On intrinsic uncertainties in earth system modelling

Various types of uncertainty plague climate change simulation, which is, in turn, a crucialelement of Earth System modelling. This fact was recognized for example in the Third Assessment Report (TAR) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, Houghton et al. (2001)), where the authors indicate that for the period between 1990 and 2100 an increase of the global mean temperature around 1.4-5.8°C is to be expected (Houghton et al. 2001). The width of this span as well as the fact that the authors did not give a number concerning the most probable value or a probability distribution shows clearly the large uncertainty. This uncertainty does not only arise due to the different scenarios of future development concerning greenhouse gas emissions for example, but follows to large degree from the wide range of results from different models as well. The chain of these uncertainties of imponderables in the analysis of the Earth System (Schellnhuber and Wenzel 1998), which includes the climate system as well as the anthroposphere, reaches from uncertainties about the existence of critical thresholds, to ignorance of the exact state of today's climate, and ultimately to a lack of knowledge concerning climate-relevant processes, some of which are visible as uncertainties in climate models. Many attempts have been made to reduce these uncertainties by gaining a conceptual understanding of processes, e.g. of El Ni~no / Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (Jin 1997, e.g.) or of the Atlantic overturning (Stommel 1961; Rahmstorf 1996, e.g.), by developing methods to identify critical thresholds in the climate system (Alley et al. 2003; Rial et al. 2004, e.g.), or by implementing an increasing number of processes in a model, resulting in high resolution general circulation models (GCMs), e.g. ECHAM5/MPI-OM (Jungclaus et al. 2006) or HadCM3 (Gordon et al. 2000) and many more. Nevertheless, the much larger part of uncertainties is inevitable in the process of modelling as well as in our understanding of the Earth System. In this thesis we will structure this conglomeration of uncertainties climate research is confronted with. We will address several types of uncertainty and apply methods of dynamical systems theory on a trendsetting field of climate research, i.e. the Indian monsoon ...thesi

CIRA annual report FY 2015/2016

Reporting period April 1, 2015-March 31, 2016

Remote Sensing of Precipitation: Part II

Precipitation is a well-recognized pillar in the global water and energy balances. The accurate and timely understanding of its characteristics at the global, regional and local scales is indispensable for a clearer insight on the mechanisms underlying the Earth’s atmosphere-ocean complex system. Precipitation is one of the elements that is documented to be greatly affected by climate change. In its various forms, precipitation comprises the primary source of freshwater, which is vital for the sustainability of almost all human activities. Its socio-economic significance is fundamental in managing this natural resource effectively, in applications ranging from irrigation to industrial and household usage. Remote sensing of precipitation is pursued through a broad spectrum of continuously enriched and upgraded instrumentation, embracing sensors which can be ground-based (e.g., weather radars), satellite-borne (e.g., passive or active space-borne sensors), underwater (e.g., hydrophones), aerial, or ship-borne. This volume hosts original research contributions on several aspects of remote sensing of precipitation, including applications which embrace the use of remote sensing in tackling issues such as precipitation estimation, seasonal characteristics of precipitation and frequency analysis, assessment of satellite precipitation products, storm prediction, rain microphysics and microstructure, and the comparison of satellite and numerical weather prediction precipitation products

Prévision hydrologique à court terme par réseaux de neurones artificiels pour différentes combinaisons, spatialisations et sources des intrants.

Le potentiel de l’utilisation des réseaux de neurones artificiels en prévision hydrologique à court terme (un à sept jours à l’avance) a été démontré dans plusieurs études. Toutefois, les exemples d’utilisation en opérationnel restent limités et la compréhension de l’intérêt de plusieurs variables d’intrants au modèle pas encore entièrement déterminée. Le rôle de la spatialisation des intrants dans ce type de modèle n’est pas connu. Cette thèse examine le rôle de différents intrants, de leur discrétisation spatiale à un modèle de prévision hydrologique à court terme. Elle vise également à confronter différentes sources de données utilisées comme intrants au modèle. Le modèle de réseaux de neurones développé est un modèle à rétropropagation avec une couche cachée à six neurones. Quatre bassins versants situés en Nouvelle Angleterre (Androscoggin et Susquehanna) ou dans le sud du Québec (Au saumon et Magog) servent de cas d’étude pour faire la prévision durant l’été, défini du 1er mai au 31 octobre. Le modèle de prévision hydrologique vise à prévoir le débit au pas de temps journalier. Au minimum une variable météorologique et une variable d’état sont utilisées comme intrants au modèle ; la variable d’état est aussi mise à jour à chaque pas de temps en étant une sortie du modèle. Deux environnements de travail sont exploités. L’environnement virtuel sert à identifier les variables d’intrants et la spatialisation les plus pertinentes pour la prévision hydrologique à court terme sur les bassins à l’étude. Le modèle hydrologique à base physique HYDROTEL est utilisé pour générer des séries de pseudo-observations hydrométéorologiques sur chaque site d’étude. Les expériences menées dans cet environnement virtuel révèlent que la meilleure configuration d’intrants utilise la température, la précipitation, l’humidité du sol en surface et le débit. De plus, elles révèlent que les modèles global et spatialisé ont des résultats équivalents. Basé sur les résultats obtenus en environnement virtuel, l’environnement réel utilise des données d’observations pour le débit et l’humidité et des données de réanalyses de température et de précipitation pour la météo. Les résultats montrent un réel potentiel dans l’utilisation d’un réseau de mesure in situ de l’humidité au sol pour faire de la prévision hydrologique. En revanche, la qualité des prévisions est très réduite pour les faibles débits

