Crowd simulation and visualization

Large-scale simulation and visualization are essential topics in areas as different as sociology, physics, urbanism, training, entertainment among others. This kind of systems requires a vast computational power and memory resources commonly available in High Performance Computing HPC platforms. Currently, the most potent clusters have heterogeneous architectures with hundreds of thousands and even millions of cores. The industry trends inferred that exascale clusters would have thousands of millions. The technical challenges for simulation and visualization process in the exascale era are intertwined with difficulties in other areas of research, including storage, communication, programming models and hardware. For this reason, it is necessary prototyping, testing, and deployment a variety of approaches to address the technical challenges identified and evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of each proposed solution. The focus of this research is interactive large-scale crowd simulation and visualization. To exploit to the maximum the capacity of the current HPC infrastructure and be prepared to take advantage of the next generation. The project develops a new approach to scale crowd simulation and visualization on heterogeneous computing cluster using a task-based technique. Its main characteristic is hardware agnostic. It abstracts the difficulties that imply the use of heterogeneous architectures like memory management, scheduling, communications, and synchronization — facilitating development, maintenance, and scalability. With the goal of flexibility and take advantage of computing resources as best as possible, the project explores different configurations to connect the simulation with the visualization engine. This kind of system has an essential use in emergencies. Therefore, urban scenes were implemented as realistic as possible; in this way, users will be ready to face real events. Path planning for large-scale crowds is a challenge to solve, due to the inherent dynamism in the scenes and vast search space. A new path-finding algorithm was developed. It has a hierarchical approach which offers different advantages: it divides the search space reducing the problem complexity, it can obtain a partial path instead of wait for the complete one, which allows a character to start moving and compute the rest asynchronously. It can reprocess only a part if necessary with different levels of abstraction. A case study is presented for a crowd simulation in urban scenarios. Geolocated data are used, they were produced by mobile devices to predict individual and crowd behavior and detect abnormal situations in the presence of specific events. It was also address the challenge of combining all these individual’s location with a 3D rendering of the urban environment. The data processing and simulation approach are computationally expensive and time-critical, it relies thus on a hybrid Cloud-HPC architecture to produce an efficient solution. Within the project, new models of behavior based on data analytics were developed. It was developed the infrastructure to be able to consult various data sources such as social networks, government agencies or transport companies such as Uber. Every time there is more geolocation data available and better computation resources which allow performing analysis of greater depth, this lays the foundations to improve the simulation models of current crowds. The use of simulations and their visualization allows to observe and organize the crowds in real time. The analysis before, during and after daily mass events can reduce the risks and associated logistics costs.La simulación y visualización a gran escala son temas esenciales en áreas tan diferentes como la sociología, la física, el urbanismo, la capacitación, el entretenimiento, entre otros. Este tipo de sistemas requiere una gran capacidad de cómputo y recursos de memoria comúnmente disponibles en las plataformas de computo de alto rendimiento. Actualmente, los equipos más potentes tienen arquitecturas heterogéneas con cientos de miles e incluso millones de núcleos. Las tendencias de la industria infieren que los equipos en la era exascale tendran miles de millones. Los desafíos técnicos en el proceso de simulación y visualización en la era exascale se entrelazan con dificultades en otras áreas de investigación, incluidos almacenamiento, comunicación, modelos de programación y hardware. Por esta razón, es necesario crear prototipos, probar y desplegar una variedad de enfoques para abordar los desafíos técnicos identificados y evaluar las ventajas y desventajas de cada solución propuesta. El foco de esta investigación es la visualización y simulación interactiva de multitudes a gran escala. Aprovechar al máximo la capacidad de la infraestructura actual y estar preparado para aprovechar la próxima generación. El proyecto desarrolla un nuevo enfoque para escalar la simulación y visualización de multitudes en un clúster de computo heterogéneo utilizando una técnica basada en tareas. Su principal característica es que es hardware agnóstico. Abstrae las dificultades que implican el uso de arquitecturas heterogéneas como la administración de memoria, las comunicaciones y la sincronización, lo que facilita el desarrollo, el mantenimiento y la escalabilidad. Con el objetivo de flexibilizar y aprovechar los recursos informáticos lo mejor posible, el proyecto explora diferentes configuraciones para conectar la simulación con el motor de visualización. Este tipo de sistemas tienen un uso esencial en emergencias. Por lo tanto, se implementaron escenas urbanas lo más realistas posible, de esta manera los usuarios estarán listos para enfrentar eventos reales. La planificación de caminos para multitudes a gran escala es un desafío a resolver, debido al dinamismo inherente en las escenas y el vasto espacio de búsqueda. Se desarrolló un nuevo algoritmo de búsqueda de caminos. Tiene un enfoque jerárquico que ofrece diferentes ventajas: divide el espacio de búsqueda reduciendo la complejidad del problema, puede obtener una ruta parcial en lugar de esperar a la completa, lo que permite que un personaje comience a moverse y calcule el resto de forma asíncrona, puede reprocesar solo una parte si es necesario con diferentes niveles de abstracción. Se presenta un caso de estudio para una simulación de multitud en escenarios urbanos. Se utilizan datos geolocalizados producidos por dispositivos móviles para predecir el comportamiento individual y público y detectar situaciones anormales en presencia de eventos específicos. También se aborda el desafío de combinar la ubicación de todos estos individuos con una representación 3D del entorno urbano. Dentro del proyecto, se desarrollaron nuevos modelos de comportamiento basados ¿¿en el análisis de datos. Se creo la infraestructura para poder consultar varias fuentes de datos como redes sociales, agencias gubernamentales o empresas de transporte como Uber. Cada vez hay más datos de geolocalización disponibles y mejores recursos de cómputo que permiten realizar un análisis de mayor profundidad, esto sienta las bases para mejorar los modelos de simulación de las multitudes actuales. El uso de simulaciones y su visualización permite observar y organizar las multitudes en tiempo real. El análisis antes, durante y después de eventos multitudinarios diarios puede reducir los riesgos y los costos logísticos asociadosPostprint (published version

