Understanding consumer demand for new transport technologies and services, and implications for the future of mobility

The transport sector is witnessing unprecedented levels of disruption. Privately owned cars that operate on internal combustion engines have been the dominant modes of passenger transport for much of the last century. However, recent advances in transport technologies and services, such as the development of autonomous vehicles, the emergence of shared mobility services, and the commercialization of alternative fuel vehicle technologies, promise to revolutionise how humans travel. The implications are profound: some have predicted the end of private car dependent Western societies, others have portended greater suburbanization than has ever been observed before. If transport systems are to fulfil current and future needs of different subpopulations, and satisfy short and long-term societal objectives, it is imperative that we comprehend the many factors that shape individual behaviour. This chapter introduces the technologies and services most likely to disrupt prevailing practices in the transport sector. We review past studies that have examined current and future demand for these new technologies and services, and their likely short and long-term impacts on extant mobility patterns. We conclude with a summary of what these new technologies and services might mean for the future of mobility.Comment: 15 pages, 0 figures, book chapte

Carbon Free Boston: Transportation Technical Report

Part of a series of reports that includes: Carbon Free Boston: Summary Report; Carbon Free Boston: Social Equity Report; Carbon Free Boston: Technical Summary; Carbon Free Boston: Buildings Technical Report; Carbon Free Boston: Waste Technical Report; Carbon Free Boston: Energy Technical Report; Carbon Free Boston: Offsets Technical ReportOVERVIEW: Transportation connects Boston’s workers, residents and tourists to their livelihoods, health care, education, recreation, culture, and other aspects of life quality. In cities, transit access is a critical factor determining upward mobility. Yet many urban transportation systems, including Boston’s, underserve some populations along one or more of those dimensions. Boston has the opportunity and means to expand mobility access to all residents, and at the same time reduce GHG emissions from transportation. This requires the transformation of the automobile-centric system that is fueled predominantly by gasoline and diesel fuel. The near elimination of fossil fuels—combined with more transit, walking, and biking—will curtail air pollution and crashes, and dramatically reduce the public health impact of transportation. The City embarks on this transition from a position of strength. Boston is consistently ranked as one of the most walkable and bikeable cities in the nation, and one in three commuters already take public transportation. There are three general strategies to reaching a carbon-neutral transportation system: • Shift trips out of automobiles to transit, biking, and walking;1 • Reduce automobile trips via land use planning that encourages denser development and affordable housing in transit-rich neighborhoods; • Shift most automobiles, trucks, buses, and trains to zero-GHG electricity. Even with Boston’s strong transit foundation, a carbon-neutral transportation system requires a wholesale change in Boston’s transportation culture. Success depends on the intelligent adoption of new technologies, influencing behavior with strong, equitable, and clearly articulated planning and investment, and effective collaboration with state and regional partners.Published versio

A Review on Energy, Environmental, and Sustainability Implications of Connected and Automated Vehicles

Connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) are poised to reshape transportation and mobility by replacing humans as the driver and service provider. While the primary stated motivation for vehicle automation is to improve safety and convenience of road mobility, this transformation also provides a valuable opportunity to improve vehicle energy efficiency and reduce emissions in the transportation sector. Progress in vehicle efficiency and functionality, however, does not necessarily translate to net positive environmental outcomes. Here, we examine the interactions between CAV technology and the environment at four levels of increasing complexity: vehicle, transportation system, urban system, and society. We find that environmental impacts come from CAV-facilitated transformations at all four levels, rather than from CAV technology directly. We anticipate net positive environmental impacts at the vehicle, transportation system, and urban system levels, but expect greater vehicle utilization and shifts in travel patterns at the society level to offset some of these benefits. Focusing on the vehicle-level improvements associated with CAV technology is likely to yield excessively optimistic estimates of environmental benefits. Future research and policy efforts should strive to clarify the extent and possible synergetic effects from a systems level to envisage and address concerns regarding the short- and long-term sustainable adoption of CAV technology.Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/149443/1/EEICAV_Taiebat et al (2018)_Environmental Science & Technology.pdfDescription of EEICAV_Taiebat et al (2018)_Environmental Science & Technology.pdf : Main articl

