The Neural Particle Filter

The robust estimation of dynamically changing features, such as the position of prey, is one of the hallmarks of perception. On an abstract, algorithmic level, nonlinear Bayesian filtering, i.e. the estimation of temporally changing signals based on the history of observations, provides a mathematical framework for dynamic perception in real time. Since the general, nonlinear filtering problem is analytically intractable, particle filters are considered among the most powerful approaches to approximating the solution numerically. Yet, these algorithms prevalently rely on importance weights, and thus it remains an unresolved question how the brain could implement such an inference strategy with a neuronal population. Here, we propose the Neural Particle Filter (NPF), a weight-less particle filter that can be interpreted as the neuronal dynamics of a recurrently connected neural network that receives feed-forward input from sensory neurons and represents the posterior probability distribution in terms of samples. Specifically, this algorithm bridges the gap between the computational task of online state estimation and an implementation that allows networks of neurons in the brain to perform nonlinear Bayesian filtering. The model captures not only the properties of temporal and multisensory integration according to Bayesian statistics, but also allows online learning with a maximum likelihood approach. With an example from multisensory integration, we demonstrate that the numerical performance of the model is adequate to account for both filtering and identification problems. Due to the weightless approach, our algorithm alleviates the 'curse of dimensionality' and thus outperforms conventional, weighted particle filters in higher dimensions for a limited number of particles

Asymptotic learning curves of kernel methods: empirical data v.s. Teacher-Student paradigm

How many training data are needed to learn a supervised task? It is often observed that the generalization error decreases as $n^{-\beta}$ where $n$ is the number of training examples and $\beta$ an exponent that depends on both data and algorithm. In this work we measure $\beta$ when applying kernel methods to real datasets. For MNIST we find $\beta\approx 0.4$ and for CIFAR10 $\beta\approx 0.1$, for both regression and classification tasks, and for Gaussian or Laplace kernels. To rationalize the existence of non-trivial exponents that can be independent of the specific kernel used, we study the Teacher-Student framework for kernels. In this scheme, a Teacher generates data according to a Gaussian random field, and a Student learns them via kernel regression. With a simplifying assumption -- namely that the data are sampled from a regular lattice -- we derive analytically $\beta$ for translation invariant kernels, using previous results from the kriging literature. Provided that the Student is not too sensitive to high frequencies, $\beta$ depends only on the smoothness and dimension of the training data. We confirm numerically that these predictions hold when the training points are sampled at random on a hypersphere. Overall, the test error is found to be controlled by the magnitude of the projection of the true function on the kernel eigenvectors whose rank is larger than $n$. Using this idea we predict relate the exponent $\beta$ to an exponent $a$ describing how the coefficients of the true function in the eigenbasis of the kernel decay with rank. We extract $a$ from real data by performing kernel PCA, leading to $\beta\approx0.36$ for MNIST and $\beta\approx0.07$ for CIFAR10, in good agreement with observations. We argue that these rather large exponents are possible due to the small effective dimension of the data.Comment: We added (i) the prediction of the exponent $\beta$ for real data using kernel PCA; (ii) the generalization of our results to non-Gaussian data from reference [11] (Bordelon et al., "Spectrum Dependent Learning Curves in Kernel Regression and Wide Neural Networks"

A New Perspective and Extension of the Gaussian Filter

The Gaussian Filter (GF) is one of the most widely used filtering algorithms; instances are the Extended Kalman Filter, the Unscented Kalman Filter and the Divided Difference Filter. GFs represent the belief of the current state by a Gaussian with the mean being an affine function of the measurement. We show that this representation can be too restrictive to accurately capture the dependences in systems with nonlinear observation models, and we investigate how the GF can be generalized to alleviate this problem. To this end, we view the GF from a variational-inference perspective. We analyse how restrictions on the form of the belief can be relaxed while maintaining simplicity and efficiency. This analysis provides a basis for generalizations of the GF. We propose one such generalization which coincides with a GF using a virtual measurement, obtained by applying a nonlinear function to the actual measurement. Numerical experiments show that the proposed Feature Gaussian Filter (FGF) can have a substantial performance advantage over the standard GF for systems with nonlinear observation models.Comment: Will appear in Robotics: Science and Systems (R:SS) 201

Multi-scale control variate methods for uncertainty quantification in kinetic equations

Kinetic equations play a major rule in modeling large systems of interacting particles. Uncertainties may be due to various reasons, like lack of knowledge on the microscopic interaction details or incomplete informations at the boundaries. These uncertainties, however, contribute to the curse of dimensionality and the development of efficient numerical methods is a challenge. In this paper we consider the construction of novel multi-scale methods for such problems which, thanks to a control variate approach, are capable to reduce the variance of standard Monte Carlo techniques

Scalable Population Synthesis with Deep Generative Modeling

Population synthesis is concerned with the generation of synthetic yet realistic representations of populations. It is a fundamental problem in the modeling of transport where the synthetic populations of micro-agents represent a key input to most agent-based models. In this paper, a new methodological framework for how to 'grow' pools of micro-agents is presented. The model framework adopts a deep generative modeling approach from machine learning based on a Variational Autoencoder (VAE). Compared to the previous population synthesis approaches, including Iterative Proportional Fitting (IPF), Gibbs sampling and traditional generative models such as Bayesian Networks or Hidden Markov Models, the proposed method allows fitting the full joint distribution for high dimensions. The proposed methodology is compared with a conventional Gibbs sampler and a Bayesian Network by using a large-scale Danish trip diary. It is shown that, while these two methods outperform the VAE in the low-dimensional case, they both suffer from scalability issues when the number of modeled attributes increases. It is also shown that the Gibbs sampler essentially replicates the agents from the original sample when the required conditional distributions are estimated as frequency tables. In contrast, the VAE allows addressing the problem of sampling zeros by generating agents that are virtually different from those in the original data but have similar statistical properties. The presented approach can support agent-based modeling at all levels by enabling richer synthetic populations with smaller zones and more detailed individual characteristics.Comment: 27 pages, 15 figures, 4 table

Data-driven model reduction and transfer operator approximation

In this review paper, we will present different data-driven dimension reduction techniques for dynamical systems that are based on transfer operator theory as well as methods to approximate transfer operators and their eigenvalues, eigenfunctions, and eigenmodes. The goal is to point out similarities and differences between methods developed independently by the dynamical systems, fluid dynamics, and molecular dynamics communities such as time-lagged independent component analysis (TICA), dynamic mode decomposition (DMD), and their respective generalizations. As a result, extensions and best practices developed for one particular method can be carried over to other related methods

Analytical approximation to the multidimensional Fokker--Planck equation with steady state

The Fokker--Planck equation is a key ingredient of many models in physics, and related subjects, and arises in a diverse array of settings. Analytical solutions are limited to special cases, and resorting to numerical simulation is often the only route available; in high dimensions, or for parametric studies, this can become unwieldy. Using asymptotic techniques, that draw upon the known Ornstein--Uhlenbeck (OU) case, we consider a mean-reverting system and obtain its representation as a product of terms, representing short-term, long-term, and medium-term behaviour. A further reduction yields a simple explicit formula, both intuitive in terms of its physical origin and fast to evaluate. We illustrate a breadth of cases, some of which are `far' from the OU model, such as double-well potentials, and even then, perhaps surprisingly, the approximation still gives very good results when compared with numerical simulations. Both one- and two-dimensional examples are considered.Comment: Updated version as publishe