Hybrid Advanced Optimization Methods with Evolutionary Computation Techniques in Energy Forecasting

More accurate and precise energy demand forecasts are required when energy decisions are made in a competitive environment. Particularly in the Big Data era, forecasting models are always based on a complex function combination, and energy data are always complicated. Examples include seasonality, cyclicity, fluctuation, dynamic nonlinearity, and so on. These forecasting models have resulted in an over-reliance on the use of informal judgment and higher expenses when lacking the ability to determine data characteristics and patterns. The hybridization of optimization methods and superior evolutionary algorithms can provide important improvements via good parameter determinations in the optimization process, which is of great assistance to actions taken by energy decision-makers. This book aimed to attract researchers with an interest in the research areas described above. Specifically, it sought contributions to the development of any hybrid optimization methods (e.g., quadratic programming techniques, chaotic mapping, fuzzy inference theory, quantum computing, etc.) with advanced algorithms (e.g., genetic algorithms, ant colony optimization, particle swarm optimization algorithm, etc.) that have superior capabilities over the traditional optimization approaches to overcome some embedded drawbacks, and the application of these advanced hybrid approaches to significantly improve forecasting accuracy

Big Data Analysis application in the renewable energy market: wind power

Entre as enerxías renovables, a enerxía eólica e unha das tecnoloxías mundiais de rápido crecemento. Non obstante, esta incerteza debería minimizarse para programar e xestionar mellor os activos de xeración tradicionais para compensar a falta de electricidade nas redes electricas. A aparición de técnicas baseadas en datos ou aprendizaxe automática deu a capacidade de proporcionar predicións espaciais e temporais de alta resolución da velocidade e potencia do vento. Neste traballo desenvólvense tres modelos diferentes de ANN, abordando tres grandes problemas na predición de series de datos con esta técnica: garantía de calidade de datos e imputación de datos non válidos, asignación de hiperparámetros e selección de funcións. Os modelos desenvolvidos baséanse en técnicas de agrupación, optimización e procesamento de sinais para proporcionar predicións de velocidade e potencia do vento a curto e medio prazo (de minutos a horas)

Hybrid learning for interval type-2 intuitionistic fuzzy logic systems as applied to identification and prediction problems

This paper presents a novel application of a hybrid learning approach to the optimisation of membership and non-membership functions of a newly developed interval type-2 intuitionistic fuzzy logic system (IT2 IFLS) of a Takagi-Sugeno-Kang (TSK) fuzzy inference system with neural network learning capability. The hybrid algorithms consisting of decou- pled extended Kalman filter (DEKF) and gradient descent (GD) are used to tune the parameters of the IT2 IFLS for the first time. The DEKF is used to tune the consequent parameters in the forward pass while the GD method is used to tune the antecedents parts during the backward pass of the hybrid learning. The hybrid algorithm is described and evaluated, prediction and identification results together with the runtime are compared with similar existing studies in the literature. Performance comparison is made between the proposed hybrid learning model of IT2 IFLS, a TSK-type-1 intuitionistic fuzzy logic system (IFLS-TSK) and a TSK-type interval type-2 fuzzy logic system (IT2 FLS-TSK) on two instances of the datasets under investigation. The empirical comparison is made on the designed systems using three artificially generated datasets and three real world datasets. Analysis of results reveal that IT2 IFLS outperforms its type-1 variants, IT2 FLS and most of the existing models in the literature. Moreover, the minimal run time of the proposed hybrid learning model for IT2 IFLS also puts this model forward as a good candidate for application in real time systems

Probabilistic and artificial intelligence modelling of drought and agricultural crop yield in Pakistan

Pakistan is a drought-prone, agricultural nation with hydro-meteorological imbalances that increase the scarcity of water resources, thus, constraining water availability and leading major risks to the agricultural productivity sector and food security. Rainfall and drought are imperative matters of consideration, both for hydrological and agricultural applications. The aim of this doctoral thesis is to advance new knowledge in designing hybridized probabilistic and artificial intelligence forecasts models for rainfall, drought and crop yield within the agricultural hubs in Pakistan. The choice of these study regions is a strategic decision, to focus on precision agriculture given the importance of rainfall and drought events on agricultural crops in socioeconomic activities of Pakistan. The outcomes of this PhD contribute to efficient modelling of seasonal rainfall, drought and crop yield to assist farmers and other stakeholders to promote more strategic decisions for better management of climate risk for agriculturalreliant nations

Development of registration methods for cardiovascular anatomy and function using advanced 3T MRI, 320-slice CT and PET imaging

