A review of travel and arrival-time prediction methods on road networks: classification, challenges and opportunities

Transportation plays a key role in today’s economy. Hence, intelligent transportation systems have attracted a great deal of attention among research communities. There are a few review papers in this area. Most of them focus only on travel time prediction. Furthermore, these papers do not include recent research. To address these shortcomings, this study aims to examine the research on the arrival and travel time prediction on road-based on recently published articles. More specifically, this paper aims to (i) offer an extensive literature review of the field, provide a complete taxonomy of the existing methods, identify key challenges and limitations associated with the techniques; (ii) present various evaluation metrics, influence factors, exploited dataset as well as describe essential concepts based on a detailed analysis of the recent literature sources; (iii) provide significant information to researchers and transportation applications developer. As a result of a rigorous selection process and a comprehensive analysis, the findings provide a holistic picture of open issues and several important observations that can be considered as feasible opportunities for future research directions

Regional Data Archiving and Management for Northeast Illinois

This project studies the feasibility and implementation options for establishing a regional data archiving system to help monitor and manage traffic operations and planning for the northeastern Illinois region. It aims to provide a clear guidance to the regional transportation agencies, from both technical and business perspectives, about building such a comprehensive transportation information system. Several implementation alternatives are identified and analyzed. This research is carried out in three phases. In the first phase, existing documents related to ITS deployments in the broader Chicago area are summarized, and a thorough review is conducted of similar systems across the country. Various stakeholders are interviewed to collect information on all data elements that they store, including the format, system, and granularity. Their perception of a data archive system, such as potential benefits and costs, is also surveyed. In the second phase, a conceptual design of the database is developed. This conceptual design includes system architecture, functional modules, user interfaces, and examples of usage. In the last phase, the possible business models for the archive system to sustain itself are reviewed. We estimate initial capital and recurring operational/maintenance costs for the system based on realistic information on the hardware, software, labor, and resource requirements. We also identify possible revenue opportunities. A few implementation options for the archive system are summarized in this report; namely: 1. System hosted by a partnering agency 2. System contracted to a university 3. System contracted to a national laboratory 4. System outsourced to a service provider The costs, advantages and disadvantages for each of these recommended options are also provided.ICT-R27-22published or submitted for publicationis peer reviewe

A Data-driven Methodology Towards Mobility- and Traffic-related Big Spatiotemporal Data Frameworks