Games for a new climate: experiencing the complexity of future risks

This repository item contains a single issue of the Pardee Center Task Force Reports, a publication series that began publishing in 2009 by the Boston University Frederick S. Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer-Range Future.This report is a product of the Pardee Center Task Force on Games for a New Climate, which met at Pardee House at Boston University in March 2012. The 12-member Task Force was convened on behalf of the Pardee Center by Visiting Research Fellow Pablo Suarez in collaboration with the Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre to “explore the potential of participatory, game-based processes for accelerating learning, fostering dialogue, and promoting action through real-world decisions affecting the longer-range future, with an emphasis on humanitarian and development work, particularly involving climate risk management.” Compiled and edited by Janot Mendler de Suarez, Pablo Suarez and Carina Bachofen, the report includes contributions from all of the Task Force members and provides a detailed exploration of the current and potential ways in which games can be used to help a variety of stakeholders – including subsistence farmers, humanitarian workers, scientists, policymakers, and donors – to both understand and experience the difficulty and risks involved related to decision-making in a complex and uncertain future. The dozen Task Force experts who contributed to the report represent academic institutions, humanitarian organization, other non-governmental organizations, and game design firms with backgrounds ranging from climate modeling and anthropology to community-level disaster management and national and global policymaking as well as game design.Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centr

Paths to Innovation in Supply Chains: The Landscape of Future Research

This chapter presents a Strategic Research and Innovation Agenda for supply chain and it is the result of an intensive work jointly performed involving a wide network of stakeholders from discrete manufacturing, process industry and logistics sector to put forward a vision to strengthen European Supply Chains for the next decade. The work is based on matching visions from literature and from experts with several iterations between desk research and workshops, focus groups and interviews. The result is a detailed analysis of the supply chain strategies identified as most relevant for the next years and definition of the related research and innovation topics as future developments and steps for the full implementation of the strategies, thus proposing innovative and cutting-edge actions to be implemented based on technological development and organisational change

Assessing vulnerability and modelling assistance: using demographic indicators of vulnerability and agent-based modelling to explore emergency flooding relief response

