Decision Support Systems for Risk Assessment in Credit Operations Against Collateral

With the global economic crisis, which reached its peak in the second half of 2008, and before a market shaken by economic instability, financial institutions have taken steps to protect the banks’ default risks, which had an impact directly in the form of analysis in credit institutions to individuals and to corporate entities. To mitigate the risk of banks in credit operations, most banks use a graded scale of customer risk, which determines the provision that banks must do according to the default risk levels in each credit transaction. The credit analysis involves the ability to make a credit decision inside a scenario of uncertainty and constant changes and incomplete transformations. This ability depends on the capacity to logically analyze situations, often complex and reach a clear conclusion, practical and practicable to implement. Credit Scoring models are used to predict the probability of a customer proposing to credit to become in default at any given time, based on his personal and financial information that may influence the ability of the client to pay the debt. This estimated probability, called the score, is an estimate of the risk of default of a customer in a given period. This increased concern has been in no small part caused by the weaknesses of existing risk management techniques that have been revealed by the recent financial crisis and the growing demand for consumer credit.The constant change affects several banking sections because it prevents the ability to investigate the data that is produced and stored in computers that are too often dependent on manual techniques. Among the many alternatives used in the world to balance this risk, the provision of guarantees stands out of guarantees in the formalization of credit agreements. In theory, the collateral does not ensure the credit return, as it is not computed as payment of the obligation within the project. There is also the fact that it will only be successful if triggered, which involves the legal area of the banking institution. The truth is, collateral is a mitigating element of credit risk. Collaterals are divided into two types, an individual guarantee (sponsor) and the asset guarantee (fiduciary). Both aim to increase security in credit operations, as an payment alternative to the holder of credit provided to the lender, if possible, unable to meet its obligations on time. For the creditor, it generates liquidity security from the receiving operation. The measurement of credit recoverability is a system that evaluates the efficiency of the collateral invested return mechanism. In an attempt to identify the sufficiency of collateral in credit operations, this thesis presents an assessment of smart classifiers that uses contextual information to assess whether collaterals provide for the recovery of credit granted in the decision-making process before the credit transaction become insolvent. The results observed when compared with other approaches in the literature and the comparative analysis of the most relevant artificial intelligence solutions, considering the classifiers that use guarantees as a parameter to calculate the risk contribute to the advance of the state of the art advance, increasing the commitment to the financial institutions.Com a crise econômica global, que atingiu seu auge no segundo semestre de 2008, e diante de um mercado abalado pela instabilidade econômica, as instituições financeiras tomaram medidas para proteger os riscos de inadimplência dos bancos, medidas que impactavam diretamente na forma de análise nas instituições de crédito para pessoas físicas e jurídicas. Para mitigar o risco dos bancos nas operações de crédito, a maioria destas instituições utiliza uma escala graduada de risco do cliente, que determina a provisão que os bancos devem fazer de acordo com os níveis de risco padrão em cada transação de crédito. A análise de crédito envolve a capacidade de tomar uma decisão de crédito dentro de um cenário de incerteza e mudanças constantes e transformações incompletas. Essa aptidão depende da capacidade de analisar situações lógicas, geralmente complexas e de chegar a uma conclusão clara, prática e praticável de implementar. Os modelos de Credit Score são usados para prever a probabilidade de um cliente propor crédito e tornar-se inadimplente a qualquer momento, com base em suas informações pessoais e financeiras que podem influenciar a capacidade do cliente de pagar a dívida. Essa probabilidade estimada, denominada pontuação, é uma estimativa do risco de inadimplência de um cliente em um determinado período. A mudança constante afeta várias seções bancárias, pois impede a capacidade de investigar os dados que são produzidos e armazenados em computadores que frequentemente dependem de técnicas manuais. Entre as inúmeras alternativas utilizadas no mundo para equilibrar esse risco, destacase o aporte de garantias na formalização dos contratos de crédito. Em tese, a garantia não “garante” o retorno do crédito, já que não é computada como pagamento da obrigação dentro do projeto. Tem-se ainda, o fato de que esta só terá algum êxito se acionada, o que envolve a área jurídica da instituição bancária. A verdade é que, a garantia é um elemento mitigador do risco de crédito. As garantias são divididas em dois tipos, uma garantia individual (patrocinadora) e a garantia do ativo (fiduciário). Ambos visam aumentar a segurança nas operações de crédito, como uma alternativa de pagamento ao titular do crédito fornecido ao credor, se possível, não puder cumprir suas obrigações no prazo. Para o credor, gera segurança de liquidez a partir da operação de recebimento. A mensuração da recuperabilidade do crédito é uma sistemática que avalia a eficiência do mecanismo de retorno do capital investido em garantias. Para tentar identificar a suficiência das garantias nas operações de crédito, esta tese apresenta uma avaliação dos classificadores inteligentes que utiliza informações contextuais para avaliar se as garantias permitem prever a recuperação de crédito concedido no processo de tomada de decisão antes que a operação de crédito entre em default. Os resultados observados quando comparados com outras abordagens existentes na literatura e a análise comparativa das soluções de inteligência artificial mais relevantes, mostram que os classificadores que usam garantias como parâmetro para calcular o risco contribuem para o avanço do estado da arte, aumentando o comprometimento com as instituições financeiras