Connected Autonomous Electric Vehicles as Enablers for Low-Carbon Future

Transportation is the main cause of various harmful gases being released into the atmosphere. Due to dependency on fossil fuels, conventional internal-combustion engine vehicles cause major impacts on air pollution and climate change. Achieving greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction targets requires electrification of transportation at the larger scale. Zero-emission vehicles are developing rapidly with consequences for energy use and GHG emissions, and their penetration is rising throughout the world. Such vehicles are widely considered as a promising solution for GHG reduction and a key to low-carbon mobility future. Recent trend in transportation system is a rapid shift toward connected autonomous vehicles. Connected autonomous electric vehicle (CAEV) will play a vital role in emerging revolution in sustainable low-carbon mobility. They can result in major reductions in GHG emissions and be at the forefront of rapid transformation in transportation. CAEVs have great potential to operate with higher vehicle efficiency, if they are charged using renewable energy sources that will significantly reduce emissions and dependency on fossil fuels. This book chapter is intended not only to provide understanding of potential environmental implications of CAEV technologies by reviewing the existing studies and research works but also to discuss environmental impacts including GHG emissions and improvement of vehicle efficiency

Local Climate Action Planning as a Tool to Harness the Greenhouse Gas Emissions Mitigation and Equity Potential of Autonomous Vehicles and On-Demand Mobility

This report focuses on how cities can use climate action plans (CAPs) to ensure that on-demand mobility and autonomous vehicles (AVs) help reduce, rather than increase, green-house gas (GHG) emissions and inequitable impacts from the transportation system. We employed a three-pronged research strategy involving: (1) an analysis of the current literature on on-demand mobility and AVs; (2) a systematic content analysis of 23 CAPs and general plans developed by municipalities in California; and (3) a comparison of findings from the literature and content analysis of plans to identify opportunities for GHG emissions reduction and mobility equity. Findings indicate that maximizing the environmental and social benefits of AVs and on-demand mobility requires proactive and progressive planning; yet, most cities are lagging behind in this area. Although municipal CAPs and general plans in California have adopted a few strategies and programs relevant to AVs and on-demand mobility, many untapped opportunities exist to harness the GHG emissions reduction and social benefits potential of AVs and on-demand mobility. Policy and planning discussions should consider the synergies between AVs and on-demand mobility as two emerging mobility trends, as well as the key factors (e.g., vehicle electrification, fuel efficiency, use and ownership, access and distribution, etc.) that determine whether deployment of AVs would help reduce GHG emissions from transportation. Additionally, AVs and on-demand mobility can potentially contribute to a more equitable transportation system by improving independence and quality of life for individuals with disabilities and the elderly, enhancing access to transit, and helping alleviate the geographic gap in public transportation services

Pumping the Brakes on Robot Cars: Current Urban Traveler Willingness to Consider Driverless Vehicles

A growing literature suggests that widespread travel conducted through driverless connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) accessed as a service, in contrast to those personally owned, could have significant impacts on the sustainability of urban transportation. However, it is unclear how the general public currently considers willingness to travel in driverless vehicles, and if they would be more comfortable doing so in one personally owned or one accessed as a service. To address this, we collected travel survey data by intercepting respondents on discretionary or social trips to four popular destinations in a medium-size U.S. city in the spring of 2017. After collecting data on how the respondent reached the survey site and the trip’s origin and destination, survey administrators then asked if respondents would have been willing to make their current trip in either a personally-owned driverless vehicle or through a driverless vehicle service. Over one-third expressed willingness to use both forms, while 31% were unwilling to use either. For those that considered only one, slightly more favored the personally-owned model. Consideration of an existing mobility service was consistently a positive and significant predictor of those that expressed willingness to travel in a driverless vehicle, while traveling downtown negatively and significantly influenced consideration of at least one form of driverless vehicle. These findings highlight the diverse public views about the prospect of integration of CAVs in transportation systems and raise questions about the assumption that travelers to central city locations would be early adopters of automated vehicle mobility services.The research reported here was supported in part by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), SPEED Program Grant No. 83594901the University of Michigan Energy Institute (UMEI) and University of Michigan Dow Sustainability Fellows progra