State of the Climate in 2010

Several large-scale climate patterns influenced climate conditions and weather patterns across the globe during 2010. The transition from a warm El Niño phase at the beginning of the year to a cool La Niña phase by July contributed to many notable events, ranging from record wetness across much of Australia to historically low Eastern Pacific basin and near-record high North Atlantic basin hurricane activity. The remaining five main hurricane basins experienced below- to well-below-normal tropical cyclone activity. The negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation was a major driver of Northern Hemisphere temperature patterns during 2009/10 winter and again in late 2010. It contributed to record snowfall and unusually low temperatures over much of northern Eurasia and parts of the United States, while bringing above-normal temperatures to the high northern latitudes. The February Arctic Oscillation Index value was the most negative since records began in 1950. The 2010 average global land and ocean surface temperature was among the two warmest years on record. The Arctic continued to warm at about twice the rate of lower latitudes. The eastern and tropical Pacific Ocean cooled about 1°C from 2009 to 2010, reflecting the transition from the 2009/10 El Niño to the 2010/11 La Niña. Ocean heat fluxes contributed to warm sea surface temperature anomalies in the North Atlantic and the tropical Indian and western Pacific Oceans. Global integrals of upper ocean heat content for the past several years have reached values consistently higher than for all prior times in the record, demonstrating the dominant role of the ocean in the Earth’s energy budget. Deep and abyssal waters of Antarctic origin have also trended warmer on average since the early 1990s. Lower tropospheric temperatures typically lag ENSO surface fluctuations by two to four months, thus the 2010 temperature was dominated by the warm phase El Niño conditions that occurred during the latter half of 2009 and early 2010 and was second warmest on record. The stratosphere continued to be anomalously cool. Annual global precipitation over land areas was about five percent above normal. Precipitation over the ocean was drier than normal after a wet year in 2009. Overall, saltier (higher evaporation) regions of the ocean surface continue to be anomalously salty, and fresher (higher precipitation) regions continue to be anomalously fresh. This salinity pattern, which has held since at least 2004, suggests an increase in the hydrological cycle. Sea ice conditions in the Arctic were significantly different than those in the Antarctic during the year. The annual minimum ice extent in the Arctic—reached in September—was the third lowest on record since 1979. In the Antarctic, zonally averaged sea ice extent reached an all-time record maximum from mid-June through late August and again from mid-November through early December. Corresponding record positive Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode Indices influenced the Antarctic sea ice extents. Greenland glaciers lost more mass than any other year in the decade-long record. The Greenland Ice Sheet lost a record amount of mass, as the melt rate was the highest since at least 1958, and the area and duration of the melting was greater than any year since at least 1978. High summer air temperatures and a longer melt season also caused a continued increase in the rate of ice mass loss from small glaciers and ice caps in the Canadian Arctic. Coastal sites in Alaska show continuous permafrost warming and sites in Alaska, Canada, and Russia indicate more significant warming in relatively cold permafrost than in warm permafrost in the same geographical area. With regional differences, permafrost temperatures are now up to 2°C warmer than they were 20 to 30 years ago. Preliminary data indicate there is a high probability that 2010 will be the 20th consecutive year that alpine glaciers have lost mass. Atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations continued to rise and ozone depleting substances continued to decrease. Carbon dioxide increased by 2.60 ppm in 2010, a rate above both the 2009 and the 1980–2010 average rates. The global ocean carbon dioxide uptake for the 2009 transition period from La Niña to El Niño conditions, the most recent period for which analyzed data are available, is estimated to be similar to the long-term average. The 2010 Antarctic ozone hole was among the lowest 20% compared with other years since 1990, a result of warmer-than-average temperatures in the Antarctic stratosphere during austral winter between mid-July and early September. List of authors and affiliations... .3 Abstract 16 1. Introduction 17 2. Global Climate 27 a. Overview .. 