클라우드 컴퓨팅 환경기반에서 수치 모델링과 머신러닝을 통한 지구과학 자료생성에 관한 연구

학위논문(박사) -- 서울대학교대학원 : 자연과학대학 지구환경과학부, 2022. 8. 조양기.To investigate changes and phenomena on Earth, many scientists use high-resolution-model results based on numerical models or develop and utilize machine learning-based prediction models with observed data. As information technology advances, there is a need for a practical methodology for generating local and global high-resolution numerical modeling and machine learning-based earth science data. This study recommends data generation and processing using high-resolution numerical models of earth science and machine learning-based prediction models in a cloud environment. To verify the reproducibility and portability of high-resolution numerical ocean model implementation on cloud computing, I simulated and analyzed the performance of a numerical ocean model at various resolutions in the model domain, including the Northwest Pacific Ocean, the East Sea, and the Yellow Sea. With the containerization method, it was possible to respond to changes in various infrastructure environments and achieve computational reproducibility effectively. The data augmentation of subsurface temperature data was performed using generative models to prepare large datasets for model training to predict the vertical temperature distribution in the ocean. To train the prediction model, data augmentation was performed using a generative model for observed data that is relatively insufficient compared to satellite dataset. In addition to observation data, HYCOM datasets were used for performance comparison, and the data distribution of augmented data was similar to the input data distribution. The ensemble method, which combines stand-alone predictive models, improved the performance of the predictive model compared to that of the model based on the existing observed data. Large amounts of computational resources were required for data synthesis, and the synthesis was performed in a cloud-based graphics processing unit environment. High-resolution numerical ocean model simulation, predictive model development, and the data generation method can improve predictive capabilities in the field of ocean science. The numerical modeling and generative models based on cloud computing used in this study can be broadly applied to various fields of earth science.지구의 변화와 현상을 연구하기 위해 많은 과학자들은 수치 모델을 기반으로 한 고해상도 모델 결과를 사용하거나 관측된 데이터로 머신러닝 기반 예측 모델을 개발하고 활용한다. 정보기술이 발전함에 따라 지역 및 전 지구적인 고해상도 수치 모델링과 머신러닝 기반 지구과학 데이터 생성을 위한 실용적인 방법론이 필요하다. 본 연구는 지구과학의 고해상도 수치 모델과 머신러닝 기반 예측 모델을 기반으로 한 데이터 생성 및 처리가 클라우드 환경에서 효과적으로 구현될 수 있음을 제안한다. 클라우드 컴퓨팅에서 고해상도 수치 해양 모델 구현의 재현성과 이식성을 검증하기 위해 북서태평양, 동해, 황해 등 모델 영역의 다양한 해상도에서 수치 해양 모델의 성능을 시뮬레이션하고 분석하였다. 