On the smoothness of nonlinear system identification

We shed new light on the \textit{smoothness} of optimization problems arising in prediction error parameter estimation of linear and nonlinear systems. We show that for regions of the parameter space where the model is not contractive, the Lipschitz constant and $\beta$-smoothness of the objective function might blow up exponentially with the simulation length, making it hard to numerically find minima within those regions or, even, to escape from them. In addition to providing theoretical understanding of this problem, this paper also proposes the use of multiple shooting as a viable solution. The proposed method minimizes the error between a prediction model and the observed values. Rather than running the prediction model over the entire dataset, multiple shooting splits the data into smaller subsets and runs the prediction model over each subset, making the simulation length a design parameter and making it possible to solve problems that would be infeasible using a standard approach. The equivalence to the original problem is obtained by including constraints in the optimization. The new method is illustrated by estimating the parameters of nonlinear systems with chaotic or unstable behavior, as well as neural networks. We also present a comparative analysis of the proposed method with multi-step-ahead prediction error minimization

A Control Engineering Approach for Designing an Optimized Treatment Plan for Fibromyalgia

abstract: There is increasing interest in the medical and behavioral health communities towards developing effective strategies for the treatment of chronic diseases. Among these lie adaptive interventions, which consider adjusting treatment dosages over time based on participant response. Control engineering offers a broad-based solution framework for optimizing the effectiveness of such interventions. In this thesis, an approach is proposed to develop dynamical models and subsequently, hybrid model predictive control schemes for assigning optimal dosages of naltrexone, an opioid antagonist, as treatment for a chronic pain condition known as fibromyalgia. System identification techniques are employed to model the dynamics from the daily diary reports completed by participants of a blind naltrexone intervention trial. These self-reports include assessments of outcomes of interest (e.g., general pain symptoms, sleep quality) and additional external variables (disturbances) that affect these outcomes (e.g., stress, anxiety, and mood). Using prediction-error methods, a multi-input model describing the effect of drug, placebo and other disturbances on outcomes of interest is developed. This discrete time model is approximated by a continuous second order model with zero, which was found to be adequate to capture the dynamics of this intervention. Data from 40 participants in two clinical trials were analyzed and participants were classified as responders and non-responders based on the models obtained from system identification. The dynamical models can be used by a model predictive controller for automated dosage selection of naltrexone using feedback/feedforward control actions in the presence of external disturbances. The clinical requirement for categorical (i.e., discrete-valued) drug dosage levels creates a need for hybrid model predictive control (HMPC). The controller features a multiple degree-of-freedom formulation that enables the user to adjust the speed of setpoint tracking, measured disturbance rejection and unmeasured disturbance rejection independently in the closed loop system. The nominal and robust performance of the proposed control scheme is examined via simulation using system identification models from a representative participant in the naltrexone intervention trial. The controller evaluation described in this thesis gives credibility to the promise and applicability of control engineering principles for optimizing adaptive interventions.Dissertation/ThesisM.S. Electrical Engineering 201