Different medical imaging modalities provide complementary anatomical and functional information. One increasingly important use of such information is in the clinical management of cardiovascular disease. Multi-modality data is helping improve diagnosis accuracy, and individualize treatment. The Clinical Research Imaging Centre at the University of Edinburgh, has been involved in a number of cardiovascular clinical trials using longitudinal computed tomography (CT) and multi-parametric magnetic resonance (MR) imaging. The critical image processing technique that combines the information from all these different datasets is known as image registration, which is the topic of this thesis. Image registration, especially multi-modality and multi-parametric registration, remains a challenging field in medical image analysis. The new registration methods described in this work were all developed in response to genuine challenges in on-going clinical studies. These methods have been evaluated using data from these studies. In order to gain an insight into the building blocks of image registration methods, the thesis begins with a comprehensive literature review of state-of-the-art algorithms. This is followed by a description of the first registration method I developed to help track inflammation in aortic abdominal aneurysms. It registers multi-modality and multi-parametric images, with new contrast agents. The registration framework uses a semi-automatically generated region of interest around the aorta. The aorta is aligned based on a combination of the centres of the regions of interest and intensity matching. The method achieved sub-voxel accuracy. The second clinical study involved cardiac data. The first framework failed to register many of these datasets, because the cardiac data suffers from a common artefact of magnetic resonance images, namely intensity inhomogeneity. Thus I developed a new preprocessing technique that is able to correct the artefacts in the functional data using data from the anatomical scans. The registration framework, with this preprocessing step and new particle swarm optimizer, achieved significantly improved registration results on the cardiac data, and was validated quantitatively using neuro images from a clinical study of neonates. Although on average the new framework achieved accurate results, when processing data corrupted by severe artefacts and noise, premature convergence of the optimizer is still a common problem. To overcome this, I invented a new optimization method, that achieves more robust convergence by encoding prior knowledge of registration. The registration results from this new registration-oriented optimizer are more accurate than other general-purpose particle swarm optimization methods commonly applied to registration problems. In summary, this thesis describes a series of novel developments to an image registration framework, aimed to improve accuracy, robustness and speed. The resulting registration framework was applied to, and validated by, different types of images taken from several ongoing clinical trials. In the future, this framework could be extended to include more diverse transformation models, aided by new machine learning techniques. It may also be applied to the registration of other types and modalities of imaging data

Advanced Data Analytics Methodologies for Anomaly Detection in Multivariate Time Series Vehicle Operating Data

Early detection of faults in the vehicle operating systems is a research domain of high significance to sustain full control of the systems since anomalous behaviors usually result in performance loss for a long time before detecting them as critical failures. In other words, operating systems exhibit degradation when failure begins to occur. Indeed, multiple presences of the failures in the system performance are not only anomalous behavior signals but also show that taking maintenance actions to keep the system performance is vital. Maintaining the systems in the nominal performance for the lifetime with the lowest maintenance cost is extremely challenging and it is important to be aware of imminent failure before it arises and implement the best countermeasures to avoid extra losses. In this context, the timely anomaly detection of the performance of the operating system is worthy of investigation. Early detection of imminent anomalous behaviors of the operating system is difficult without appropriate modeling, prediction, and analysis of the time series records of the system. Data based technologies have prepared a great foundation to develop advanced methods for modeling and prediction of time series data streams. In this research, we propose novel methodologies to predict the patterns of multivariate time series operational data of the vehicle and recognize the second-wise unhealthy states. These approaches help with the early detection of abnormalities in the behavior of the vehicle based on multiple data channels whose second-wise records for different functional working groups in the operating systems of the vehicle. Furthermore, a real case study data set is used to validate the accuracy of the proposed prediction and anomaly detection methodologies

Machine learning assisted optimization with applications to diesel engine optimization with the particle swarm optimization algorithm

A novel approach to incorporating Machine Learning into optimization routines is presented. An approach which combines the benefits of ML, optimization, and meta-model searching is developed and tested on a multi-modal test problem; a modified Rastragin\u27s function. An enhanced Particle Swarm Optimization method was derived from the initial testing. Optimization of a diesel engine was carried out using the modified algorithm demonstrating an improvement of 83% compared with the unmodified PSO algorithm. Additionally, an approach to enhancing the training of ML models by leveraging Virtual Sensing as an alternative to standard multi-layer neural networks is presented. Substantial gains were made in the prediction of Particulate matter, reducing the MMSE by 50% and improving the correlation R^2 from 0.84 to 0.98. Improvements were made in models of PM, NOx, HC, CO, and Fuel Consumption using the method, while training times and convergence reliability were simultaneously improved over the traditional approach