컨테이너화 방식을 통해 다양한 인프라 환경 변화에 대응하고 계산 재현성을 효과적으로 확보할 수 있었다. 머신러닝 기반 데이터 생성의 적용을 검증하기 위해 생성 모델을 이용한 표층 이하 온도 데이터의 데이터 증강을 실행하여 해양의 수직 온도 분포를 예측하는 모델 훈련을 위한 대용량 데이터 세트를 준비했다. 예측모델 훈련을 위해 위성 데이터에 비해 상대적으로 부족한 관측 데이터에 대해서 생성 모델을 사용하여 데이터 증강을 수행하였다. 모델의 예측성능 비교에는 관측 데이터 외에도 HYCOM 데이터 세트를 사용하였으며, 증강 데이터의 데이터 분포는 입력 데이터 분포와 유사함을 확인하였다. 독립형 예측 모델을 결합한 앙상블 방식은 기존 관측 데이터를 기반으로 하는 예측 모델의 성능에 비해 향상되었다. 데이터합성을 위해 많은 양의 계산 자원이 필요했으며, 데이터 합성은 클라우드 기반 GPU 환경에서 수행되었다. 고해상도 수치 해양 모델 시뮬레이션, 예측 모델 개발, 데이터 생성 방법은 해양 과학 분야에서 예측 능력을 향상시킬 수 있다. 본 연구에서 사용된 클라우드 컴퓨팅 기반의 수치 모델링 및 생성 모델은 지구 과학의 다양한 분야에 광범위하게 적용될 수 있다.1. General Introduction 1 2. Performance of numerical ocean modeling on cloud computing 6 2.1. Introduction 6 2.2. Cloud Computing 9 2.2.1. Cloud computing overview 9 2.2.2. Commercial cloud computing services 12 2.3. Numerical model for performance analysis of commercial clouds 15 2.3.1. High Performance Linpack Benchmark 15 2.3.2. Benchmark Sustainable Memory Bandwidth and Memory Latency 16 2.3.3. Numerical Ocean Model 16 2.3.4. Deployment of Numerical Ocean Model and Benchmark Packages on Cloud Clusters 19 2.4. Simulation results 21 2.4.1. Benchmark simulation 21 2.4.2. Ocean model simulation 24 2.5. Analysis of ROMS performance on commercial clouds 26 2.5.1. Performance of ROMS according to H/W resources 26 2.5.2. Performance of ROMS according to grid size 34 2.6. Summary 41 3. Reproducibility of numerical ocean model on the cloud computing 44 3.1. Introduction 44 3.2. Containerization of numerical ocean model 47 3.2.1. Container virtualization 47 3.2.2. Container-based architecture for HPC 49 3.2.3. Container-based architecture for hybrid cloud 53 3.3. Materials and Methods 55 3.3.1. Comparison of traditional and container based HPC cluster workflows 55 3.3.2. Model domain and datasets for numerical simulation 57 3.3.3. Building the container image and registration in the repository 59 3.3.4. Configuring a numeric model execution cluster 64 3.4. Results and Discussion 74 3.4.1. Reproducibility 74 3.4.2. Portability and Performance 76 3.5. Conclusions 81 4. Generative models for the prediction of ocean temperature profile 84 4.1. Introduction 84 4.2. Materials and Methods 87 4.2.1. Model domain and datasets for predicting the subsurface temperature 87 4.2.2. Model architecture for predicting the subsurface temperature 90 4.2.3. Neural network generative models 91 4.2.4. Prediction Models 97 4.2.5. Accuracy 103 4.3. Results and Discussion 104 4.3.1. Data Generation 104 4.3.2. Ensemble Prediction 109 4.3.3. Limitations of this study and future works 111 4.4. Conclusion 111 5. Summary and conclusion 114 6. References 118 7. Abstract (in Korean) 140박