27 b. Temperature 36; 1. Surface temperature .. 36; 2. Lower tropospheric temperatures 37; 3. Lower stratospheric temperatures .. 38; 4. Lake temperature 39 c. Hydrologic cycle .. 40; I. Surface humidity .. 40; 2. Total column water vapor .41; 3. Precipitation . 42; 4. Northern Hemisphere continental snow cover extent ... 44; 5. Global cloudiness 45; 6. River discharge . 46; 7. Permafrost thermal state . 48; 8. Groundwater and terrestrial water storage .. 49; 9. Soil moisture ..52; 10. Lake levels 53 d. Atmospheric circulation 55; 1. Mean sea level pressure . 55; 2. Ocean surface wind speed 56 e. Earth radiation budget at top-of-atmosphere ... 58 f. Atmosphere composition ...59; 1. Atmosphere chemical composition ...59; 2. Aerosols 65; 3. Stratospheric ozone 67 g. Land surface properties . 68; 1. Alpine glaciers and ice sheets .. 68; 2. Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FAPAR) ... 72; 3. Biomass burning ... 72; 4. Forest biomass and biomass change .74 3. Global Oceans 77 a. Overview .. 77 b. Sea surface temperatures .. 78 c. Ocean heat content .81 d. Global ocean heat fluxes ... 84 e. Sea surface salinity .. 86 f. Subsurface salinity ... 88 g. Surface currents ... 92; 1. Pacific Ocean 93; 2. Indian Ocean 94; 3. Atlantic Ocean . 95 h. Meridional overturning circulation observations in the subtropical North Atlantic . 95 i. Sea level variations ... 98 j. The global ocean carbon cycle 100; 1. Air-sea carbon dioxide fluxes 100; 2. Subsurface carbon inventory . 102; 3. Global ocean phytoplankton . 105 4. Tropics ... 109 a. Overview 109 b. ENSO and the tropical Pacific 109; 1. Oceanic conditions ... 109; 2. Atmospheric circulation: Tropics .110; 3. Atmospheric circulation: Extratropics ...112; 4. ENSO temperature and precipitation impacts .113 c. Tropical intraseasonal activity .113 d. Tropical cyclones 114; 1. Overview .114; 2. Atlantic basin ...115; 3. Eastern North Pacific basin .121; 4. Western North Pacific basin .. 123; 5. Indian Ocean basins .. 127; 6. Southwest Pacific basin 129; 7. Australian region basin 130 e. Tropical cyclone heat potential .. 132 f. Intertropical Convergence Zones . 134; 1. Pacific ... 134; 2. Atlantic 136 g. Atlantic multidecadal oscillation 137 h. Indian Ocean Dipole . 138 5. The arctic ... 143 a. Overview 143 b. Atmosphere 143 c. Ocean .. 145; 1. Wind-driven circulation . 145; 2. Ocean temperature and salinity 145; 3. Biology and geochemistry .. 146; 4. Sea level .. 148 d. Sea ice cover ... 148; 1. Sea ice extent . 148; 2. Sea ice age ... 149; 3. Sea ice thickness 150 e. Land .. 150; 1. Vegetation ... 150; 2. Permafrost ... 152; 3. River discharge ... 153; 4. Terrestrial snow 154; 5. Glaciers outside Greenland 155 f. Greenland ... 156; 1. Coastal surface air temperature . 156; 2. Upper air temperatures . 158; 3. Atmospheric circulation . 158; 4. Surface melt extent and duration and albedo . 159; 5. Surface mass balance along the K-Transect .. 159; 6. Total Greenland mass loss from GRACE . 160; 7. Marine-terminating glacier area changes .. 160 6. ANTARCTICA ..161 a. Overview .161 b. Circulation ...161 c. Surface manned and automatic weather station observations 163 d. Net precipitation ... 164 e. 2009/10 Seasonal melt extent and duration . 167 f. Sea ice extent and concentration .. 167 g. Ozone depletion 170 7. Regional climates ... 173 a. Overview 173 b. North America ... 173; 1. Canada 173; 2. United States .. 175; 3. México . 179 c. Central America and the Caribbean .. 182; 1. Central America 182; 2. The Caribbean ... 183 d. South America .. 186; 1. Northern South America and the Tropical Andes . 186; 2. Tropical South America east of the Andes .. 187; 3. Southern South America 190 e. Africa 192; 1. Northern Africa 192; 2. Western Africa .. 193; 3. Eastern Africa . 194; 4. Southern Africa .. 196; 5. Western Indian Ocean countries 198 f. Europe . 199; 1. Overview 199; 2. Central and Western Europe 202; 3. The Nordic and Baltic countries . 203; 4. Iberia 205; 5. Mediterranean, Italian, and Balkan Peninsulas .206; 6. Eastern Europe .. 207; 7. Middle East ..208 g. Asia ... 210; 1. Russia ... 210; 2. East Asia ..215; 3. South Asia 217; 4. Southwest Asia ...219 h. Oceania ...222; 1. Southwest Pacific ..222; 2. Northwest Pacific, Micronesia .. 224; 3. Australia .. 227; 4. New Zealand .. 229 8. SEASONAL SUMMARIES ... 233 Acknowledgments 237 Appendix: Acronyms and Abbreviations 238 References . 24

