed to be a simple function of the finesses of that solution’s parents. Both CC and FI have been found successful on nontrivial and multiple test cases, and they use fundamentally distinct strategies. In this thesis, we explored the extent to which both of these strategies can be used to provide additional benefits. In addition to combining CC and FI, this thesis also introduces a new FI scheme which further improves the performance of CC-FI. We show that the new algorithm CC-FI is highly effective for solving problems, especially when the new FI scheme is used. In the thesis, we also explored two basic adaptive parameter setting strategies for the FI component. We found that engineering FI (and CC, where it was otherwise not present) into these algorithms led to good performance and results

A Network Model of Financial Markets

This thesis introduces a network representation of equity markets.The model is based on the premise that assets share dependencies on abstract ‘factors’ resulting in exploitable patterns among asset price levels.The network model is a collection of long-run market trends estimated by a 3 layer machine learning framework.The network model’s comprehensive validity is established with 2 simulations in the fields of algorithmic trading, and systemic risk.The algorithmic trading validation applies expectations derived from the network model to estimating expected future returns. It further utilizes the network’s expectations to actively manage a theoretically market neutral portfolio.The validation demonstrates that the network model’s portfolio generates excess returns relative to 2 benchmarks. Over the time period of April, 2007 to January, 2014 the network model’s portfolio for assets drawn from the S&P/ASX 100 produced a Sharpe ratio of 0.674.This approximately doubles the nearest benchmark. The systemic risk validation utilized the network model to simulate shocks to select market sectors and evaluate the resulting financial contagion.The validation successfully differentiated sectors by systemic connectivity levels and suggested some interesting market features. Most notable was the identification of the ‘Financials’ sector as most systemically influential and ‘Basic Materials’ as the most systemically dependent. Additionally, there was evidence that ‘Financials’ may function as a hub of systemic risk which exacerbates losses from multiple market sectors

Simulating Sequential Search Models with Genetic Algorithms: Analysis of Price Ceilings, Taxes, Advertising and Welfare

This paper studies advertising, price ceilings and taxes in a sequential search model with bilateral heterogeneities in production and search costs. We estimate equilibria using a genetic algorithm (GA) applied to over 100 market scenarios, each differing based on the number of firms, number of consumers, existence of price ceilings or taxes, costs of production, costs of advertising, consumers' susceptibility to advertising and consumers' search costs. We compare our equilibrium results to those of the standard theoretical consumer search literature and analyze the welfare effects of advertising, price ceilings and sales taxes. We find that price ceilings and uninformative advertising can improve welfare, especially if search costs are sufficiently high.Sequential Search Models, Genetic Algorithms, Price Ceilings, Taxes, Advertising, Welfare

Multi-Objective Optimization Techniques to Solve the Economic Emission Load Dispatch Problem Using Various Heuristic and Metaheuristic Algorithms

The main objective of thermoelectric power plants is to meet the power demand with the lowest fuel cost and emission levels of pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions, considering the operational restrictions of the power plant. Optimization techniques have been widely used to solve engineering problems as in this case with the objective of minimizing the cost and the pollution damages. Heuristic and metaheuristic algorithms have been extensively studied and used to successfully solve this multi-objective problem. This chapter, several optimization techniques (simulated annealing, ant lion, dragonfly, NSGA II, and differential evolution) are analyzed and their application to economic-emission load dispatch (EELD) is also discussed. In addition, a comparison of all approaches and its results are offered through a case study