Optimal household energy management and participation in ancillary services with PV production

The work presented in this paper deals with a project aiming to increase the value of photovoltaic (PV) solar production for residential application. To contribute to the development of the new functionalities for such system and the efficient control system to optimize its operation, this paper defines the possibility for the proposed system to participate to the ancillary services, particularly in active power service provider. This service of PV-based system for housing application, as it does not exist today, has led to a market design proposition in the distribution system. The mathematical model for calculating the optimal operation of system (sources, load, and the exchange power with the grid) results in a linear mix integer optimization problem where the objective is to maximize the profit obtained by participating to electricity market. The approach is illustrated in an example study case. The PV producer could benefit from its intervention on balancing market or ancillary services market despite of the impact on the profit of several kinds of uncertainty, as the intermittence of PV source.energy management ; ancillary services ; PV production ; household application

Robust 24 Hours ahead Forecast in a Microgrid: A Real Case Study

Forecasting the power production from renewable energy sources (RESs) has become fundamental in microgrid applications to optimize scheduling and dispatching of the available assets. In this article, a methodology to provide the 24 h ahead Photovoltaic (PV) power forecast based on a Physical Hybrid Artificial Neural Network (PHANN) for microgrids is presented. The goal of this paper is to provide a robust methodology to forecast 24 h in advance the PV power production in a microgrid, addressing the specific criticalities of this environment. The proposed approach has to validate measured data properly, through an effective algorithm and further refine the power forecast when newer data are available. The procedure is fully implemented in a facility of the Multi-Good Microgrid Laboratory (MG(Lab)(2)) of the Politecnico di Milano, Milan, Italy, where new Energy Management Systems (EMSs) are studied. Reported results validate the proposed approach as a robust and accurate procedure for microgrid applications

Corrective receding horizon EV charge scheduling using short-term solar forecasting

Forecast errors can cause sub-optimal solutions in resource planning optimization, yet they are usually modeled simplistically by statistical models, causing unrealistic impacts on the optimal solutions. In this paper, realistic forecast errors are prescribed, and a corrective approach is proposed to mitigate the negative effects of day-ahead persistence forecast error by short-term forecasts from a state-of-the-art sky imager system. These forecasts preserve the spatiotemporal dependence structure of forecast errors avoiding statistical approximations. The performance of the proposed algorithm is tested on a receding horizon quadratic program developed for valley filling the midday net load depression through electric vehicle charging. Throughout one month of simulations the ability to flatten net load is assessed under practical forecast accuracy levels achievable from persistence, sky imager and perfect forecasts. Compared to using day-ahead persistence solar forecasts, the proposed corrective approach using sky imager forecasts delivers a 25% reduction in the standard deviation of the daily net load. It is demonstrated that correcting day-ahead forecasts in real time with more accurate short-term forecasts benefits the valley filling solution

An Integrated Multi-Time-Scale Modeling for Solar Irradiance Forecasting Using Deep Learning

For short-term solar irradiance forecasting, the traditional point forecasting methods are rendered less useful due to the non-stationary characteristic of solar power. The amount of operating reserves required to maintain reliable operation of the electric grid rises due to the variability of solar energy. The higher the uncertainty in the generation, the greater the operating-reserve requirements, which translates to an increased cost of operation. In this research work, we propose a unified architecture for multi-time-scale predictions for intra-day solar irradiance forecasting using recurrent neural networks (RNN) and long-short-term memory networks (LSTMs). This paper also lays out a framework for extending this modeling approach to intra-hour forecasting horizons thus, making it a multi-time-horizon forecasting approach, capable of predicting intra-hour as well as intra-day solar irradiance. We develop an end-to-end pipeline to effectuate the proposed architecture. The performance of the prediction model is tested and validated by the methodical implementation. The robustness of the approach is demonstrated with case studies conducted for geographically scattered sites across the United States. The predictions demonstrate that our proposed unified architecture-based approach is effective for multi-time-scale solar forecasts and achieves a lower root-mean-square prediction error when benchmarked against the best-performing methods documented in the literature that use separate models for each time-scale during the day. Our proposed method results in a 71.5% reduction in the mean RMSE averaged across all the test sites compared to the ML-based best-performing method reported in the literature. Additionally, the proposed method enables multi-time-horizon forecasts with real-time inputs, which have a significant potential for practical industry applications in the evolving grid.Comment: 19 pages, 12 figures, 3 tables, under review for journal submissio

Capturing Distribution Grid-Integrated Solar Variability and Uncertainty Using Microgrids

The variable nature of the solar generation and the inherent uncertainty in solar generation forecasts are two challenging issues for utility grids, especially as the distribution grid integrated solar generation proliferates. This paper offers to utilize microgrids as local solutions for mitigating these negative drawbacks and helping the utility grid in hosting a higher penetration of solar generation. A microgrid optimal scheduling model based on robust optimization is developed to capture solar generation variability and uncertainty. Numerical simulations on a test feeder indicate the effectiveness of the proposed model.Comment: IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting, 201

A MPC Strategy for the Optimal Management of Microgrids Based on Evolutionary Optimization

In this paper, a novel model predictive control strategy, with a 24-h prediction horizon, is proposed to reduce the operational cost of microgrids. To overcome the complexity of the optimization problems arising from the operation of the microgrid at each step, an adaptive evolutionary strategy with a satisfactory trade-off between exploration and exploitation capabilities was added to the model predictive control. The proposed strategy was evaluated using a representative microgrid that includes a wind turbine, a photovoltaic plant, a microturbine, a diesel engine, and an energy storage system. The achieved results demonstrate the validity of the proposed approach, outperforming a global scheduling planner-based on a genetic algorithm by 14.2% in terms of operational cost. In addition, the proposed approach also better manages the use of the energy storage system.Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad DPI2016-75294-C2-2-RUnión Europea (Programa Horizonte 2020) 76409

Regression Monte Carlo for Microgrid Management

We study an islanded microgrid system designed to supply a small village with the power produced by photovoltaic panels, wind turbines and a diesel generator. A battery storage system device is used to shift power from times of high renewable production to times of high demand. We introduce a methodology to solve microgrid management problem using different variants of Regression Monte Carlo algorithms and use numerical simulations to infer results about the optimal design of the grid.Comment: CEMRACS 2017 Summer project - proceedings