Flooding is a significant concern for much of the UK and is recognised as a primary threat by most local councils. Those in society most often deemed vulnerable: the elderly, poor or sick, for example, often see their level of vulnerability increase during hazard events. A greater knowledge of the spatial distribution of vulnerability within communities is key to understanding how a population may be impacted by a hazard event. Vulnerability indices are regularly used – in conjunction with needs assessments and on-the-ground research – to target service provision and justify resource allocation. Past work on measuring and mapping vulnerability has been limited by a focus on income-related indicators, a lack of consideration of accessibility, and the reliance on proprietary data. The Open Source Vulnerability Index (OSVI) encompasses an extensive range of vulnerability indicators supported by the wider literature and expert validation and provides data at a sufficiently fine resolution that can identify vulnerable populations. Findings of the OSVI demonstrate the potential cascading impact of a flood hazard as it impacts an already vulnerable population: exacerbating pre-existing vulnerabilities, limiting capabilities and restricting accessibility and access to key services. The OSVI feeds into an agent-based model (ABM) that explores the capacity of the British Red Cross (BRC) to distribute relief during flood emergencies using strategies based upon the OSVI. A participatory modelling approach was utilised whereby the BRC were included in all aspects of the model development. The major contribution of this work is the novel synthesis of demographics analysis, vulnerability mapping and geospatial simulation. The project contributes to the growing understanding of vulnerability and response management within the NGO sector. It is hoped that the index and model produced will allow responder organisations to run simulations of similar emergency events and adjust strategic response plans accordingly

Predictive analytics in humanitarian action: a preliminary mapping and analysis

This rapid review research provides the most comprehensive mapping and analysis of predictive analytic initiatives in humanitarian aid to date. It documents 49 projects including a variety of novel applications (see Appendix for details). It provides a typology of predictive analytics in digital humanitarianism and answers a series of key questions about patterns of current use, ethical risks and future directions in the application of predictive analytics by humanitarian actors. The study took 14 days in May 2020. Forty-nine predictive analytics projects were mapped and analysed according to the main phases of the humanitarian cycle, type of predictions made, sector of application, geography of application, and technical approach used. Despite the limitations of rapid response research, some preliminary recommendations are made on the basis of the findings including: i) Governments, humanitarian agencies, funders and private companies should publish more open data in order to further extend the potential for predictive analytics; ii) Humanitarian agencies should apply the precautionary principle in data collection, data safeguarding and responsible data to protect vulnerable populations from harm; iii) To align practice with humanitarian principles and commitments, predictive analytics actors need to include affected populations in all aspects of the design and project cycle; iv) Funding of predictive analysis should be tied to risk assessment, risk mitigation and knowledge sharing on the ethics and downside-risks of predictive analytics; v) Funders should support the emerging ecosystem to develop geographical or thematic specialisms, convene knowledge-sharing events and produce ethical guidelines for practice; vi) Further research is necessary to build on this preliminary mapping and analysis in this crucial and rapidly developing area of humanitarian action vii) Primary research interviews with humanitarian agencies and key informants would make it possible to validate claims and establish the current status and future plans of initiatives; viii) A small number of case studies would improve depth of understanding about approaches being used and proposed pathways to scale; ix) Focus groups or a workshop would surface agency experience of risks and barriers not shared in publicly accessible documents and enable lesson learning

Motivational Principles and Personalisation Needs for Geo-Crowdsourced Intangible Cultural Heritage Mobile Applications

Whether it’s for altruistic reasons, personal gains, or third party’s interests, users are influenced by different kinds of motivations when making use of mobile geo-crowdsourcing applications (geoCAs). These reasons, extrinsic and/or intrinsic, must be factored in when evaluating the use intention of these applications and how effective they are. A functional geoCA, particularly if designed for Volunteered Geographic Information (VGI), is the one that persuades and engages its users, by accounting for their diversity of needs across a period of time. This paper explores a number of proven and novel motivational factors destined for the preservation and collection of Intangible Cultural Heritage (ICH) through geoCAs. By providing an overview of personalisation research and digital behaviour interventions for geo-crowdsoured ICH, the paper examines the most relevant usability and trigger factors for different crowd users, supported by a range of technology-based principles. In addition, we present the case of StoryBee, a mobile geoCA designed for “crafting stories” by collecting and sharing users’ generated content based on their location and favourite places. We conclude with an open-ended discussion about the ongoing challenges and opportunities arising from the deployment of geoCAs for ICH