Damage identification in structural health monitoring: a brief review from its implementation to the Use of data-driven applications

The damage identification process provides relevant information about the current state of a structure under inspection, and it can be approached from two different points of view. The first approach uses data-driven algorithms, which are usually associated with the collection of data using sensors. Data are subsequently processed and analyzed. The second approach uses models to analyze information about the structure. In the latter case, the overall performance of the approach is associated with the accuracy of the model and the information that is used to define it. Although both approaches are widely used, data-driven algorithms are preferred in most cases because they afford the ability to analyze data acquired from sensors and to provide a real-time solution for decision making; however, these approaches involve high-performance processors due to the high computational cost. As a contribution to the researchers working with data-driven algorithms and applications, this work presents a brief review of data-driven algorithms for damage identification in structural health-monitoring applications. This review covers damage detection, localization, classification, extension, and prognosis, as well as the development of smart structures. The literature is systematically reviewed according to the natural steps of a structural health-monitoring system. This review also includes information on the types of sensors used as well as on the development of data-driven algorithms for damage identification.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Seasonal predictions of energy-relevant climate variables through Euro-Atlantic Teleconnections

The goal of this analysis is the better understanding of how the large-scale atmospheric patterns affect the renewable resources over Europe and to investigate to what extent the dynamical predictions of the large-scale variability might be used to formulate empirical prediction of local climate conditions (relevant for the energy sector). The increasing integration of renewable energy into the power mix is making the electricity supply more vulnerable to climate variability, therefore increasing the need for skillful weather and climate predictions. Forecasting seasonal variations of energy relevant climate variables can help the transition to renewable energy and the entire energy industry to make better informed decision-making. At seasonal timescale climate variability can be described by recurring and persistent, large-scale patterns of atmospheric pressure and circulation anomalies that interest vast geographical areas. The main patterns of the North Atlantic region (Euro Atlantic Teleconnections, EATCs) drive variations in the surface climate over Europe. We analyze reanalysis dataset ERA5 and the multi-system seasonal forecast service provided by Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). We found that the observed EATC indices are strongly correlated with surface variables. However, the observed relationship between EATC patterns and surface impacts is not accurately reproduced by seasonal prediction systems. This opens the door to employ hybrid dynamical-statistical methods. The idea consists in combining the dynamical seasonal predictions of EATC indices with the observed relationship between EATCs and surface variables. We reconstructed the surface anomalies for multiple seasonal prediction systems and benchmarked these hybrid forecasts with the direct variable forecasts from the systems and also with the climatology. The analysis suggests that hybrid methodology can bring several improvements to the predictions of energy relevant Essential Climate Variables.This work was supported by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme [Grant Numbers. No 776787, H2020 S2S4E] and by the National Italian project PAR 2019–2021 1.8 ‘Energia dal Mare’.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Integrating Deep Learning and Hydrodynamic Modeling to Improve the Great Lakes Forecast

The Laurentian Great Lakes, one of the world’s largest surface freshwater systems, pose a modeling challenge in seasonal forecast and climate projection. While physics-based hydrodynamic modeling is a fundamental approach, improving the forecast accuracy remains critical. In recent years, machine learning (ML) has quickly emerged in geoscience applications, but its application to the Great Lakes hydrodynamic prediction is still in its early stages. This work is the first one to explore a deep learning approach to predicting spatiotemporal distributions of the lake surface temperature (LST) in the Great Lakes. Our study shows that the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network, trained with the limited data from hypothetical monitoring networks, can provide consistent and robust performance. The LSTM prediction captured the LST spatiotemporal variabilities across the five Great Lakes well, suggesting an effective and efficient way for monitoring network design in assisting the ML-based forecast. Furthermore, we employed an explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) technique named SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to uncover how the features impact the LSTM prediction. Our XAI analysis shows air temperature is the most influential feature for predicting LST in the trained LSTM. The relatively large bias in the LSTM prediction during the spring and fall was associated with substantial heterogeneity of air temperature during the two seasons. In contrast, the physics-based hydrodynamic model performed better in spring and fall yet exhibited relatively large biases during the summer stratification period. Finally, we developed a statistical integration of the hydrodynamic modeling and deep learning results based on the Best Linear Unbiased Estimator (BLUE). The integration further enhanced prediction accuracy, suggesting its potential for next-generation Great Lakes forecast systems

Integrating Deep Learning and Hydrodynamic Modeling to Improve the Great Lakes Forecast

The Laurentian Great Lakes, one of the world’s largest surface freshwater systems, pose a modeling challenge in seasonal forecast and climate projection. While physics-based hydrodynamic modeling is a fundamental approach, improving the forecast accuracy remains critical. In recent years, machine learning (ML) has quickly emerged in geoscience applications, but its application to the Great Lakes hydrodynamic prediction is still in its early stages. This work is the first one to explore a deep learning approach to predicting spatiotemporal distributions of the lake surface temperature (LST) in the Great Lakes. Our study shows that the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network, trained with the limited data from hypothetical monitoring networks, can provide consistent and robust performance. The LSTM prediction captured the LST spatiotemporal variabilities across the five Great Lakes well, suggesting an effective and efficient way for monitoring network design in assisting the ML-based forecast. Furthermore, we employed an explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) technique named SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to uncover how the features impact the LSTM prediction. Our XAI analysis shows air temperature is the most influential feature for predicting LST in the trained LSTM. The relatively large bias in the LSTM prediction during the spring and fall was associated with substantial heterogeneity of air temperature during the two seasons. In contrast, the physics-based hydrodynamic model performed better in spring and fall yet exhibited relatively large biases during the summer stratification period. Finally, we developed a statistical integration of the hydrodynamic modeling and deep learning results based on the Best Linear Unbiased Estimator (BLUE). The integration further enhanced prediction accuracy, suggesting its potential for next-generation Great Lakes forecast systems

Review and assessment of latent and sensible heat flux accuracy over the global oceans

