Multi-objective particle swarm optimization algorithm for multi-step electric load forecasting

As energy saving becomes more and more popular, electric load forecasting has played a more and more crucial role in power management systems in the last few years. Because of the real-time characteristic of electricity and the uncertainty change of an electric load, realizing the accuracy and stability of electric load forecasting is a challenging task. Many predecessors have obtained the expected forecasting results by various methods. Considering the stability of time series prediction, a novel combined electric load forecasting, which based on extreme learning machine (ELM), recurrent neural network (RNN), and support vector machines (SVMs), was proposed. The combined model first uses three neural networks to forecast the electric load data separately considering that the single model has inevitable disadvantages, the combined model applies the multi-objective particle swarm optimization algorithm (MOPSO) to optimize the parameters. In order to verify the capacity of the proposed combined model, 1-step, 2-step, and 3-step are used to forecast the electric load data of three Australian states, including New South Wales, Queensland, and Victoria. The experimental results intuitively indicate that for these three datasets, the combined model outperforms all three individual models used for comparison, which demonstrates its superior capability in terms of accuracy and stability

Short-term electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market by a hybrid PSO-ANFIS approach

In this paper, a novel hybrid approach is proposed for electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market, considering a time horizon of one week. The proposed approach is based on the combination of particle swarm optimization and adaptive-network based fuzzy inference system. Results from a case study based on the electricity market of mainland Spain are presented. A thorough comparison is carried out, taking into account the results of previous publications, to demonstrate its effectiveness regarding forecasting accuracy and computation time. Finally, conclusions are duly drawn. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

Computational intelligence approaches for energy load forecasting in smart energy management grids: state of the art, future challenges, and research directions and Research Directions

Energy management systems are designed to monitor, optimize, and control the smart grid energy market. Demand-side management, considered as an essential part of the energy management system, can enable utility market operators to make better management decisions for energy trading between consumers and the operator. In this system, a priori knowledge about the energy load pattern can help reshape the load and cut the energy demand curve, thus allowing a better management and distribution of the energy in smart grid energy systems. Designing a computationally intelligent load forecasting (ILF) system is often a primary goal of energy demand management. This study explores the state of the art of computationally intelligent (i.e., machine learning) methods that are applied in load forecasting in terms of their classification and evaluation for sustainable operation of the overall energy management system. More than 50 research papers related to the subject identified in existing literature are classified into two categories: namely the single and the hybrid computational intelligence (CI)-based load forecasting technique. The advantages and disadvantages of each individual techniques also discussed to encapsulate them into the perspective into the energy management research. The identified methods have been further investigated by a qualitative analysis based on the accuracy of the prediction, which confirms the dominance of hybrid forecasting methods, which are often applied as metaheurstic algorithms considering the different optimization techniques over single model approaches. Based on extensive surveys, the review paper predicts a continuous future expansion of such literature on different CI approaches and their optimizations with both heuristic and metaheuristic methods used for energy load forecasting and their potential utilization in real-time smart energy management grids to address future challenges in energy demand managemen

Forecasting tools and probabilistic scheduling approach incorporatins renewables uncertainty for the insular power systems industry

Nowadays, the paradigm shift in the electricity sector and the advent of the smart grid, along with the growing impositions of a gradual reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, pose numerous challenges related with the sustainable management of power systems. The insular power systems industry is heavily dependent on imported energy, namely fossil fuels, and also on seasonal tourism behavior, which strongly influences the local economy. In comparison with the mainland power system, the behavior of insular power systems is highly influenced by the stochastic nature of the renewable energy sources available. The insular electricity grid is particularly sensitive to power quality parameters, mainly to frequency and voltage deviations, and a greater integration of endogenous renewables potential in the power system may affect the overall reliability and security of energy supply, so singular care should be placed in all forecasting and system operation procedures. The goals of this thesis are focused on the development of new decision support tools, for the reliable forecasting of market prices and wind power, for the optimal economic dispatch and unit commitment considering renewable generation, and for the smart control of energy storage systems. The new methodologies developed are tested in real case studies, demonstrating their computational proficiency comparatively to the current state-of-the-art

Attributes of Big Data Analytics for Data-Driven Decision Making in Cyber-Physical Power Systems