Information management in disaster and development : geographic information systems

Mestrado em Desenvolvimento e Cooperação InternacionalThis research considers the theoretical and practical link between long-term sustainable development and disaster management. The aim is to develop a theoretical framework and a methodology which allows the use of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to manage the related information. Literature review leads us to understand development and disaster management as part of a learning cycle. Within this context, a common approach to information management is suggested to support the decision-making process in a cost-effective manner. A “universal” GIS is proposed to integrate information management for development and disaster while exploring the interactions between projects and project and the related geography which is considered a complex reality full of synergies between space, ecosystem, society, culture and economy. Study of academic production, practical implementations, interviews and a limited GIS application (using ArcMap and QGis) are used to endorse the capabilities of this concept. These capabilities are limited by lack of free information and cost of data gathering, interoperability and other technical issues. Open-source and crowdsourcing may solve some limitations while others need further research

A Contingent Systems View of Urban Logistics

As urban areas around the world continue to grow, many companies have set their sights on entering these increasingly important markets with dense and diverse customer populations. Unfortunately, the urban environment presents many unique challenges not encountered in traditional city-to-city logistics. As firms adapt to these unique challenges, differences between cities add further complexity. Applying the systems contingency theory perspective (Venkatraman, 1989), this research examines the differences between U.S. urban areas and the logistics strategies that best fit specific combinations of urban environmental characteristics. Following a multi-disciplinary literature review, case studies conducted in eight U.S. cities confirmed certain environmental characteristics and revealed various strategies tailored to individual urban environments. Next, an agent-based simulation model tested performance outcomes related to multiple environment-strategy combinations. The results highlight the impact of urban environment characteristics on logistics performance and the significance of urban area differences on logistics strategy. Finally, the dissertation concludes with recommendations for future research on integrating additional urban environmental characteristics into logistics strategy and the impact of logistics operations on urban systems in general

MODELLING & SIMULATION HYBRID WARFARE Researches, Models and Tools for Hybrid Warfare and Population Simulation