For over a decade, several research groups have been developing air-sea heat flux information over the global ocean, including latent (LHF) and sensible (SHF) heat fluxes over the global ocean. This paper aims to provide new insight into the quality and error characteristics of turbulent heat flux estimates at various spatial and temporal scales (from daily upwards). The study is performed within the European Space Agency (ESA) Ocean Heat Flux (OHF) project. One of the main objectives of the OHF project is to meet the recommendations and requirements expressed by various international programs such as the World Research Climate Program (WCRP) and Climate and Ocean Variability, Predictability, and Change (CLIVAR), recognizing the need for better characterization of existing flux errors with respect to the input bulk variables (e.g. surface wind, air and sea surface temperatures, air and surface specific humidities), and to the atmospheric and oceanic conditions (e.g. wind conditions and sea state). The analysis is based on the use of daily averaged LHF and SHF and the asso- ciated bulk variables derived from major satellite-based and atmospheric reanalysis products. Inter-comparisons of heat flux products indicate that all of them exhibit similar space and time patterns. However, they also reveal significant differences in magnitude in some specific regions such as the western ocean boundaries during the Northern Hemisphere winter season, and the high southern latitudes. The differences tend to be closely related to large differences in surface wind speed and/or specific air humidity (for LHF) and to air and sea temperature differences (for SHF). Further quality investigations are performed through comprehensive comparisons with daily-averaged LHF and SHF estimated from moorings. The resulting statistics are used to assess the error of each OHF product. Consideration of error correlation between products and observations (e.g., by their assimilation) is also given. This reveals generally high noise variance in all products and a weak signal in common with in situ observations, with some products only slightly better than others. The OHF LHF and SHF products, and their associated error characteristics, are used to compute daily OHF multiproduct-ensemble (OHF/MPE) estimates of LHF and SHF over the ice-free global ocean on a 0.25° × 0.25° grid. The accuracy of this heat multiproduct, determined from comparisons with mooring data, is greater than for any individual product. It is used as a reference for the anomaly characterization of each individual OHF product

Senior Thesis ST 2011-02

Agriculture in the Arctic is often limited by the low receipt of heat energy, which is often measured in growing degree days (GDD). With the advent of increasingly powerful climate modeling, projection and downscaling techniques, it is becoming possible to examine future climates in high resolution. Recent availability in Alaska has prompted interest in examining the distribution of current and the potential future of local agriculture. The goal of this study was to utilize Scenarios Network for Alaska Planning (SNAP) downscaled, ensemble projections to examine this in terms of GDDs in the Fairbanks North Star Borough of Alaska. Historic and projected monthly mean temperatures were utilized to calculate GDDs and then map the borough at a 4 km2 scale. Additionally, local agriculturalists were interviewed in order to put these theoretical calculations into context. Ultimately, projections of the examined agricultural locations showed an average of a 2% increase in GDD per decade and a 26% increase in GDDs from 1949 to 2099. This project indicated that the North Star Borough will receive increased heat energy due to climate change over the next century that may further enable increased yields and varieties of crops

Feasibility study on manganese nodules recovery in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone

The sea occupies three quarters of the area on the earth and provides various kinds of resources to mankind in the form of minerals, food, medicines and even energy. “Seabed exploitation” specifically deals with recovery of the resources that are found on the seabed, in the form of solids, liquids and gasses (methane hydrates, oil and natural gas). The resources are abundant; nevertheless the recovery process from the seabed, poses various challenges to mankind. This study starts with a review on three types of resources: polymetallic manganese nodules, polymetallic manganese crusts and massive sulphides deposits. Each of them are rich in minerals, such as manganese, cobalt, nickel, copper and some rare earth elements. They are found at many locations in the deep seas and are potentially a big source of minerals. No commercial seabed mining activity has been accomplished to date due to the great complexities in recovery. This book describes the various challenges associated with a potential underwater mineral recovery operation, reviews and analyses the existing recovery techniques, and provides an innovative engineering system. It further identifies the associated risks and a suitable business model.Chapter 1 presents a brief background about the past and present industrial trends of seabed mining. A description of the sea, seabed and the three types of seabed mineral resources are also included. A section on motivations for deep sea mining follows which also compares the latter with terrestrial mining.Chapter 2 deals with the decision making process, including a market analysis, for selecting manganese nodules as the resource of interest. This is followed by a case study specific to the location of interest: West COMRA in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone. Specific site location is determined in order to estimate commercial risk, environmental impact assessment and logistic challenge.Chapter 3 lists the existing techniques for nodule recovery operation. The study identifies the main components of a nodules recovery system, and organizes them into: collector, propulsion and vertical transport systems.Chapter 4 discusses various challenges posed by manganese nodules recovery, in terms of the engineering and environment. The geo-political and legal-social issues have also been considered. This chapter plays an important role in defining the proposed engineering system, as addressing the identified challenges will better shape the proposed solution.Chapter 5 proposes an engineering system, by considering the key components in greater details. An innovative component, the black box is introduced, which is intended to be an environmentally-friendly solution for manganese nodules recovery. Other auxiliary components, such as the mother ship and metallurgical processing, are briefly included. A brief power supply analysis is also provided.Chapter 6 assesses the associated risks, which are divided into sections namely commercial viability, logistic challenges, environmental impact assessment and safety assessment. The feasibility of the proposed solution is also dealt with.Chapter 7 provides a business model for the proposed engineering system. Potential customers are identified, value proposition is determined, costumer relation is also suggested. Public awareness is then discussed and finally a SWOT analysis is presented. This business model serves as an important bridge to reach both industry and research institutes.Finally, Chapter 8 provides some conclusions and recommendation for future work