Human population is increasing at unprecedented rates, particularly in urban areas. This increase, along with the rise of a more economically empowered middle class, brings new and complex challenges to the mobility of people within urban areas. To tackle such challenges, transportation and mobility authorities and operators are trying to adopt innovative Big Data-driven Mobility- and Traffic-related solutions. Such solutions will help decision-making processes that aim to ease the load on an already overloaded transport infrastructure. The information collected from day-to-day mobility and traffic can help to mitigate some of such mobility challenges in urban areas. Road infrastructure and traffic management operators (RITMOs) face several limitations to effectively extract value from the exponentially growing volumes of mobility- and traffic-related Big Spatiotemporal Data (MobiTrafficBD) that are being acquired and gathered. Research about the topics of Big Data, Spatiotemporal Data and specially MobiTrafficBD is scattered, and existing literature does not offer a concrete, common methodological approach to setup, configure, deploy and use a complete Big Data-based framework to manage the lifecycle of mobility-related spatiotemporal data, mainly focused on geo-referenced time series (GRTS) and spatiotemporal events (ST Events), extract value from it and support decision-making processes of RITMOs. This doctoral thesis proposes a data-driven, prescriptive methodological approach towards the design, development and deployment of MobiTrafficBD Frameworks focused on GRTS and ST Events. Besides a thorough literature review on Spatiotemporal Data, Big Data and the merging of these two fields through MobiTraffiBD, the methodological approach comprises a set of general characteristics, technical requirements, logical components, data flows and technological infrastructure models, as well as guidelines and best practices that aim to guide researchers, practitioners and stakeholders, such as RITMOs, throughout the design, development and deployment phases of any MobiTrafficBD Framework. This work is intended to be a supporting methodological guide, based on widely used Reference Architectures and guidelines for Big Data, but enriched with inherent characteristics and concerns brought about by Big Spatiotemporal Data, such as in the case of GRTS and ST Events. The proposed methodology was evaluated and demonstrated in various real-world use cases that deployed MobiTrafficBD-based Data Management, Processing, Analytics and Visualisation methods, tools and technologies, under the umbrella of several research projects funded by the European Commission and the Portuguese Government.A população humana cresce a um ritmo sem precedentes, particularmente nas áreas urbanas. Este aumento, aliado ao robustecimento de uma classe média com maior poder económico, introduzem novos e complexos desafios na mobilidade de pessoas em áreas urbanas. Para abordar estes desafios, autoridades e operadores de transportes e mobilidade estão a adotar soluções inovadoras no domínio dos sistemas de Dados em Larga Escala nos domínios da Mobilidade e Tráfego. Estas soluções irão apoiar os processos de decisão com o intuito de libertar uma infraestrutura de estradas e transportes já sobrecarregada. A informação colecionada da mobilidade diária e da utilização da infraestrutura de estradas pode ajudar na mitigação de alguns dos desafios da mobilidade urbana. Os operadores de gestão de trânsito e de infraestruturas de estradas (em inglês, road infrastructure and traffic management operators — RITMOs) estão limitados no que toca a extrair valor de um sempre crescente volume de Dados Espaciotemporais em Larga Escala no domínio da Mobilidade e Tráfego (em inglês, Mobility- and Traffic-related Big Spatiotemporal Data —MobiTrafficBD) que estão a ser colecionados e recolhidos. Os trabalhos de investigação sobre os tópicos de Big Data, Dados Espaciotemporais e, especialmente, de MobiTrafficBD, estão dispersos, e a literatura existente não oferece uma metodologia comum e concreta para preparar, configurar, implementar e usar uma plataforma (framework) baseada em tecnologias Big Data para gerir o ciclo de vida de dados espaciotemporais em larga escala, com ênfase nas série temporais georreferenciadas (em inglês, geo-referenced time series — GRTS) e eventos espacio- temporais (em inglês, spatiotemporal events — ST Events), extrair valor destes dados e apoiar os RITMOs nos seus processos de decisão. Esta dissertação doutoral propõe uma metodologia prescritiva orientada a dados, para o design, desenvolvimento e implementação de plataformas de MobiTrafficBD, focadas em GRTS e ST Events. Além de uma revisão de literatura completa nas áreas de Dados Espaciotemporais, Big Data e na junção destas áreas através do conceito de MobiTrafficBD, a metodologia proposta contem um conjunto de características gerais, requisitos técnicos, componentes lógicos, fluxos de dados e modelos de infraestrutura tecnológica, bem como diretrizes e boas práticas para investigadores, profissionais e outras partes interessadas, como RITMOs, com o objetivo de guiá-los pelas fases de design, desenvolvimento e implementação de qualquer pla- taforma MobiTrafficBD. Este trabalho deve ser visto como um guia metodológico de suporte, baseado em Arqui- teturas de Referência e diretrizes amplamente utilizadas, mas enriquecido com as característi- cas e assuntos implícitos relacionados com Dados Espaciotemporais em Larga Escala, como no caso de GRTS e ST Events. A metodologia proposta foi avaliada e demonstrada em vários cenários reais no âmbito de projetos de investigação financiados pela Comissão Europeia e pelo Governo português, nos quais foram implementados métodos, ferramentas e tecnologias nas áreas de Gestão de Dados, Processamento de Dados e Ciência e Visualização de Dados em plataformas MobiTrafficB

Big Data Analytics for Network Level Short-Term Travel Time Prediction with Hierarchical LSTM and Attention

The travel time data collected from widespread traffic monitoring sensors necessitate big data analytic tools for querying, visualization, and identifying meaningful traffic patterns. This paper utilizes a large-scale travel time dataset from Caltrans Performance Measurement System (PeMS) system that is an overflow for traditional data processing and modeling tools. To overcome the challenges of the massive amount of data, the big data analytic engines Apache Spark and Apache MXNet are applied for data wrangling and modeling. Seasonality and autocorrelation were performed to explore and visualize the trend of time-varying data. Inspired by the success of the hierarchical architecture for many Artificial Intelligent (AI) tasks, we consolidate the cell and hidden states passed from low-level to the high-level LSTM with an attention pooling similar to how the human perception system operates. The designed hierarchical LSTM model can consider the dependencies at different time scales to capture the spatial-temporal correlations of network-level travel time. Another self-attention module is then devised to connect LSTM extracted features to the fully connected layers, predicting travel time for all corridors instead of a single link/route. The comparison results show that the Hierarchical LSTM with Attention (HierLSTMat) model gives the best prediction results at 30-minute and 45-min horizons and can successfully forecast unusual congestion. The efficiency gained from big data analytic tools was evaluated by comparing them with popular data science and deep learning frameworks

