Sea ice trends in climate models only accurate in runs with biased global warming

Observations indicate that the Arctic sea ice cover is rapidly retreating while the Antarctic sea ice cover is steadily expanding. State-of-the-art climate models, by contrast, typically simulate a moderate decrease in both the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice covers. However, in each hemisphere there is a small subset of model simulations that have sea ice trends similar to the observations. Based on this, a number of recent studies have suggested that the models are consistent with the observations in each hemisphere when simulated internal climate variability is taken into account. Here we examine sea ice changes during 1979-2013 in simulations from the most recent Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) as well as the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE), drawing on previous work that found a close relationship in climate models between global-mean surface temperature and sea ice extent. We find that all of the simulations with 1979-2013 Arctic sea ice retreat as fast as observed have considerably more global warming than observations during this time period. Using two separate methods to estimate the sea ice retreat that would occur under the observed level of global warming in each simulation in both ensembles, we find that simulated Arctic sea ice retreat as fast as observed would occur less than 1% of the time. This implies that the models are not consistent with the observations. In the Antarctic, we find that simulated sea ice expansion as fast as observed typically corresponds with too little global warming, although these results are more equivocal. We show that because of this, the simulations do not capture the observed asymmetry between Arctic and Antarctic sea ice trends. This suggests that the models may be getting the right sea ice trends for the wrong reasons in both polar regions

The IceCube Neutrino Observatory Part VI: Ice Properties, Reconstruction and Future Developments

Papers on ice properties, reconstruction and future developments submitted to the 33nd International Cosmic Ray Conference (Rio de Janeiro 2013) by the IceCube Collaboration.Comment: 28 pages, 38 figures; Papers submitted to the 33nd International Cosmic Ray Conference, Rio de Janeiro 2013; version 2 corrects errors in the author lis

First ground penetrating radar survey on Monte Perdido glacier (Pyrenees)

Producción CientíficaThe project “The Monte Perdido Glacier: Monitoring the glacial dynamic and the associated cryospheric processes as indicators of global change” (National Park´s 2013 Fund) aims to study the recent dynamic and degradation of this ice mass, using geomatic and geophysical techniques in order to estimate thickness and potential volumetric variations. We present the first ground penetrating radar survey, carried out on the northwest section of the lower Monte Perdido Glacier. The survey was conducted along a 270 m transect, using three antennas of different frequencies -500, 200 and 50 MHz- that enabled us to study the glacier´s structure at various maximum depths and spatial resolutions. The results show a first section composed by several seasonal snow layers (2015-2016 winter and spring), a clear snow/ice transition layer, an ice layer and a final basal zone characterised by typical sub-glacial till sediments.Ministerio de Agricultura y Pesca, Alimentación y Medio Ambiente (project 844/2013)Junta de Extremadura - Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional (grant GR15107

Emergence of the Shackleton Range from beneath the Antarctic Ice Sheet due to glacial erosion

This paper explores the long-term evolution of a subglacial fjord landscape in the Shackleton Range, Antarctica. We propose that prolonged ice-sheet erosion across a passive continental margin caused troughs to deepen and lower the surrounding ice-sheet surface, leaving adjacent mountains exposed. Geomorphological evidence suggests a change in the direction of regional ice flow accompanied emergence. Simple calculations suggest that isostatic compensation caused by the deepening of bounding ice-stream troughs lowered the ice-sheet surface relative to the mountains by ~800m. Use of multiple cosmogenic isotopes on bedrock and erratics (26Al, 10Be, 21Ne) provides evidence that overriding of the massif and the deepening of the adjacent troughs occurred earlier than the Quaternary. Perhaps this occurred in the mid-Miocene, as elsewhere in East Antarctica in the McMurdo Dry Valleys and the Lambert basin. The implication is that glacial erosion instigates feedback that can change ice-sheet thickness, extent, and direction of flow. Indeed, as the subglacial troughs evolve over millions of years, they increase topographic relief; and this changes the dynamics of the ice sheet. © 2013 Elsevier B.V

Thinning of the Monte Perdido Glacier in the Spanish Pyrenees since 1981

Producción CientíficaThis paper analyzes the evolution of the Monte Perdido Glacier, the third largest glacier in the Pyrenees, from 1981 to the present. We assessed the evolution of the glacier's surface area by analysis of aerial photographs from 1981, 1999, and 2006, and changes in ice volume by geodetic methods with digital elevation models (DEMs) generated from topographic maps (1981 and 1999), airborne lidar (2010) and terrestrial laser scanning (TLS, 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2014) data. We interpreted the changes in the glacier based on climate data from nearby meteorological stations. The results indicate that the degradation of this glacier accelerated after 1999. The rate of ice surface loss was almost three times greater during 1999–2006 than during earlier periods. Moreover, the rate of glacier thinning was 1.85 times faster during 1999–2010 (rate of surface elevation change  = −8.98 ± 1.80 m, glacier-wide mass balance  = −0.73 ± 0.14 m w.e. yr−1) than during 1981–1999 (rate of surface elevation change  = −8.35 ± 2.12 m, glacier-wide mass balance  = −0.42 ± 0.10 m w.e. yr−1). From 2011 to 2014, ice thinning continued at a slower rate (rate of surface elevation change  = −1.93 ± 0.4 m yr−1, glacier-wide mass balance  = −0.58 ± 0.36 m w.e. yr−1). This deceleration in ice thinning compared to the previous 17 years can be attributed, at least in part, to two consecutive anomalously wet winters and cool summers (2012–2013 and 2013–2014), counteracted to some degree by the intense thinning that occurred during the dry and warm 2011–2012 period. However, local climatic changes observed during the study period do not seem sufficient to explain the acceleration of ice thinning of this glacier, because precipitation and air temperature did not exhibit statistically significant trends during the study period. Rather, the accelerated degradation of this glacier in recent years can be explained by a strong disequilibrium between the glacier and the current climate, and likely by other factors affecting the energy balance (e.g., increased albedo in spring) and feedback mechanisms (e.g., heat emitted from recently exposed bedrock and debris covered areas).Ministerio de Economía, Industria y Competitividad - IBERNIEVE (project CGL2014-52599-P)Ministerio de Agricultura y Pesca, Alimentación y Medio Ambiente (project 844/2013