Connected And Autonomous Vehicles: Implications For Policy And Practice In City And Transportation Planning

Vehicular transportation is undergoing a technological change. Cars are being automated, which have significant implications for governments. Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) and Connected and Autonomous Vehicles (CAVs) can have significant benefits such as improved overall roadside safety and efficiency however, there may also be negative effects as well such as increased sprawl and social inequity. In Ontario, AV testing on public roads has been conducted under O. Reg. 306/15, which has also helped to establish Ontario as a leader of innovation in Canada. Before CAVs can be mass deployed in Ontario and Canada at large however, a number of barriers will need to be addressed such as legislation, infrastructure and cooperation between municipalities, and between municipalities and the automotive industry. Recommendations for municipal and provincial governments are provided

Beyond automobility? Lock-in of past failures in low-carbon urban mobility innovations

Automobility, including the infrastructures, technologies and institutions that created high dependence on private car use, has led to significant environmental and climate problems and notably high carbon emissions. Now cities are attempting to move beyond this failed regime by experimenting with a range of different mobility innovations. In this paper, we examine whether emergent policy-led experiments and innovation processes in low-carbon mobility are learning from the past, or whether they are reproducing key elements of past policy failures. Through four case studies – Birmingham, Stavanger, Milton Keynes and Melbourne – we assess attempts to break out of high-carbon automobility through three key factors, namely diversification of travel options, a shift from individual to shared forms of mobility, and whether these aspects are implemented at scale. We find that while all cities show potential for diversification and sharing at scale, current modes of innovation exhibit features that may reproduce rather than reduce high-carbon automobility. Our analysis attributes this risk of continued failure to how policy-led experimentation and innovation are structured and themselves become locked in, thereby upholding the obdurate automobility regime

Are We There Yet? Combining qualitative and quantitative methods to study the introduction of CAVs in Sweden, and potential travel demand effects.

By law, Sweden must reach net-zero emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) by 2045. Domestic transportation is one sector in which GHG emissions can be reduced substantially. Connected and Autonomous Vehicles (CAVs) could potentially help with this and with the transition to a more efficient transportation system, but they could also instead make meeting the target harder. The issues of how CAV technology will be introduced to the general public and what the effects will be are fraught with uncertainty. Thus far, much policy research has been informed by technical, quantitative studies, such as the one in Paper 1 of this licentiate thesis. The study analyses the impact CAVs may have on travel demand. The methodology is based on an induced travel demand model that simulates the effects on Vehicle Kilometres Travelled (VKT) related to changes in Value of Travel Time (VoTT) and the cost of CAV technology. In our most conservative scenario—with the smallest change in VoTT and highest CAV cost—we estimate an average increase in travel distance by car of 5% once CAVs are a mature technology on the market, while this increase reaches 61% in the least conservative scenario. Our results also show that income matters: Under certain conditions, those who are able to work remotely and have a relatively high income have a greater economic incentive to purchase a CAV and extend their travel distance. In Paper 2, we identify and map the broader societal drivers and pressures for the introduction of CAVs in cities. The approach taken in the paper has a theoretical basis in transition management and stakeholder theories and uses a combination of the Drivers, Pressures, State, Impact, and Response (DPSIR) framework and force field analysis to analyse interview transcripts. Survey data complement this analysis. The results provide in- depth knowledge about how actors in different parts of society perceive the introduction of CAVs and the mechanisms behind the expansion of these vehicles. It is clear from the interviews and survey that CAVs are not seen as unconditionally positive; instead, many stakeholders believe CAVs need to be connected to mobility planning and public transport strategies