Interactive, multi-purpose traffic prediction platform using connected vehicles dataset

Traffic congestion is a perennial issue because of the increasing traffic demand yet limited budget for maintaining current transportation infrastructure; let alone expanding them. Many congestion management techniques require timely and accurate traffic estimation and prediction. Examples of such techniques include incident management, real-time routing, and providing accurate trip information based on historical data. In this dissertation, a speech-powered traffic prediction platform is proposed, which deploys a new deep learning algorithm for traffic prediction using Connected Vehicles (CV) data. To speed-up traffic forecasting, a Graph Convolution -- Gated Recurrent Unit (GC-GRU) architecture is proposed and analysis of its performance on tabular data is compared to state-of-the-art models. GC-GRU's Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) was very close to Transformer (3.16 vs 3.12) while achieving the fastest inference time and a six-fold faster training time than Transformer, although Long-Short-Term Memory (LSTM) was the fastest in training. Such improved performance in traffic prediction with a shorter inference time and competitive training time allows the proposed architecture to better cater to real-time applications. This is the first study to demonstrate the advantage of using multiscale approach by combining CV data with conventional sources such as Waze and probe data. CV data was better at detecting short duration, Jam and stand-still incidents and detected them earlier as compared to probe. CV data excelled at detecting minor incidents with a 90 percent detection rate versus 20 percent for probes and detecting them 3 minutes faster. To process the big CV data faster, a new algorithm is proposed to extract the spatial and temporal features from the CSV files into a Multiscale Data Analysis (MDA). The algorithm also leverages Graphics Processing Unit (GPU) using the Nvidia Rapids framework and Dask parallel cluster in Python. The results show a seventy-fold speedup in the data Extract, Transform, Load (ETL) of the CV data for the State of Missouri of an entire day for all the unique CV journeys (reducing the processing time from about 48 hours to 25 minutes). The processed data is then fed into a customized UNet model that learns highlevel traffic features from network-level images to predict large-scale, multi-route, speed and volume of CVs. The accuracy and robustness of the proposed model are evaluated by taking different road types, times of day and image snippets of the developed model and comparable benchmarks. To visually analyze the historical traffic data and the results of the prediction model, an interactive web application powered by speech queries is built to offer accurate and fast insights of traffic performance, and thus, allow for better positioning of traffic control strategies. The product of this dissertation can be seamlessly deployed by transportation authorities to understand and manage congestions in a timely manner.Includes bibliographical references

Real-time Traffic Flow Detection and Prediction Algorithm: Data-Driven Analyses on Spatio-Temporal Traffic Dynamics

Traffic flows over time and space. This spatio-temporal dependency of traffic flow should be considered and used to enhance the performance of real-time traffic detection and prediction capabilities. This characteristic has been widely studied and various applications have been developed and enhanced. During the last decade, great attention has been paid to the increases in the number of traffic data sources, the amount of data, and the data-driven analysis methods. There is still room to improve the traffic detection and prediction capabilities through studies on the emerging resources. To this end, this dissertation presents a series of studies on real-time traffic operation for highway facilities focusing on detection and prediction.First, a spatio-temporal traffic data imputation approach was studied to exploit multi-source data. Different types of kriging methods were evaluated to utilize the spatio-temporal characteristic of traffic data with respect to two factors, including missing patterns and use of secondary data. Second, a short-term traffic speed prediction algorithm was proposed that provides accurate prediction results and is scalable for a large road network analysis in real time. The proposed algorithm consists of a data dimension reduction module and a nonparametric multivariate time-series analysis module. Third, a real-time traffic queue detection algorithm was developed based on traffic fundamentals combined with a statistical pattern recognition procedure. This algorithm was designed to detect dynamic queueing conditions in a spatio-temporal domain rather than detect a queue and congestion directly from traffic flow variables. The algorithm was evaluated by using various real congested traffic flow data. Lastly, gray areas in a decision-making process based on quantifiable measures were addressed to cope with uncertainties in modeling outputs. For intersection control type selection, the gray areas were identified and visualized

