A Review of Short Term Load Forecasting using Artificial Neural Network Models

AbstractThe electrical short term load forecasting has been emerged as one of the most essential field of research for efficient and reliable operation of power system in last few decades. It plays very significant role in the field of scheduling, contingency analysis, load flow analysis, planning and maintenance of power system. This paper addresses a review on recently published research work on different variants of artificial neural network in the field of short term load forecasting. In particular, the hybrid networks which is a combination of neural network with stochastic learning techniques such as genetic algorithm(GA), particle swarm optimization (PSO) etc. which has been successfully applied for short term load forecasting (STLF) is discussed thoroughly

Computational intelligence approaches for energy load forecasting in smart energy management grids: state of the art, future challenges, and research directions and Research Directions

Energy management systems are designed to monitor, optimize, and control the smart grid energy market. Demand-side management, considered as an essential part of the energy management system, can enable utility market operators to make better management decisions for energy trading between consumers and the operator. In this system, a priori knowledge about the energy load pattern can help reshape the load and cut the energy demand curve, thus allowing a better management and distribution of the energy in smart grid energy systems. Designing a computationally intelligent load forecasting (ILF) system is often a primary goal of energy demand management. This study explores the state of the art of computationally intelligent (i.e., machine learning) methods that are applied in load forecasting in terms of their classification and evaluation for sustainable operation of the overall energy management system. More than 50 research papers related to the subject identified in existing literature are classified into two categories: namely the single and the hybrid computational intelligence (CI)-based load forecasting technique. The advantages and disadvantages of each individual techniques also discussed to encapsulate them into the perspective into the energy management research. The identified methods have been further investigated by a qualitative analysis based on the accuracy of the prediction, which confirms the dominance of hybrid forecasting methods, which are often applied as metaheurstic algorithms considering the different optimization techniques over single model approaches. Based on extensive surveys, the review paper predicts a continuous future expansion of such literature on different CI approaches and their optimizations with both heuristic and metaheuristic methods used for energy load forecasting and their potential utilization in real-time smart energy management grids to address future challenges in energy demand managemen

Multivariate time series analysis for short-term forecasting of ground level ozone (O3) in Malaysia

The declining of air quality mostly affects the elderly, children, people with asthma, as well as a restriction on outdoor activities. Therefore, there is an importance to provide a statistical modelling to forecast the future values of surface layer ozone (O3) concentration. The objectives of this study are to obtain the best multivariate time series (MTS) model and develop an online air quality forecasting system for O3 concentration in Malaysia. The implementations of MTS model improve the recent statistical model on air quality for short-term prediction. Ten air quality monitoring stations situated at four (4) different types of location were selected in this study. The first type is industrial represent by Pasir Gudang, Perai, and Nilai, second type is urban represent by Kuala Terengganu, Kota Bharu, and Alor Setar. The third is suburban located in Banting, Kangar, and Tanjung Malim, also the only background station at Jerantut. The hourly record data from 2010 to 2017 were used to assess the characteristics and behaviour of O3 concentration. Meanwhile, the monthly record data of O3, particulate matter (PM10), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulphur dioxide (SO2), carbon monoxide (CO), temperature (T), wind speed (WS), and relative humidity (RH) were used to examine the best MTS models. Three methods of MTS namely vector autoregressive (VAR), vector moving average (VMA), and vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA), has been applied in this study. Based on the performance error, the most appropriate MTS model located in Pasir Gudang, Kota Bharu and Kangar is VAR(1), Kuala Terengganu and Alor Setar for VAR(2), Perai and Nilai for VAR(3), Tanjung Malim for VAR(4) and Banting for VAR(5). Only Jerantut obtained the VMA(2) as the best model. The lowest root mean square error (RMSE) and normalized absolute error is 0.0053 and <0.0001 which is for MTS model in Perai and Kuala Terengganu, respectively. Meanwhile, for mean absolute error (MAE), the lowest is in Banting and Jerantut at 0.0013. The online air quality forecasting system for O3 was successfully developed based on the best MTS models to represent each monitoring station

A Review of Considered Factors to Penetrate Renewable Energy Resources in Electrical Power System