The Hybrid Warfare phenomena, which is the subject of the current research, has been framed by the work of Professor Agostino Bruzzone (University of Genoa) and Professor Erdal Cayirci (University of Stavanger), that in June 2016 created in order to inquiry the subject a dedicated Exploratory Team, which was endorsed by NATO Modelling & Simulation Group (a panel of the NATO Science & Technology organization) and established with the participation as well of the author. The author brought his personal contribution within the ET43 by introducing meaningful insights coming from the lecture of \u201cFight by the minutes: Time and the Art of War (1994)\u201d, written by Lieutenant Colonel US Army (Rtd.) Robert Leonhard; in such work, Leonhard extensively developed the concept that \u201cTime\u201d, rather than geometry of the battlefield and/or firepower, is the critical factor to tackle in military operations and by extension in Hybrid Warfare. The critical reflection about the time - both in its quantitative and qualitative dimension - in a hybrid confrontation it is addressed and studied inside SIMCJOH, a software built around challenges that imposes literally to \u201cFight by the minutes\u201d, echoing the core concept expressed in the eponymous work. Hybrid Warfare \u2013 which, by definition and purpose, aims to keep the military commitment of both aggressor and defender at the lowest - can gain enormous profit by employing a wide variety of non-military tools, turning them into a weapon, as in the case of the phenomena of \u201cweaponization of mass migrations\u201d, as it is examined in the \u201cDies Irae\u201d simulation architecture. Currently, since migration it is a very sensitive and divisive issue among the public opinions of many European countries, cynically leveraging on a humanitarian emergency caused by an exogenous, inducted migration, could result in a high level of political and social destabilization, which indeed favours the concurrent actions carried on by other hybrid tools. Other kind of disruption however, are already available in the arsenal of Hybrid Warfare, such cyber threats, information campaigns lead by troll factories for the diffusion of fake/altered news, etc. From this perspective the author examines how the TREX (Threat network simulation for REactive eXperience) simulator is able to offer insights about a hybrid scenario characterized by an intense level of social disruption, brought by cyber-attacks and systemic faking of news. Furthermore, the rising discipline of \u201cStrategic Engineering\u201d, as envisaged by Professor Agostino Bruzzone, when matched with the operational requirements to fulfil in order to counter Hybrid Threats, it brings another innovative, as much as powerful tool, into the professional luggage of the military and the civilian employed in Defence and Homeland security sectors. Hybrid is not the New War. What is new is brought by globalization paired with the transition to the information age and rising geopolitical tensions, which have put new emphasis on hybrid hostilities that manifest themselves in a contemporary way. Hybrid Warfare is a deliberate choice of an aggressor. While militarily weak nations can resort to it in order to re-balance the odds, instead military strong nations appreciate its inherent effectiveness coupled with the denial of direct responsibility, thus circumventing the rules of the International Community (IC). In order to be successful, Hybrid Warfare should consist of a highly coordinated, sapient mix of diverse and dynamic combination of regular forces, irregular forces (even criminal elements), cyber disruption etc. all in order to achieve effects across the entire DIMEFIL/PMESII_PT spectrum. However, the owner of the strategy, i.e. the aggressor, by keeping the threshold of impunity as high as possible and decreasing the willingness of the defender, can maintain his Hybrid Warfare at a diplomatically feasible level; so the model of the capacity, willingness and threshold, as proposed by Cayirci, Bruzzone and Gunneriusson (2016), remains critical to comprehend Hybrid Warfare. Its dynamicity is able to capture the evanescent, blurring line between Hybrid Warfare and Conventional Warfare. In such contest time is the critical factor: this because it is hard to foreseen for the aggressor how long he can keep up with such strategy without risking either the retaliation from the International Community or the depletion of resources across its own DIMEFIL/PMESII_PT spectrum. Similar discourse affects the defender: if he isn\u2019t able to cope with Hybrid Threats (i.e. taking no action), time works against him; if he is, he can start to develop counter narrative and address physical countermeasures. However, this can lead, in the medium long period, to an unforeseen (both for the attacker and the defender) escalation into a large, conventional, armed conflict. The performance of operations that required more than kinetic effects drove the development of DIMEFIL/PMESII_PT models and in turn this drive the development of Human Social Culture Behavior Modelling (HCSB), which should stand at the core of the Hybrid Warfare modelling and simulation efforts. Multi Layers models are fundamental to evaluate Strategies and Support Decisions: currently there are favourable conditions to implement models of Hybrid Warfare, such as Dies Irae, SIMCJOH and TREX, in order to further develop tools and war-games for studying new tactics, execute collective training and to support decisions making and analysis planning. The proposed approach is based on the idea to create a mosaic made by HLA interoperable simulators able to be combined as tiles to cover an extensive part of the Hybrid Warfare, giving the users an interactive and intuitive environment based on the \u201cModelling interoperable Simulation and Serious Game\u201d (MS2G) approach. From this point of view, the impressive capabilities achieved by IA-CGF in human behavior modeling to support population simulation as well as their native HLA structure, suggests to adopt them as core engine in this application field. However, it necessary to highlight that, when modelling DIMEFIL/PMESII_PT domains, the researcher has to be aware of the bias introduced by the fact that especially Political and Social \u201cscience\u201d are accompanied and built around value judgement. From this perspective, the models proposed by Cayirci, Bruzzone, Guinnarson (2016) and by Balaban & Mileniczek (2018) are indeed a courageous tentative to import, into the domain of particularly poorly understood phenomena (social, politics, and to a lesser degree economics - Hartley, 2016), the mathematical and statistical instruments and the methodologies employed by the pure, hard sciences. Nevertheless, just using the instruments and the methodology of the hard sciences it is not enough to obtain the objectivity, and is such aspect the representations of Hybrid Warfare mechanics could meet their limit: this is posed by the fact that they use, as input for the equations that represents Hybrid Warfare, not physical data observed during a scientific experiment, but rather observation of the reality that assumes implicitly and explicitly a value judgment, which could lead to a biased output. Such value judgement it is subjective, and not objective like the mathematical and physical sciences; when this is not well understood and managed by the academic and the researcher, it can introduce distortions - which are unacceptable for the purpose of the Science - which could be used as well to enforce a narrative mainstream that contains a so called \u201ctruth\u201d, which lies inside the boundary of politics rather than Science. Those observations around subjectivity of social sciences vs objectivity of pure sciences, being nothing new, suggest however the need to examine the problem under a new perspective, less philosophical and more leaned toward the practical application. The suggestion that the author want make here is that the Verification and Validation process, in particular the methodology used by Professor Bruzzone in doing V&V for SIMCJOH (2016) and the one described in the Modelling & Simulation User Risk Methodology (MURM) developed by Pandolfini, Youngblood et all (2018), could be applied to evaluate if there is a bias and the extent of the it, or at least making clear the value judgment adopted in developing the DIMEFIL/PMESII_PT models. Such V&V research is however outside the scope of the present work, even though it is an offspring of it, and for such reason the author would like to make further inquiries on this particular subject in the future. Then, the theoretical discourse around Hybrid Warfare has been completed addressing the need to establish a new discipline, Strategic Engineering, very much necessary because of the current a political and economic environment which allocates diminishing resources to Defense and Homeland Security (at least in Europe). However, Strategic Engineering can successfully address its challenges when coupled with the understanding and the management of the fourth dimension of military and hybrid operations, Time. For the reasons above, and as elaborated by Leonhard and extensively discussed in the present work, addressing the concern posed by Time dimension is necessary for the success of any military or Hybrid confrontation. The SIMCJOH project, examined under the above perspective, proved that the simulator has the ability to address the fourth dimension of military and non-military confrontation. In operations, Time is the most critical factor during execution, and this was successfully transferred inside the simulator; as such, SIMCJOH can be viewed as a training tool and as well a dynamic generator of events for the MEL/MIL execution during any exercise. In conclusion, SIMCJOH Project successfully faces new challenging aspects, allowed to study and develop new simulation models in order to support decision makers, Commanders and their Staff. Finally, the question posed by Leonhard in terms of recognition of the importance of time management of military operations - nowadays Hybrid Conflict - has not been answered yet; however, the author believes that Modelling and Simulation tools and techniques can represent the safe \u201ctank\u201d where innovative and advanced scientific solutions can be tested, exploiting the advantage of doing it in a synthetic environment