Analysis of physiological signals using machine learning methods

Technological advances in data collection enable scientists to suggest novel approaches, such as Machine Learning algorithms, to process and make sense of this information. However, during this process of collection, data loss and damage can occur for reasons such as faulty device sensors or miscommunication. In the context of time-series data such as multi-channel bio-signals, there is a possibility of losing a whole channel. In such cases, existing research suggests imputing the missing parts when the majority of data is available. One way of understanding and classifying complex signals is by using deep neural networks. The hyper-parameters of such models have been optimised using the process of back propagation. Over time, improvements have been suggested to enhance this algorithm. However, an essential drawback of the back propagation can be the sensitivity to noisy data. This thesis proposes two novel approaches to address the missing data challenge and back propagation drawbacks: First, suggesting a gradient-free model in order to discover the optimal hyper-parameters of a deep neural network. The complexity of deep networks and high-dimensional optimisation parameters presents challenges to find a suitable network structure and hyper-parameter configuration. This thesis proposes the use of a minimalist swarm optimiser, Dispersive Flies Optimisation(DFO), to enable the selected model to achieve better results in comparison with the traditional back propagation algorithm in certain conditions such as limited number of training samples. The DFO algorithm offers a robust search process for finding and determining the hyper-parameter configurations. Second, imputing whole missing bio-signals within a multi-channel sample. This approach comprises two experiments, namely the two-signal and five-signal imputation models. The first experiment attempts to implement and evaluate the performance of a model mapping bio-signals from A toB and vice versa. Conceptually, this is an extension to transfer learning using CycleGenerative Adversarial Networks (CycleGANs). The second experiment attempts to suggest a mechanism imputing missing signals in instances where multiple data channels are available for each sample. The capability to map to a target signal through multiple source domains achieves a more accurate estimate for the target domain. The results of the experiments performed indicate that in certain circumstances, such as having a limited number of samples, finding the optimal hyper-parameters of a neural network using gradient-free algorithms outperforms traditional gradient-based algorithms, leading to more accurate classification results. In addition, Generative Adversarial Networks could be used to impute the missing data channels in multi-channel bio-signals, and the generated data used for further analysis and classification tasks

Advanced BEM-based methodologies to identify and simulate wave fields in complex geostructures

To enhance the applicability of BEM for geomechanical modeling numerically optimized BEM models, hybrid FEM-BEM models, and parallel computation of seismic Full Waveform Inversion (FWI) in GPU are implemented. Inverse modeling of seismic wave propagation in inhomogeneous and heterogeneous half-plane is implemented in Boundary Element Method (BEM) using Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO). The Boundary Integral Equations (BIE) based on the fundamental solutions for homogeneous elastic isotropic continuum are modified by introducing mesh-dependent variables. The variables are optimized to obtain the site-specific impedance functions. The PSO-optimized BEM models have significantly improved the efficiency of BEM for seismic wave propagation in arbitrarily inhomogeneous and heterogeneous media. Similarly, a hybrid BEM-FEM approach is developed to evaluate the seismic response of a complex poroelastic soil region containing underground structures. The far-field semi-infinite geological region is modeled via BEM, while the near-field finite geological region is modeled via FEM. The BEM region is integrated into the global FEM system using an equivalent macro-finite-element. The model describes the entire wave path from the seismic source to the local site in a single hybrid model. Additionally, the computational efficiency of time domain FWI algorithm is enhanced by parallel computation in CPU and GPU

A seasonal auto-regressive model based support vector regression prediction method for H5N1 avian influenza animal events

The time series prediction of avian influenza epidemics is a complex issue, because avian influenza has latent seasonality which is difficult to identify. Although researchers have applied a neural network (NN) model and the Box-Jenkins model for the seasonal epidemic series research area, the results are limited. In this study, we develop a new prediction seasonal auto-regressive-based support vector regression (SAR-SVR) model which combines the seasonal auto-regressive (SAR) model with a support vector regression (SVR) model to address this prediction problem to overcome existing limitations. Fast Fourier transformation is also merged into this method to identify the latent seasonality inside the time series. The experiments demonstrate that the developed SAR-SVR method out-performs SVR, Box-Jenkins models and two layer feed forward NN model-both in accuracy and stability in the avian influenza epidemic disease time series prediction. © 2011 Imperial College Press