An Examination of the Evolution of Broadband Technologies in the UK

The aim of this thesis is to examine the reasons due to which Digital Subscriber Line (DSL) became the most widely used technology to deliver broadband connectivity in the United Kingdom (UK). The research examines the outcome starting with events in 1960s when broadband as it is defined today did not exist. The research shows that a combination of factors involving regulatory decisions, changing market conditions, and unexpected technological breakthroughs contributed to the current day mix of broadband technologies in the last mile access in the UK. To interpret the events that have shaped the development, deployment, and adoption of broadband technologies in the UK, the thesis draws from various theoretical ideas related to Science and Technology Studies (STS) to understand and analyse the events. In order to discover and establish the historical context, the thesis employs original, unpublished interviews along with the extensive use of archival material and secondary sources. Influenced by some of the core ideas of social constructionist studies, this research combines concepts from economic studies of technological change along with themes involving maintenance of technology, path dependence, and the role of bandwagon effect. These research threads are combined to understand the way development, deployment, and adoption of broadband technologies took place in the UK. The research is intended to contribute to the understanding of technology in a constantly changing regulatory and socio-economic environment and how it is shaped by multiple factors. The targeted readership is researchers, analysts, and decision makers working with broadband technology, telecommunications policy, and STS. Further research is suggested in the form of studies of wireless broadband technologies and the role of regulatory policies in the development of the UK communications market

Journal of Telecommunications and Information Technology

kwartalni

Resource Allocation and Service Management in Next Generation 5G Wireless Networks

The accelerated evolution towards next generation networks is expected to dramatically increase mobile data traffic, posing challenging requirements for future radio cellular communications. User connections are multiplying, whilst data hungry content is dominating wireless services putting significant pressure on network's available spectrum. Ensuring energy-efficient and low latency transmissions, while maintaining advanced Quality of Service (QoS) and high standards of user experience are of profound importance in order to address diversifying user prerequisites and ensure superior and sustainable network performance. At the same time, the rise of 5G networks and the Internet of Things (IoT) evolution is transforming wireless infrastructure towards enhanced heterogeneity, multi-tier architectures and standards, as well as new disruptive telecommunication technologies. The above developments require a rethinking of how wireless networks are designed and operate, in conjunction with the need to understand more holistically how users interact with the network and with each other. In this dissertation, we tackle the problem of efficient resource allocation and service management in various network topologies under a user-centric approach. In the direction of ad-hoc and self-organizing networks where the decision making process lies at the user level, we develop a novel and generic enough framework capable of solving a wide array of problems with regards to resource distribution in an adaptable and multi-disciplinary manner. Aiming at maximizing user satisfaction and also achieve high performance - low power resource utilization, the theory of network utility maximization is adopted, with the examined problems being formulated as non-cooperative games. The considered games are solved via the principles of Game Theory and Optimization, while iterative and low complexity algorithms establish their convergence to steady operational outcomes, i.e., Nash Equilibrium points. This thesis consists a meaningful contribution to the current state of the art research in the field of wireless network optimization, by allowing users to control multiple degrees of freedom with regards to their transmission, considering mobile customers and their strategies as the key elements for the amelioration of network's performance, while also adopting novel technologies in the resource management problems. First, multi-variable resource allocation problems are studied for multi-tier architectures with the use of femtocells, addressing the topic of efficient power and/or rate control, while also the topic is examined in Visible Light Communication (VLC) networks under various access technologies. Next, the problem of customized resource pricing is considered as a separate and bounded resource to be optimized under distinct scenarios, which expresses users' willingness to pay instead of being commonly implemented by a central administrator in the form of penalties. The investigation is further expanded by examining the case of service provider selection in competitive telecommunication markets which aim to increase their market share by applying different pricing policies, while the users model the selection process by behaving as learning automata under a Machine Learning framework. Additionally, the problem of resource allocation is examined for heterogeneous services where users are enabled to dynamically pick the modules needed for their transmission based on their preferences, via the concept of Service Bundling. Moreover, in this thesis we examine the correlation of users' energy requirements with their transmission needs, by allowing the adaptive energy harvesting to reflect the consumed power in the subsequent information transmission in Wireless Powered Communication Networks (WPCNs). Furthermore, in this thesis a fresh perspective with respect to resource allocation is provided assuming real life conditions, by modeling user behavior under Prospect Theory. Subjectivity in decisions of users is introduced in situations of high uncertainty in a more pragmatic manner compared to the literature, where they behave as blind utility maximizers. In addition, network spectrum is considered as a fragile resource which might collapse if over-exploited under the principles of the Tragedy of the Commons, allowing hence users to sense risk and redefine their strategies accordingly. The above framework is applied in different cases where users have to select between a safe and a common pool of resources (CPR) i.e., licensed and unlicensed bands, different access technologies, etc., while also the impact of pricing in protecting resource fragility is studied. Additionally, the above resource allocation problems are expanded in Public Safety Networks (PSNs) assisted by Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), while also aspects related to network security against malign user behaviors are examined. Finally, all the above problems are thoroughly evaluated and tested via a series of arithmetic simulations with regards to the main characteristics of their operation, as well as against other approaches from the literature. In each case, important performance gains are identified with respect to the overall energy savings and increased spectrum utilization, while also the advantages of the proposed framework are mirrored in the improvement of the satisfaction and the superior Quality of Service of each user within the network. Lastly, the flexibility and scalability of this work allow for interesting applications in other domains related to resource allocation in wireless networks and beyond

