Using casualty assessment and weighted hit rates to calibrate spatial patterns of Boko Haram insurgency for emergency response preparedness

Since the beginning of the current millennium, Boko Haram has terrorised the residents of Northern Nigeria with devastating and high profile campaigns resuming in 2010. First responders struggle to cope with planning for and responding to the aftermath of these attacks. This paper describes analysis that can help emergency services pre-empt the geography and magnitude of susceptibility to attacks and the potential of the terrorists to generate severe attacks. The data used for the study were five years of terrorist activities. Results suggest that the efficiency of Boko Haram is not necessarily random and that attacks are generally well calculated to hit communities with disproportionate concentrations of vulnerable residents. The analysis is the first attempt to examine how a spatial segmentation framework might offer insight and intelligence towards understanding the configuration of terrorism for operational response

The Economics of Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism: A Survey (Part I)

This survey provides an in-depth analysis of existing research on the economic analysis of terrorism and counter-terrorist measures. First the existing evidence on the causes of terrorism is analyzed, then we consider the evidence of the consequences of terrorism and we demonstrate why it is important to regarding of the issue of counter-terrorism policy. Moreover the survey presents the existing knowledge on the interrelation between the economy and the issue of security and it incorporates analysis the level of knowledge about the causal chains between security and the economy. Also it focuses on perspective and methodologies from the discipline of economics but also refers to research from related disciplines (sociology, political science). It also assembles the knowledge on the impact of terrorism on the economy as reflected in macro-economic variables and its impact on specific sectors. Furthermore it assesses how potential an actual terrorist event determine consumer and producer behaviour, public policy, as well as terrorist responses to these policies. Finally a European perspective on the terrorism security annexes is discussed and here we analyze the causes of terrorism in Europe.risk, insecurity, survey, terrorism, counter-terrorism, security economics

The Economics of Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism: A Survey (Part I)

This survey provides an in-depth analysis of existing research on the economic analysis of terrorism and counter-terrorist measures. First the existing evidence on the causes of terrorism is analyzed, then we consider the evidence of the consequences of terrorism and we demonstrate why it is important to regarding of the issue of counter-terrorism policy. Moreover the survey presents the existing knowledge on the interrelation between the economy and the issue of security and it incorporates analysis the level of knowledge about the causal chains between security and the economy. Also it focuses on perspective and methodologies from the discipline of economics but also refers to research from related disciplines (sociology, political science). It also assembles the knowledge on the impact of terrorism on the economy as reflected in macro-economic variables and its impact on specific sectors. Furthermore it assesses how potential an actual terrorist event determine consumer and producer behaviour, public policy, as well as terrorist responses to these policies. Finally a European perspective on the terrorism security annexes is discussed and here we analyze the causes of terrorism in Europe.risk, insecurity, survey, terrorism, counter-terrorism, security economics

The Economics of Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism: A Survey (Part I)

This survey provides an in-depth analysis of existing research on the economic analysis of terrorism and counter-terrorist measures. First the existing evidence on the causes of terrorism is analyzed, then we consider the evidence of the consequences of terrorism and we demonstrate why it is important to regarding of the issue of counter-terrorism policy. Moreover the survey presents the existing knowledge on the interrelation between the economy and the issue of security and it incorporates analysis the level of knowledge about the causal chains between security and the economy. Also it focuses on perspective and methodologies from the discipline of economics but also refers to research from related disciplines (sociology, political science). It also assembles the knowledge on the impact of terrorism on the economy as reflected in macro-economic variables and its impact on specific sectors. Furthermore it assesses how potential an actual terrorist event determine consumer and producer behaviour, public policy, as well as terrorist responses to these policies. Finally a European perspective on the terrorism security annexes is discussed and here we analyze the causes of terrorism in Europe.

MIXED LOGIT ESTIMATION OF RADICAL ISLAMIC TERRORISM IN EUROPE AND NORTH AMERICA: A COMPARATIVE STUDY

This paper estimates what characteristics (e.g. location, number of casualties, and type of attack) are associated with an Islamic terrorist attack. This is established by identifying the significant determinants of the probability that an attack had been carried out by Islamic terrorists. For Europe, the United States, and Canada, the analysis employs ITERATE data from October 1979 to December 2002 to ascertain the significant characteristics of Islamic terrorist attacks. A random- parameter logit model is used to analyze the probability of such attacks, taking into account the heterogeneity of the sample data. This model outperforms the standard logit model. Some policy implications are presented.Islamic radical terrorism, mixed logit model, and public policy

The Global Risks Report 2016, 11th Edition

Now in its 11th edition, The Global Risks Report 2016 draws attention to ways that global risks could evolve and interact in the next decade. The year 2016 marks a forceful departure from past findings, as the risks about which the Report has been warning over the past decade are starting to manifest themselves in new, sometimes unexpected ways and harm people, institutions and economies. Warming climate is likely to raise this year's temperature to 1° Celsius above the pre-industrial era, 60 million people, equivalent to the world's 24th largest country and largest number in recent history, are forcibly displaced, and crimes in cyberspace cost the global economy an estimated US$445 billion, higher than many economies' national incomes. In this context, the Reportcalls for action to build resilience – the "resilience imperative" – and identifies practical examples of how it could be done.The Report also steps back and explores how emerging global risks and major trends, such as climate change, the rise of cyber dependence and income and wealth disparity are impacting already-strained societies by highlighting three clusters of risks as Risks in Focus. As resilience building is helped by the ability to analyse global risks from the perspective of specific stakeholders, the Report also analyses the significance of global risks to the business community at a regional and country-level