Big data analytics is a virtually new term in power system terminology. This concept delves into the way a massive volume of data is acquired, processed, analyzed to extract insight from available data. In particular, big data analytics alludes to applications of artificial intelligence, machine learning techniques, data mining techniques, time-series forecasting methods. Decision-makers in power systems have been long plagued by incapability and weakness of classical methods in dealing with large-scale real practical cases due to the existence of thousands or millions of variables, being time-consuming, the requirement of a high computation burden, divergence of results, unjustifiable errors, and poor accuracy of the model. Big data analytics is an ongoing topic, which pinpoints how to extract insights from these large data sets. The extant article has enumerated the applications of big data analytics in future power systems through several layers from grid-scale to local-scale. Big data analytics has many applications in the areas of smart grid implementation, electricity markets, execution of collaborative operation schemes, enhancement of microgrid operation autonomy, management of electric vehicle operations in smart grids, active distribution network control, district hub system management, multi-agent energy systems, electricity theft detection, stability and security assessment by PMUs, and better exploitation of renewable energy sources. The employment of big data analytics entails some prerequisites, such as the proliferation of IoT-enabled devices, easily-accessible cloud space, blockchain, etc. This paper has comprehensively conducted an extensive review of the applications of big data analytics along with the prevailing challenges and solutions

Hybrid artificial intelligence algorithms for short-term load and price forecasting in competitive electric markets

The liberalization and deregulation of electric markets forced the various participants to accommodate several challenges, including: a considerable accumulation of new generation capacity from renewable sources (fundamentally wind energy), the unpredictability associated with these new forms of generation and new consumption patterns, contributing to further electricity prices volatility (e.g. the Iberian market). Given the competitive framework in which market participants operate, the existence of efficient computational forecasting techniques is a distinctive factor. Based on these forecasts a suitable bidding strategy and an effective generation systems operation planning is achieved, together with an improved installed transmission capacity exploitation, results in maximized profits, all this contributing to a better energy resources utilization. This dissertation presents a new hybrid method for load and electricity prices forecasting, for one day ahead time horizon. The optimization scheme presented in this method, combines the efforts from different techniques, notably artificial neural networks, several optimization algorithms and wavelet transform. The method’s validation was made using different real case studies. The subsequent comparison (accuracy wise) with published results, in reference journals, validated the proposed hybrid method suitability.O processo de liberalização e desregulação dos mercados de energia elétrica, obrigou os diversos participantes a acomodar uma série de desafios, entre os quais: a acumulação considerável de nova capacidade de geração proveniente de origem renovável (fundamentalmente energia eólica), a imprevisibilidade associada a estas novas formas de geração e novos padrões de consumo. Resultando num aumento da volatilidade associada aos preços de energia elétrica (como é exemplo o mercado ibérico). Dado o quadro competitivo em que os agentes de mercado operam, a existência de técnicas computacionais de previsão eficientes, constituí um fator diferenciador. É com base nestas previsões que se definem estratégias de licitação e se efetua um planeamento da operação eficaz dos sistemas de geração que, em conjunto com um melhor aproveitamento da capacidade de transmissão instalada, permite maximizar os lucros, realizando ao mesmo tempo um melhor aproveitamento dos recursos energéticos. Esta dissertação apresenta um novo método híbrido para a previsão da carga e dos preços da energia elétrica, para um horizonte temporal a 24 horas. O método baseia-se num esquema de otimização que reúne os esforços de diferentes técnicas, nomeadamente redes neuronais artificiais, diversos algoritmos de otimização e da transformada de wavelet. A validação do método foi feita em diferentes casos de estudo reais. A posterior comparação com resultados já publicados em revistas de referência, revelou um excelente desempenho do método hibrido proposto

An Evolutionary Computational Approach for the Problem of Unit Commitment and Economic Dispatch in Microgrids under Several Operation Modes

In the last decades, new types of generation technologies have emerged and have been gradually integrated into the existing power systems, moving their classical architectures to distributed systems. Despite the positive features associated to this paradigm, new problems arise such as coordination and uncertainty. In this framework, microgrids constitute an effective solution to deal with the coordination and operation of these distributed energy resources. This paper proposes a Genetic Algorithm (GA) to address the combined problem of Unit Commitment (UC) and Economic Dispatch (ED). With this end, a model of a microgrid is introduced together with all the control variables and physical constraints. To optimally operate the microgrid, three operation modes are introduced. The first two attend to optimize economical and environmental factors, while the last operation mode considers the errors induced by the uncertainties in the demand forecasting. Therefore, it achieves a robust design that guarantees the power supply for different confidence levels. Finally, the algorithm was applied to an example scenario to illustrate its performance. The achieved simulation results demonstrate the validity of the proposed approach.Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades TEC2016-80242-PMinisterio de Economía y Competitividad PCIN-2015-043Universidad de Sevilla Programa propio de I+D+