Proceedings, MSVSCC 2012

Proceedings of the 6th Annual Modeling, Simulation & Visualization Student Capstone Conference held on April 19, 2012 at VMASC in Suffolk, Virginia

Disinformation and Fact-Checking in Contemporary Society

Funded by the European Media and Information Fund and research project PID2022-142755OB-I00

Les opérateurs sauront-ils survivre dans un monde en constante évolution? Considérations techniques conduisant à des scénarios de rupture

Le secteur des télécommunications passe par une phase délicate en raison de profondes mutations technologiques, principalement motivées par le développement de l'Internet. Elles ont un impact majeur sur l'industrie des télécommunications dans son ensemble et, par conséquent, sur les futurs déploiements des nouveaux réseaux, plateformes et services. L'évolution de l'Internet a un impact particulièrement fort sur les opérateurs des télécommunications (Telcos). En fait, l'industrie des télécommunications est à la veille de changements majeurs en raison de nombreux facteurs, comme par exemple la banalisation progressive de la connectivité, la domination dans le domaine des services de sociétés du web (Webcos), l'importance croissante de solutions à base de logiciels et la flexibilité qu'elles introduisent (par rapport au système statique des opérateurs télécoms). Cette thèse élabore, propose et compare les scénarios possibles basés sur des solutions et des approches qui sont technologiquement viables. Les scénarios identifiés couvrent un large éventail de possibilités: 1) Telco traditionnel; 2) Telco transporteur de Bits; 3) Telco facilitateur de Plateforme; 4) Telco fournisseur de services; 5) Disparition des Telco. Pour chaque scénario, une plateforme viable (selon le point de vue des opérateurs télécoms) est décrite avec ses avantages potentiels et le portefeuille de services qui pourraient être fournisThe telecommunications industry is going through a difficult phase because of profound technological changes, mainly originated by the development of the Internet. They have a major impact on the telecommunications industry as a whole and, consequently, the future deployment of new networks, platforms and services. The evolution of the Internet has a particularly strong impact on telecommunications operators (Telcos). In fact, the telecommunications industry is on the verge of major changes due to many factors, such as the gradual commoditization of connectivity, the dominance of web services companies (Webcos), the growing importance of software based solutions that introduce flexibility (compared to static system of telecom operators). This thesis develops, proposes and compares plausible future scenarios based on future solutions and approaches that will be technologically feasible and viable. Identified scenarios cover a wide range of possibilities: 1) Traditional Telco; 2) Telco as Bit Carrier; 3) Telco as Platform Provider; 4) Telco as Service Provider; 5) Telco Disappearance. For each scenario, a viable platform (from the point of view of telecom operators) is described highlighting the enabled service portfolio and its potential benefitsEVRY-INT (912282302) / SudocSudocFranceF