Predicting September sea ice: Ensemble skill of the SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook 2008-2013

Abstract Since 2008, the Study of Environmental Arctic Change Sea Ice Outlook has solicited predictions of September sea-ice extent from the Arctic research community. Individuals and teams employ a variety of modeling, statistical, and heuristic approaches to make these predictions. Viewed as monthly ensembles each with one or two dozen individual predictions, they display a bimodal pattern of success. In years when observed ice extent is near its trend, the median predictions tend to be accurate. In years when the observed extent is anomalous, the median and most individual predictions are less accurate. Statistical analysis suggests that year-to-year variability, rather than methods, dominate the variation in ensemble prediction success. Furthermore, ensemble predictions do not improve as the season evolves. We consider the role of initial ice, atmosphere and ocean conditions, and summer storms and weather in contributing to the challenge of sea-ice prediction. Key Points Analysis of Sea Ice Outlook contributions 2008-2013 shows bimodal success Years when observations depart from trend are hard to predict despite preconditioning Yearly conditions dominate variations in ensemble prediction success

Predicting September sea ice: Ensemble skill of the SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook 2008–2013

Since 2008, the Study of Environmental Arctic Change Sea Ice Outlook has solicited predictions of September sea-ice extent from the Arctic research community. Individuals and teams employ a variety of modeling, statistical, and heuristic approaches to make these predictions. Viewed as monthly ensembles each with one or two dozen individual predictions, they display a bimodal pattern of success. In years when observed ice extent is near its trend, the median predictions tend to be accurate. In years when the observed extent is anomalous, the median and most individual predictions are less accurate. Statistical analysis suggests that year-to-year variability, rather than methods, dominate the variation in ensemble prediction success. Furthermore, ensemble predictions do not improve as the season evolves. We consider the role of initial ice, atmosphere and ocean conditions, and summer storms and weather in contributing to the challenge of sea-ice prediction

Faster Arctic sea ice retreat in CMIP5 than in CMIP3 due to volcanoes

The downward trend in Arctic sea ice extent is one of the most dramatic signals of climate change during recent decades. Comprehensive climate models have struggled to reproduce this, typically simulating a slower rate of sea ice retreat than has been observed. However, this bias has been widely noted to have decreased in models participating in the most recent phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) compared with the previous generation of models (CMIP3). Here we examine simulations from both CMIP3 and CMIP5. We find that simulated historical sea ice trends are influenced by volcanic forcing, which was included in all of the CMIP5 models but in only about half of the CMIP3 models. The volcanic forcing causes temporary simulated cooling in the 1980s and 1990s, which contributes to raising the simulated 1979-2013 global-mean surface temperature trends to values substantially larger than observed. We show that this warming bias is accompanied by an enhanced rate of Arctic sea ice retreat and hence a simulated sea ice trend that is closer to the observed value, which is consistent with previous findings of an approximately linear relationship between sea ice extent and global-mean surface temperature. We find that both generations of climate models simulate Arctic sea ice that is substantially less sensitive to global warming than has been observed. The results imply that the much of the difference in Arctic sea ice trends between CMIP3 and CMIP5 occurred due to the inclusion of volcanic forcing, rather than improved sea ice physics or model resolution.Comment: revised submission to Journal of Climat

Findings from the DUMA program: methamphetamine drug market trends

Introduction Methamphetamine is a drug of national concern, with the Australian Crime Commission assessing it to be the illicit drug posing the greatest risk to the Australian community. The Australian Institute of Health and Welfare’s (AIHW) 2013 National Drug Strategy Household Survey (NDSHS) reported that approximately 400,000 Australians had used meth/amphetamines in the previous 12 months. The NDSHS reported a stable rate of meth/amphetamine use in the general community from 2010 to 2013 of 2.1 percent. However, there was a shift in the type of meth/amphetamine used, from powder to purer forms like ice or crystal methamphetamine. Specifically, powder meth/amphetamine use among recent users decreased from 51 percent to 29 percent, while ice use more than doubled from 22 percent to 50 percent. In line with this, the frequency of methamphetamine use among injecting drug users in Melbourne remained consistent from 2008 to 2014, but users reported transitioning from powder to crystal forms of methamphetamine. Frequency of use of methamphetamine has also changed across the 2010 to 2013 period. In 2013, 15.5 percent of recent meth/amphetamine users reported daily or weekly use, compared with 9.3 percent in the 2010 survey. When examining use by form, approximately a quarter of users who mainly used ice reported using it at least weekly, compared with 2.2 percent of powder users who reported weekly use. Scott et al.’s study of injecting drug users in Melbourne found that those already using methamphetamine were starting to purchase the drug more frequently in 2013 compared with 2011