As an increasing of load demand, scarcity of fossil fuel and penetration of greenhouse gasses (GHG) effect, utilization of renewable energy resources (RER) such as wind, solar, biomass and tidal are rising drastically. Distributed generation (DG) is a technology giving opportunity to integrate RER into power system network. These integrations are needed optimal long term planning. Those planning, hopefully, can increase reliability of electrical power system network while saving environment from GHG with minimum infestation, operation and maintenance cost. The aim of this paper is reviewing factors should be consider when preparing, operating and evaluating electrical power system with integration of RER. By this planning, it is expected that its integration is effective and efficient in a lifetime of project. Finally, this review can help government, researcher, engineer and private sector to make policies to preparing hybrid power system-DGs. &nbsp; Keywords: Penetration of renewable energy resources, electrical power system, long term planning, distributed generation, policies &nbsp

Electricity Demand Forecasting with Use of Artificial Intelligence: The Case of Gokceada Island

This study reviews a selection of approaches that have used Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), and Multi Linear Regression (MLR) to forecast electricity demand for Gokceada Island. Artificial Neural Networks, Particle Swarm Optimization, and Linear Regression methods are frequently used in the literature. Imports, exports, car numbers, and tourist-passenger numbers are used as based on input values from 2014 to 2020 for Gokceada Island, and the electricity energy demands up to 2040 are estimated as an output value. The results obtained were analyzed using statistical error metrics such as R2, MSE, RMSE, and MAE. The confidence interval analysis of the methods was performed. The correlation matrix is used to show the relationship between the actual value and method outputs and the relationship between independent and dependent variables. It was observed that ANN yields the highest confidence interval of 95% among the method utilized, and the statistical error metrics have the highest correlation for ANN methods between electricity demand output and actual data

Optimisation of stand-alone hydrogen-based renewable energy systems using intelligent techniques

Wind and solar irradiance are promising renewable alternatives to fossil fuels due to their availability and topological advantages for local power generation. However, their intermittent and unpredictable nature limits their integration into energy markets. Fortunately, these disadvantages can be partially overcome by using them in combination with energy storage and back-up units. However, the increased complexity of such systems relative to single energy systems makes an optimal sizing method and appropriate Power Management Strategy (PMS) research priorities. This thesis contributes to the design and integration of stand-alone hybrid renewable energy systems by proposing methodologies to optimise the sizing and operation of hydrogen-based systems. These include using intelligent techniques such as Genetic Algorithm (GA), Particle Swarm Optimisation (PSO) and Neural Networks (NNs). Three design aspects: component sizing, renewables forecasting, and operation coordination, have been investigated. The thesis includes a series of four journal articles. The first article introduced a multi-objective sizing methodology to optimise standalone, hydrogen-based systems using GA. The sizing method was developed to calculate the optimum capacities of system components that underpin appropriate compromise between investment, renewables penetration and environmental footprint. The system reliability was assessed using the Loss of Power Supply Probability (LPSP) for which a novel modification was introduced to account for load losses during transient start-up times for the back-ups. The second article investigated the factors that may influence the accuracy of NNs when applied to forecasting short-term renewable energy. That study involved two NNs: Feedforward, and Radial Basis Function in an investigation of the effect of the type, span and resolution of training data, and the length of training pattern, on shortterm wind speed prediction accuracy. The impact of forecasting error on estimating the available wind power was also evaluated for a commercially available wind turbine. The third article experimentally validated the concept of a NN-based (predictive) PMS. A lab-scale (stand-alone) hybrid energy system, which consisted of: an emulated renewable power source, battery bank, and hydrogen fuel cell coupled with metal hydride storage, satisfied the dynamic load demand. The overall power flow of the constructed system was controlled by a NN-based PMS which was implemented using MATLAB and LabVIEW software. The effects of several control parameters, which are either hardware dependent or affect the predictive algorithm, on system performance was investigated under the predictive PMS, this was benchmarked against a rulebased (non-intelligent) strategy. The fourth article investigated the potential impact of NN-based PMS on the economic and operational characteristics of such hybrid systems. That study benchmarked a rule-based PMS to its (predictive) counterpart. In addition, the effect of real-time fuel cell optimisation using PSO, when applied in the context of predictive PMS was also investigated. The comparative analysis was based on deriving the cost of energy, life cycle emissions, renewables penetration, and duty cycles of fuel cell and electrolyser units. The effects of other parameters such the LPSP level, prediction accuracy were also investigated. The developed techniques outperformed traditional approaches by drawing upon complex artificial intelligence models. The research could underpin cost-effective, reliable power supplies to remote communities as well as reducing the dependence on fossil fuels and the associated environmental footprint