Análisis espacial y prognosis de la seguridad en entornos urbanos : comprensión de la trazabilidad de la conducta espacial y de su vínculo con las fuerzas motrices de la seguridad

Tesis de la Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Geografía e Historia, Departamento de Geografía Humana, leída el 30-01-2018Currently, our societies demand a permanent and trustable security. The number and typologyof threats that they are facing on daily basis can lead to their eminent collapse. The ground of theabove-mentioned status quo is simple: a security applied en mass is based on a fallacies and myths.This mythical security puts on risk much more than an ordinary clash between theoretical securitymodels: the entire social peace system is questioned. Transversally to those threats is proposed thetraceability concept, frequently used in bioscience and biometric technologies, but not in commonuse for spatial analysis purposes. Within this unprecedented research founded in the field of thespatial analysis, we will analyze the main security driving forces existing in our societies - from amulti-scale perspective - with the aim to achieve a final social improvement.The doctoral thesis presented herein covers a comprehensive pursuit of the spatial conductbehaviour and its traceability. In this thesis, focused on urban areas, it will be analyzed how thecontemporary surveillance technologies work, evaluating whether those technologies and massprograms are covering the security demanded by the societies. Within the following chapters we willreview how modern security have intentionally designed and developed a smokescreen that istricking a true pragmatic security and which is creating an unprecedented security failure. Once thissmokescreen is revealed and questioned, the results are demonstrating minimal capabilities of itsapplication and profitability for traceability purposes. What we presented herein, is not exclusively ameta-theoretical analysis of a state of art...Actualmente, nuestras sociedades demandan un estado permanente y verificable de seguridad.Los riesgos y amenazas a los que nos enfrentamos a diario pueden constituir el punto deinflexión que derive a nuestras sociedades - tal y como las conocemos y comprendemos - hacia uncolapso inminente. Los motivos de dicho status quo son simples: la seguridad - como producto - aplicadaen masa se fundamenta en un arquetipo de falacias y mitos. A pesar de que objetivamente sonindiscutibles las capacidades de vigilia tecnológica actual, la ratio volumen- eficiencia es sumamentecuestionable. Consecuentemente, el producto resultante adquirido - la seguridad como garantía de lapaz y orden social - pone en riesgo mucho más que una mera confrontación entre planteamientosmeta-teóricos: el conjunto de paz y garantías sociales vigentes en nuestra sociedad está en riesgo.Transversalmente al conjunto de riesgos y amenazas presentes nos encontramos con elconcepto de la trazabilidad, frecuentemente usado en ciencias naturales y tecnologías vinculadas alanálisis biométrico, pero raramente asociado al análisis espacial. Durante la presente investigación,de la cual no existen precedentes en cuanto al tratamiento de la temática, nos centraremos en el análisisde las fuerzas motrices vinculadas a la seguridad – desde una perspectiva multiescalar – con elobjetivo de aportar un beneficio social...Depto. de GeografíaFac. de Geografía e HistoriaTRUEunpu

Atheism and discrimination in the face of contemporary changes in the world

The aim of this article is to present the situation of atheists around the world in the face of political and cultural changes in the world due to the increase in religious radicalism, particularly Islamic one, migration and terrorism. The article is of an illustrative character and presents the review of English literature in the scope of the discussed subject matter. Furthermore, the results of the latest global reports on prevalence of atheism in the world and the phenomenon of discrimination against persons not identifying with any faith: atheists, humanists or freethinkers were presented. The results of the selected, recent studies on the social perception of atheists and the phenomena of discrimination against them were shown. Another raised issue was the new social movement called New Atheism widespread mainly in the countries of the Western culture that in the future can constitute a new social and political challenge. Conclusions: Between 2005 and 2012 the number of atheists increased by 3% and currently they constitute 13% of the population of the world, while the percentage of religious people decreased by 9%. Atheists like other minority groups are discriminated against and their situation is dependent on the country in which they live. However, the vast majority of countries in the world violates the rights of persons identifying themselves as atheists. Still, in some countries, the declaration of atheism is forbidden, and in 13 countries the death penalty can be imposed.The aim of this article is to present the situation of atheists around the world in the face of political and cultural changes in the world due to the increase in religious radicalism, particularly Islamic one, migration and terrorism. The article is of an illustrative character and presents the review of English literature in the scope of the discussed subject matter. Furthermore, the results of the latest global reports on prevalence of atheism in the world and the phenomenon of discrimination against persons not identifying with any faith: atheists, humanists or freethinkers were presented. The results of the selected, recent studies on the social perception of atheists and the phenomena of discrimination against them were shown. Another raised issue was the new social movement called New Atheism widespread mainly in the countries of the Western culture that in the future can constitute a new social and political challenge. Conclusions: Between 2005 and 2012 the number of atheists increased by 3% and currently they constitute 13% of the population of the world, while the percentage of religious people decreased by 9%. Atheists like other minority groups are discriminated against and their situation is dependent on the country in which they live. However, the vast majority of countries in the world violates the rights of persons identifying themselves as atheists. Still, in some countries, the declaration of atheism is forbidden, and in 13 countries the death penalty can be imposed