Mortality and Longevity Projections for the Oldest-Old in Portugal

The mortality decline observed in developed countries over the last decades significantly increased the number of those surviving up to older ages. Mortality improvements are naturally viewed as a positive change for individuals and as a substantial social achievement for societies, but create new challenges in a number of different areas, ranging from the planning of all components of social security systems to labour markets. Understanding mortality and survival patterns at older ages is crucial. In this paper, we compare the results provided by a number of different methods designed to project mortality for the oldest-old in the Portuguese population. We identify the merits and limitations of each method and the consequences of their use in constructing complete life tables

BayesMortalityPlus: A package in R for Bayesian graduation of mortality modelling

The BayesMortalityPlus package provides a framework for modelling and predicting mortality data. The package includes tools for the construction of life tables based on Heligman-Pollard laws, and also on dynamic linear smoothers. Flexibility is available in terms of modelling so that the response variable may be modeled as Poisson, Binomial or Gaussian. If temporal data is available, the package provides a Bayesian implementation for the well-known Lee-Carter model that allows for estimation, projection of mortality over time, and assessment of uncertainty of any linear or nonlinear function of parameters such as life expectancy. Illustrations are considered to show the capability of the proposed package to model mortality data

In vitro replication capacity of HIV-2 variants from long-term aviremic individuals

To establish whether efficient suppression of virus replication in HIV-2-infected individuals is associated with low replicative capacity of HIV-2, replication kinetics of HIV-2 variants from long-term aviremic individuals was analyzed and compared with that of the relatively slow-replicating HIV-1 variants from asymptomatics and long-term nonprogressors (AS/LTNP). On average, HIV-2 from aviremic individuals had lower replication rates than HIV-1 variants from AS/LTNP in cells of 8 donors (0.45 log10 [range 0.14-0.77] vs. 0.58 log10 [range 0.32-0.99] pg RT/ml/day, P = 0.036). The relatively low replication rate of HIV-2 compared to HIV-1 variants was not related to different sensitivities to inhibition by CD8+ T cells or different degrees of infectivity. HIV-2 replication rates increased with progressive infection and with switch from CCR5 to CXCR4 usage. The relatively low replicative capacity of HIV-2 variants from aviremic individuals likely contributes to the low viral load and benign course of infection in these individuals

In vitro replication capacity of HIV-2 variants from long-term aviremic individuals

AbstractTo establish whether efficient suppression of virus replication in HIV-2-infected individuals is associated with low replicative capacity of HIV-2, replication kinetics of HIV-2 variants from long-term aviremic individuals was analyzed and compared with that of the relatively slow-replicating HIV-1 variants from asymptomatics and long-term nonprogressors (AS/LTNP). On average, HIV-2 from aviremic individuals had lower replication rates than HIV-1 variants from AS/LTNP in cells of 8 donors (0.45 log10 [range 0.14–0.77] vs. 0.58 log10 [range 0.32–0.99] pg RT/ml/day, P = 0.036). The relatively low replication rate of HIV-2 compared to HIV-1 variants was not related to different sensitivities to inhibition by CD8+ T cells or different degrees of infectivity. HIV-2 replication rates increased with progressive infection and with switch from CCR5 to CXCR4 usage.The relatively low replicative capacity of HIV-2 variants from aviremic individuals likely contributes to the low viral load and benign course of infection in these individuals

Old age mortality : a state of the art

This Phd research report aims to obtain a better understanding of the recent changes in mortality of the elderly population in developed countries. It's essence will be a critical thinking, without performing empirical work, which means that the analysis and concepts of the actual demographic literature will form the main body of this work. There are two central questions: Which age and cause specific mortality trends caused these recent changes in the life expectancy?Did the increase in life expectancy of the elderly population accelerate, continue or decline in recent years?"Aquesta memòria de recerca de doctorat té com a objectiu obtenir una millor comprensió dels recents canvis de mortalitat de la població més vella en els països desenvolupats. L'essència d'aquest treball és més bé teòric que empíric, per tant l'anàlisis i conceptes de la recent literatura demogràfica formaran el cos principal d'aquest treball. Hi ha dues qüestions principals: Quines edats i causes de mort provoquen aquests canvis recents de l'esperança de vida ? L 'augment de l' esperança de vida de la població més vella s' accelera, accelerar, es manté o disminueixr en aquests darrers anys

The transition to Post-industrial BMI values among US children

Background: The trend in the BMI values of US children has not been estimated very convincingly because of the absence of longitudinal data. Our object is to estimate time series of BMI values by birth cohorts instead of measurement years. Methods: We use five regression models to estimate the BMI trends of non-Hispanic US-born black and white children and adolescents ages 2-19 between 1941 and 2004. Results: The increase in BMIZ values during the period considered was 1.3σ (95% CI: 1.16σ; 1.44σ) among black girls, 0.8σ for black boys, 0.7σ for white boys, and 0.6σ for white girls. This translates into an increase in BMI values of some 5.6, 3.3, 2.4, and 1.5 units respectively. While the increase in BMI values started among the birth cohorts of the 1940s among black girls, the rate of increase tended to accelerate among all four ethnic/gender groups born in the mid-1950s – early-1960s. Conclusion: Some regional evidence leads to the conjecture that the spread of automobiles and radios affected the BMI values of boys already in the interwar period. We suppose that the changes in lifestyle associated with the labor saving technological developments of the 20th century are associated with the weight gains observed. The increased popularity of television viewing was most prominently associated with the contemporaneous acceleration in BMI gain

Errors as a primary cause of late-life mortality deceleration and plateaus

Several organisms, including humans, display a deceleration in mortality rates at advanced ages. This mortality deceleration is sufficiently rapid to allow late-life mortality to plateau in old age in several species, causing the apparent cessation of biological ageing. Here, it is shown that late-life mortality deceleration (LLMD) and late-life plateaus are caused by common demographic errors. Age estimation and cohort blending errors introduced at rates below 1 in 10,000 are sufficient to cause LLMD and plateaus. In humans, observed error rates of birth and death registration predict the magnitude of LLMD. Correction for these sources of demographic error using a mixed linear model eliminates LLMD and late-life mortality plateaus (LLMPs) without recourse to biological or evolutionary models. These results suggest models developed to explain LLMD have been fitted to an error distribution, that ageing does not slow or stop during old age in humans, and that there is a finite limit to human longevity

The Transition to Post-industrial BMI Values Among US Children

In our opinion, the trend in the BMI values of US children has not been estimated accurately. We use five models to estimate the BMI trends of non-Hispanic US-born black and white children and adolescents ages 2-19 born 1941-2006 on the basis of all NHES and NHANES data sets. We also use some historical BMI values for comparison. The increase in BMIZ values during the period considered was on average 1.3σ (95% CI: 1.16σ; 1.44σ) among black girls, 0.8σ for black boys, 0.7σ for white boys, and 0.6σ for white girls. This translates into an increase in BMI values of some 5.6, 3.3, 2.4, and 1.5 units respectively. While the increase in BMI values started among the birth cohorts of the 1940s among black females, the rate of increase tended to accelerate among all four groups born in the mid-1950s to early-1960s with the contemporaneous spread of TV viewing. The rate of increase levelled off somewhat thereafter. There is some indication that among black boys and white girls born after c. 1990 adiposity has remained unchanged or perhaps even declined. The affects of the IT revolution of the last two decades of the century is less evident. Some regional evidence leads to the speculation that the spread of automobiles and radios affected the BMI values of boys already in the interwar period. We infer that the incremental weight increases are associated with the labor-saving technological developments of the 20th century which brought about many faceted cultural and nutritional revolutions.