A Deep Learning Approach for Spatiotemporal-Data-Driven Traffic State Estimation

The past decade witnessed rapid developments in traffic data sensing technologies in the form of roadside detector hardware, vehicle on-board units, and pedestrian wearable devices. The growing magnitude and complexity of the available traffic data has fueled the demand for data-driven models that can handle large scale inputs. In the recent past, deep-learning-powered algorithms have become the state-of-the-art for various data-driven applications. In this research, three applications of deep learning algorithms for traffic state estimation were investigated. Firstly, network-wide traffic parameters estimation was explored. An attention-based multi-encoder-decoder (Att-MED) neural network architecture was proposed and trained to predict freeway traffic speed up to 60 minutes ahead. Att-MED was designed to encode multiple traffic input sequences: short-term, daily, and weekly cyclic behavior. The proposed network produced an average prediction accuracy of 97.5%, which was superior to the compared baseline models. In addition to improving the output performance, the model\u27s attention weights enhanced the model interpretability. This research additionally explored the utility of low-penetration connected probe-vehicle data for network-wide traffic parameters estimation and prediction on freeways. A novel sequence-to-sequence recurrent graph networks (Seq2Se2 GCN-LSTM) was designed. It was then trained to estimate and predict traffic volume and speed for a 60-minute future time horizon. The proposed methodology generated volume and speed predictions with an average accuracy of 90.5% and 96.6%, respectively, outperforming the investigated baseline models. The proposed method demonstrated robustness against perturbations caused by the probe vehicle fleet\u27s low penetration rate. Secondly, the application of deep learning for road weather detection using roadside CCTVs were investigated. A Vision Transformer (ViT) was trained for simultaneous rain and road surface condition classification. Next, a Spatial Self-Attention (SSA) network was designed to consume the individual detection results, interpret the spatial context, and modify the collective detection output accordingly. The sequential module improved the accuracy of the stand-alone Vision Transformer as measured by the F1-score, raising the total accuracy for both tasks to 96.71% and 98.07%, respectively. Thirdly, a real-time video-based traffic incident detection algorithm was developed to enhance the utilization of the existing roadside CCTV network. The methodology automatically identified the main road regions in video scenes and investigated static vehicles around those areas. The developed algorithm was evaluated using a dataset of roadside videos. The incidents were detected with 85.71% sensitivity and 11.10% false alarm rate with an average delay of 27.53 seconds. In general, the research proposed in this dissertation maximizes the utility of pre-existing traffic infrastructure and emerging probe traffic data. It additionally demonstrated deep learning algorithms\u27 capability of modeling complex spatiotemporal traffic data. This research illustrates that advances in the deep learning field continue to have a high applicability potential in the traffic state estimation domain

Errors and Truths from Transportation Data Aggregation: Some Implications for Research and Practice

Data aggregation, which is a process to combine information by defined groups for statistical analysis, summary, data size reduction, or other purposes, has fundamental challenges, such as loss of the original information. Improper data aggregation, such as sampling bias or incorrect calculation of average, may cause misreading of information. In first chapter, it is revealed that the harmonic mean, which is used to calculate space mean speed for fixed segment, has a sampling bias, i.e., overestimation with small samples. The several impact analyses show that the sampling bias is affected by sampling rate, time interval, segment length, and distribution type. If the data aggregation is properly used, it can help us improve analytical efficiency, encounter some of critical problems, or reveal its casualties and other relevant information. Second and third chapters utilize the aggregation of multi-source data to estimate error distributions of data sources and improve accuracy of their measurements. This is a leaping point of evaluating data sources as the proposed model does not require ground truth data. Second chapter focuses more on the methodology, i.e., a modified Approximate Bayesian Computation, incorporated to construct the error distribution with numerous simulations. In the simulated experiment, the proposed model outperformed the alternative approach, which is a conventional way of evaluating data source that is gathering error information by comparing with ground data source. Several sensitivity analyses explore that how the model performance is affected by sample size, number of data sources, and distribution types. The proposed model in chapter II is limited to one dimensional variable, and then the application is expanded to improving the position and distance measurement of connected vehicle environment. The proposed model can be used to further improve the accuracy of vehicle positioning with other existing methods, such as simultaneous localization and mapping (SLAM). The estimation process can be conducted in real-time operation, and the learning process will try to keep improving the accuracy of estimation. The results show that the proposed model noticeably improves the accuracy of position and distance measurements