On the Structure of the Lower Troposphere in the Summertime Stratocumulus Regime of the Northeast Pacific

Data collected in situ as part of the second field study of the Dynamics and Chemistry of Marine Stratocumulus field program are used to evaluate the state of the atmosphere in the region of field operations near 30°N, 120°W during July 2001, as well as its representation by a variety of routinely available data. The routine data include both the 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-40) and NCEP–NCAR reanalyses, forecasts from their respective forecast systems (the Integrated and Global Forecast Systems), the 30-km archive from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP), the Quick Scatterometer surface winds, and remotely sensed fields derived from radiances measured by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI), the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit, and the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer. The analysis shows that outside of the boundary layer the state of the lower troposphere is reasonably represented by the reanalysis and forecast products, with the caveat of a slight warm bias at 850 hPa in the NCEP–NCAR products. Within the planetary boundary layer (PBL) the agreement is not as good: both the boundary layer depth and cloud amount are underpredicted, and the boundary layer temperature correlates poorly with the available data, which may be related to a poor representation of SSTs in this region of persistent cloud cover. ERA-40 also suffers from persistently weak zonal winds within the PBL. Among the satellite records the ISCCP data are found to be especially valuable, evincing skill in both predicting boundary layer depth (from cloud-top temperatures and TMI surface temperatures) and cloud liquid water paths (from cloud optical depths). An analysis of interannual variability (among Julys) based on ERA-40 and the 1983–2001 ISCCP record suggests that thermodynamic quantities show similar interannual and synoptic variability, principally concentrated just above the PBL, while dynamic quantities vary much more on synoptic time scales. Furthermore, the analysis suggests that the correlation between stratocumulus cloud amount and lower-tropospheric stability exhibits considerable spatial structure and is less pronounced than previously thought

Spatial-Temporal Data Mining for Ocean Science: Data, Methodologies, and Opportunities

With the increasing amount of spatial-temporal~(ST) ocean data, numerous spatial-temporal data mining (STDM) studies have been conducted to address various oceanic issues, e.g., climate forecasting and disaster warning. Compared with typical ST data (e.g., traffic data), ST ocean data is more complicated with some unique characteristics, e.g., diverse regionality and high sparsity. These characteristics make it difficult to design and train STDM models. Unfortunately, an overview of these studies is still missing, hindering computer scientists to identify the research issues in ocean while discouraging researchers in ocean science from applying advanced STDM techniques. To remedy this situation, we provide a comprehensive survey to summarize existing STDM studies in ocean. Concretely, we first summarize the widely-used ST ocean datasets and identify their unique characteristics. Then, typical ST ocean data quality enhancement techniques are discussed. Next, we classify existing STDM studies for ocean into four types of tasks, i.e., prediction, event detection, pattern mining, and anomaly detection, and elaborate the techniques for these tasks. Finally, promising research opportunities are highlighted. This survey will help scientists from the fields of both computer science and ocean science have a better understanding of the fundamental concepts, key techniques, and open challenges of STDM in ocean