Ensemble Kalman filter for GAN-ConvLSTM based long lead-time forecasting

Data-driven machine learning techniques have been increasingly utilized for accelerating nonlinear dynamic system prediction. However, machine learning-based models for long lead-time forecasts remain a significant challenge due to the accumulation of uncertainty along the time dimension in online deployment. To tackle this issue, the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) has been introduced to machine learning-based long-term forecast models to reduce the uncertainty of long lead-time forecasts of chaotic dynamic systems. Both the deep convolutional generative adversarial network (DCGAN) and convolutional long short term memory (ConvLSTM) are used for learning the complex nonlinear relationships between the past and future states of dynamic systems. Using an iterative Multi-Input Multi-Output (MIMO) algorithm, the two-hybrid forecast models (DCGAN-EnKF and ConvLSTM-EnKF) are able to yield long lead-time forecasts of dynamic states. The performance of the hybrid models has been demonstrated by one-level and two-level Lorenz 96 models. Our results show that the use of EnKF in ConvLSTM and DCGAN models successfully corrects online model errors and significantly improves the real-time forecasting of dynamic systems for a long lead-time

Combining Static and Dynamic Features for Multivariate Sequence Classification

Model precision in a classification task is highly dependent on the feature space that is used to train the model. Moreover, whether the features are sequential or static will dictate which classification method can be applied as most of the machine learning algorithms are designed to deal with either one or another type of data. In real-life scenarios, however, it is often the case that both static and dynamic features are present, or can be extracted from the data. In this work, we demonstrate how generative models such as Hidden Markov Models (HMM) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) artificial neural networks can be used to extract temporal information from the dynamic data. We explore how the extracted information can be combined with the static features in order to improve the classification performance. We evaluate the existing techniques and suggest a hybrid approach, which outperforms other methods on several public datasets.Comment: Presented at IEEE DSAA 201

Metaheuristic design of feedforward neural networks: a review of two decades of research

Over the past two decades, the feedforward neural network (FNN) optimization has been a key interest among the researchers and practitioners of multiple disciplines. The FNN optimization is often viewed from the various perspectives: the optimization of weights, network architecture, activation nodes, learning parameters, learning environment, etc. Researchers adopted such different viewpoints mainly to improve the FNN's generalization ability. The gradient-descent algorithm such as backpropagation has been widely applied to optimize the FNNs. Its success is evident from the FNN's application to numerous real-world problems. However, due to the limitations of the gradient-based optimization methods, the metaheuristic algorithms including the evolutionary algorithms, swarm intelligence, etc., are still being widely explored by the researchers aiming to obtain generalized FNN for a given problem. This article attempts to summarize a broad spectrum of FNN optimization methodologies including conventional and metaheuristic approaches. This article also tries to connect various research directions emerged out of the FNN optimization practices, such as evolving neural network (NN), cooperative coevolution NN, complex-valued NN, deep learning, extreme learning machine, quantum NN, etc. Additionally, it provides interesting research challenges for future research to cope-up with the present information processing era

Neurons and symbols: a manifesto

We discuss the purpose of neural-symbolic integration including its principles, mechanisms and applications. We outline a cognitive computational model for neural-symbolic integration, position the model in the broader context of multi-agent systems, machine learning and automated reasoning, and list some of the challenges for the area of neural-symbolic computation to achieve the promise of effective integration of robust learning and expressive reasoning under uncertainty

Adaptive Online Sequential ELM for Concept Drift Tackling

A machine learning method needs to adapt to over time changes in the environment. Such changes are known as concept drift. In this paper, we propose concept drift tackling method as an enhancement of Online Sequential Extreme Learning Machine (OS-ELM) and Constructive Enhancement OS-ELM (CEOS-ELM) by adding adaptive capability for classification and regression problem. The scheme is named as adaptive OS-ELM (AOS-ELM). It is a single classifier scheme that works well to handle real drift, virtual drift, and hybrid drift. The AOS-ELM also works well for sudden drift and recurrent context change type. The scheme is a simple unified method implemented in simple lines of code. We evaluated AOS-ELM on regression and classification problem by using concept drift public data set (SEA and STAGGER) and other public data sets such as MNIST, USPS, and IDS. Experiments show that our method gives higher kappa value compared to the multiclassifier ELM ensemble. Even though AOS-ELM in practice does not need hidden nodes increase, we address some issues related to the increasing of the hidden nodes such as error condition and rank values. We propose taking the rank of the pseudoinverse matrix as an indicator parameter to detect underfitting condition.Comment: Hindawi Publishing. Computational Intelligence and Neuroscience Volume 2016 (2016), Article ID 8091267, 17 pages Received 29 January 2016, Accepted 17 May 2016. Special Issue on "Advances in Neural Networks and Hybrid-Metaheuristics: Theory, Algorithms, and Novel Engineering Applications". Academic Editor: Stefan Hauf