Adaptive Multiple Importance Sampling for Gaussian Processes

In applications of Gaussian processes where quantification of uncertainty is a strict requirement, it is necessary to accurately characterize the posterior distribution over Gaussian process covariance parameters. Normally, this is done by means of standard Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. Motivated by the issues related to the complexity of calculating the marginal likelihood that can make MCMC algorithms inefficient, this paper develops an alternative inference framework based on Adaptive Multiple Importance Sampling (AMIS). This paper studies the application of AMIS in the case of a Gaussian likelihood, and proposes the Pseudo-Marginal AMIS for non-Gaussian likelihoods, where the marginal likelihood is unbiasedly estimated. The results suggest that the proposed framework outperforms MCMC-based inference of covariance parameters in a wide range of scenarios and remains competitive for moderately large dimensional parameter spaces.Comment: 27 page

An objective framework to test the quality of candidate indicators of good environmental status

Large efforts are on-going within the EU to prepare the Marine Strategy Framework Directive's (MSFD) assessment of the environmental status of the European seas. This assessment will only be as good as the indicators chosen to monitor the 11 descriptors of good environmental status (GEnS). An objective and transparent framework to determine whether chosen indicators actually support the aims of this policy is, however, not yet in place. Such frameworks are needed to ensure that the limited resources available to this assessment optimize the likelihood of achieving GEnS within collaborating states. Here, we developed a hypothesis-based protocol to evaluate whether candidate indicators meet quality criteria explicit to the MSFD, which the assessment community aspires to. Eight quality criteria are distilled from existing initiatives, and a testing and scoring protocol for each of them is presented. We exemplify its application in three worked examples, covering indicators for three GEnS descriptors (1, 5, and 6), various habitat components (seaweeds, seagrasses, benthic macrofauna, and plankton), and assessment regions (Danish, Lithuanian, and UK waters). We argue that this framework provides a necessary, transparent and standardized structure to support the comparison of candidate indicators, and the decision-making process leading to indicator selection. Its application could help identify potential limitations in currently available candidate metrics and, in such cases, help focus the development of more adequate indicators. Use of such standardized approaches will facilitate the sharing of knowledge gained across the MSFD parties despite context-specificity across assessment regions, and support the evidence-based management of European seas

Complexity Analysis of Spontaneous Brain Activity in Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder: Diagnostic Implications

Background: Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is defined as the most common neurobehavioral disorder of childhood, but an objective diagnostic test is not available yet to date. Neurophychological, neuroimaging, and neurophysiological research offer ample evidence of brain and behavioral dysfunctions in ADHD, but these findings have not been useful as a diagnostic test. Methods: Whole-head magnetoencephalographic recordings were obtained from 14 diagnosed ADHD patients and 14 healthy children during resting conditions. Lempel-Ziv complexity (LZC) values were obtained for each channel and child and averaged in five sensor groups: anterior, central, left lateral, right lateral, and posterior. Results: Lempel-Ziv complexity scores were significantly higher in control subjects, with the maximum value in anterior region. Combining age and anterior complexity values allowed the correct classification of ADHD patients and control subjects with a 93% sensitivity and 79% specificity. Control subjects showed an age-related monotonic increase of LZC scores in all sensor groups, while children with ADHD exhibited a nonsignificant tendency toward decreased LZC scores. The age-related divergence resulted in a 100% specificity in children older than 9 years. Conclusions: Results support the role of a frontal hypoactivity in the diagnosis of ADHD. Moreover, the age-related divergence of complexity scores between ADHD patients and control subjects might reflect distinctive developmental trajectories. This interpretation of our results is in agreement with recent investigations reporting a delay of cortical maturation in the prefrontal corte

Evaluating the use of the Child and Adolescent Intellectual Disability Screening Questionnaire (CAIDS-Q) to estimate IQ in children with low intellectual ability

In situations where completing a full intellectual assessment is not possible or desirable the clinician or researcher may require an alternative means of accurately estimating intellectual functioning. There has been limited research in the use of proxy IQ measures in children with an intellectual disability or low IQ. The present study aimed to provide a means of converting total scores from a screening tool (the Child and Adolescent Intellectual Disability Screening Questionnaire: CAIDS-Q) to an estimated IQ. A series of linear regression analyses were conducted on data from 428 children and young people referred to clinical services, where FSIQ was predicted from CAIDS-Q total scores. Analyses were conducted for three age groups between ages 6 and 18 years. The study presents a conversion table for converting CAIDS-Q total scores to estimates of FSIQ, with corresponding 95% prediction intervals to allow the clinician or researcher to estimate FSIQ scores from CAIDS-Q total scores. It is emphasised that, while this conversion may offer a quick means of estimating intellectual functioning in children with a below average IQ, it should be used with caution, especially in children aged between 6 and 8 years old

Preschool predictors of mathematics in first grade children with autism spectrum disorder

AbstractUp till now, research evidence on the mathematical abilities of children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) has been scarce and provided mixed results. The current study examined the predictive value of five early numerical competencies for four domains of mathematics in first grade. Thirty-three high-functioning children with ASD were followed up from preschool to first grade and compared with 54 typically developing children, as well as with normed samples in first grade. Five early numerical competencies were tested in preschool (5–6 years): verbal subitizing, counting, magnitude comparison, estimation, and arithmetic operations. Four domains of mathematics were used as outcome variables in first grade (6–7 years): procedural calculation, number fact retrieval, word/language problems, and time-related competences. Children with ASD showed similar early numerical competencies at preschool age as typically developing children. Moreover, they scored average on number fact retrieval and time-related competences and higher on procedural calculation and word/language problems compared to the normed population in first grade. When predicting first grade mathematics performance in children with ASD, both verbal subitizing and counting seemed to be important to evaluate at preschool age. Verbal subitizing had a higher predictive value in children with ASD than in typically developing children. Whereas verbal subitizing was predictive for procedural calculation, number fact retrieval, and word/language problems, counting was predictive for procedural calculation and, to a lesser extent, number fact retrieval. Implications and directions for future research are discussed