African Handbook of Climate Change Adaptation

This open access book discusses current thinking and presents the main issues and challenges associated with climate change in Africa. It introduces evidences from studies and projects which show how climate change adaptation is being - and may continue to be successfully implemented in African countries. Thanks to its scope and wide range of themes surrounding climate change, the ambition is that this book will be a lead publication on the topic, which may be regularly updated and hence capture further works. Climate change is a major global challenge. However, some geographical regions are more severly affected than others. One of these regions is the African continent. Due to a combination of unfavourable socio-economic and meteorological conditions, African countries are particularly vulnerable to climate change and its impacts. The recently released IPCC special report "Global Warming of 1.5º C" outlines the fact that keeping global warming by the level of 1.5º C is possible, but also suggested that an increase by 2º C could lead to crises with crops (agriculture fed by rain could drop by 50% in some African countries by 2020) and livestock production, could damage water supplies and pose an additonal threat to coastal areas. The 5th Assessment Report produced by IPCC predicts that wheat may disappear from Africa by 2080, and that maize— a staple—will fall significantly in southern Africa. Also, arid and semi-arid lands are likely to increase by up to 8%, with severe ramifications for livelihoods, poverty eradication and meeting the SDGs. Pursuing appropriate adaptation strategies is thus vital, in order to address the current and future challenges posed by a changing climate. It is against this background that the "African Handbook of Climate Change Adaptation" is being published. It contains papers prepared by scholars, representatives from social movements, practitioners and members of governmental agencies, undertaking research and/or executing climate change projects in Africa, and working with communities across the African continent. Encompassing over 100 contribtions from across Africa, it is the most comprehensive publication on climate change adaptation in Africa ever produced

Plants and Plant Products in Local Markets Within Benin City and Environs

AbstractThe vulnerability of agriculture systems in Africa to climate change is directly and indirectly affecting the availability and diversity of plants and plant products available in local markets. In this chapter, markets in Benin City and environs were assessed to document the availability of plants and plant products. Markets were grouped into urban, suburban, and rural with each group having four markets. Majority of the plant and plant product vendors were women and 88 plant species belonging to 42 families were found. Their scientific and common names were documented as well as the parts of the plant and associated products available in the markets. Most of the plant and plant products found in local markets belong to major plant families. Urban markets had the highest diversity of plants and plant products. Three categories of plants and plant products were documented. Around 67% of the plants and plant products were categorized as whole plant/plant parts, 28% as processed plant parts, while 5% as reprocessed plant/plant parts. It was revealed that 86% of these plants are used as foods, 11% are for medicinal purposes, while 3% is used for other purposes. About 35% of plants and plant products across the markets were fruits, which is an indication that city and environs are a rich source of fruits. The local knowledge and practices associated with the plants and plant products can contribute towards formulating a strategic response for climate change impacts on agriculture, gender, poverty, food security, and plant diversity

Triple Helix as a Strategic Tool to Fast-Track Climate Change Adaptation in Rural Kenya: Case Study of Marsabit County

AbstractThe lack of affordable, clean, and reliable energy in Africa's rural areas forces people to resort to poor quality energy source, which is detrimental to the people's health and prevents the economic development of communities. Moreover, access to safe water and food security are concerns closely linked to health issues and children malnourishment. Recent climate change due to global warming has worsened the already critical situation.Electricity is well known to be an enabler of development as it allows the use of modern devices thus enabling the development of not only income-generating activities but also water pumping and food processing and conservation that can promote socioeconomic growth. However, all of this is difficult to achieve due to the lack of investors, local skills, awareness by the community, and often also government regulations.All the above mentioned barriers to the uptake of electricity in rural Kenya could be solved by the coordinated effort of government, private sector, and academia, also referred to as Triple Helix, in which each entity may partially take the other's role. This chapter discretizes the above and shows how a specific county (Marsabit) has benefited from this triple intervention. Existing government policies and actions and programs led by nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) and international agencies are reviewed, highlighting the current interconnection and gaps in promoting integrated actions toward climate change adaptation and energy access