EEMCS final report for the causal modeling for air transport safety (CATS) project

This document reports on the work realized by the DIAM in relation to the completion of the CATS model as presented in Figure 1.6 and tries to explain some of the steps taken for its completion. The project spans over a period of time of three years. Intermediate reports have been presented throughout the project’s progress. These are presented in Appendix 1. In this report the continuous‐discrete distribution‐free BBNs are briefly discussed. The human reliability models developed for dealing with dependence in the model variables are described and the software application UniNet is presente

Reliability assessment based on an adaptive response surface method considering correlation among random variables

Although the Monte-Carlo Simulation (MCS) technique can evaluate a reliability of most structural systems, its processing time equals, approximately, the reciprocal of the probability of failure. While the Stochastic Finite Element (SFE) method could help to solve such a drawback, it is limited to specific computer programs, in which the mean and the coefficient of random variables are estimated by a perturbation, or by a weighted integral method. Therefore, SFE may not be easily applicable when using commercial software or systems that are not prepared with the prerequisite programming. To overcome these limitations, the RSM can be applied, because its accuracy depends on both the distance of axial points, and the linearity of the Limit State Functions (LSFs). The correlation among random variables and the response of a system is evaluated by composing a Bayesian belief nets (BBN). Consequently, the proposed Linear Adaptive Weighted Response Surface Method (LAW-RSM) with BBN modeling produces improved converged reliability indices than conventional RSMs and detail observation for the uncertainties in structural components

A Bayesian network to analyse basketball players’ performances: a multivariate copula-based approach

Statistics in sports plays a key role in predicting winning strategies and providing objective performance indicators. Despite the growing interest in recent years in using statistical methodologies in this field, less emphasis has been given to the multivariate approach. This work aims at using the Bayesian networks to model the joint distribution of a set of indicators of players’ performances in basketball in order to discover the set of their probabilistic relationships as well as the main determinants affecting the player’s winning percentage. From a methodological point of view, the interest is to define a suitable model for non-Gaussian data, relaxing the strong assumption on normal distribution in favour of Gaussian copula. Through the estimated Bayesian network, we discovered many interesting dependence relationships, providing a scientific validation of some known results mainly based on experience. At last, some scenarios of interest have been simulated to understand the main determinants that contribute to rising in the number of won games by a player

An information theoretic approach for knowledge representation using Petri nets

A new hybrid approach for Petri nets (PNs) is proposed in this paper by combining the PNs principles with the foundations of information theory for knowledge representation. The resulting PNs have been named Plausible Petri nets (PPNs) mainly because they can handle the evolution of a discrete event system together with uncertain (plausible) information about the system using states of information. This paper overviews the main concepts of classical PNs and presents a method to allow uncertain information exchange about a state variable within the system dynamics. The resulting methodology is exemplified using an idealized expert system, which illustrates some of the challenges faced in real-world applications of PPNs

A Survey on Deep Learning in Medical Image Analysis

Deep learning algorithms, in particular convolutional networks, have rapidly become a methodology of choice for analyzing medical images. This paper reviews the major deep learning concepts pertinent to medical image analysis and summarizes over 300 contributions to the field, most of which appeared in the last year. We survey the use of deep learning for image classification, object detection, segmentation, registration, and other tasks and provide concise overviews of studies per application area. Open challenges and directions for future research are discussed.Comment: Revised survey includes expanded discussion section and reworked introductory section on common deep architectures. Added missed papers from before Feb 1st 201