Enhancing Geospatial Preparedness for Disaster Management through the work of development organisations

A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor in Information Management, specialization in Geographic Information SystemsDepending on the complexity of a disaster and the local capacities, international organizations and multidisciplinary response teams might be involved in the response. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) are used for coordination and information sharing. However, geospatial preparedness is necessary: reliable up to date geodata, tools, and people with the knowledge to use those tools. In least-developed countries the lack of geospatial preparedness, particularly geospatial pre-disaster information, hinders disaster response. In those places, the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs creates a framework for cooperation with the Coordinated Data Scramble Initiative where Information Management Officers (IMOs) from different organisations are supported by volunteers and technical communities to provide ad-hoc datasets and infrastructure to use GIS. Nevertheless, long-term solutions are needed. Before the disaster, Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs) might already be using GIS to implement development projects. Based on the theoretical concept of disaster management and development as a learning circle, this investigation proposes the engagement of development NGOS working in disaster-prone areas to enhance geospatial preparedness. The research was based on a multi-method approach including the study of the body of literature, authoritative reports, and repositories and databases, monitorization of the tools used during responses to real emergencies, and semi-structured interviews to IMOs. Finally, the study concluded with an online survey with a worldwide sample of more than 200 development NGOs. The result show that disaster response requires reliable and up to date geodata which is not always the case. Humanitarian missions often rely on OpenStreetMap as a source of information to overcome this limitation. Therefore, improving OpenStreetMap would improve geospatial preparedness. Many development NGOs use digital geographic information, mostly open-data. They could indeed improve geospatial preparedness allowing community empowerment while conveying relevant pre-disaster datasets to the humanitarian missions. This bottom-up approach would allow for the inclusion of information relevant to the community in the disaster response decision-making process. There is, however, a limitation; most of these development NGOs are not familiar with the platform used by the humanitarian community (i.e., OpenStreetMap). Therefore, the sustainability of this synergic approach requires further harmonization between development and humanitarian organizations working for the wellbeing of the same communitie