56,260 research outputs found
Modeling Taxi Drivers' Behaviour for the Next Destination Prediction
In this paper, we study how to model taxi drivers' behaviour and geographical
information for an interesting and challenging task: the next destination
prediction in a taxi journey. Predicting the next location is a well studied
problem in human mobility, which finds several applications in real-world
scenarios, from optimizing the efficiency of electronic dispatching systems to
predicting and reducing the traffic jam. This task is normally modeled as a
multiclass classification problem, where the goal is to select, among a set of
already known locations, the next taxi destination. We present a Recurrent
Neural Network (RNN) approach that models the taxi drivers' behaviour and
encodes the semantics of visited locations by using geographical information
from Location-Based Social Networks (LBSNs). In particular, RNNs are trained to
predict the exact coordinates of the next destination, overcoming the problem
of producing, in output, a limited set of locations, seen during the training
phase. The proposed approach was tested on the ECML/PKDD Discovery Challenge
2015 dataset - based on the city of Porto -, obtaining better results with
respect to the competition winner, whilst using less information, and on
Manhattan and San Francisco datasets.Comment: preprint version of a paper submitted to IEEE Transactions on
Intelligent Transportation System
Anticipatory Mobile Computing: A Survey of the State of the Art and Research Challenges
Today's mobile phones are far from mere communication devices they were ten
years ago. Equipped with sophisticated sensors and advanced computing hardware,
phones can be used to infer users' location, activity, social setting and more.
As devices become increasingly intelligent, their capabilities evolve beyond
inferring context to predicting it, and then reasoning and acting upon the
predicted context. This article provides an overview of the current state of
the art in mobile sensing and context prediction paving the way for
full-fledged anticipatory mobile computing. We present a survey of phenomena
that mobile phones can infer and predict, and offer a description of machine
learning techniques used for such predictions. We then discuss proactive
decision making and decision delivery via the user-device feedback loop.
Finally, we discuss the challenges and opportunities of anticipatory mobile
computing.Comment: 29 pages, 5 figure
Location Prediction: Communities Speak Louder than Friends
Humans are social animals, they interact with different communities of
friends to conduct different activities. The literature shows that human
mobility is constrained by their social relations. In this paper, we
investigate the social impact of a person's communities on his mobility,
instead of all friends from his online social networks. This study can be
particularly useful, as certain social behaviors are influenced by specific
communities but not all friends. To achieve our goal, we first develop a
measure to characterize a person's social diversity, which we term `community
entropy'. Through analysis of two real-life datasets, we demonstrate that a
person's mobility is influenced only by a small fraction of his communities and
the influence depends on the social contexts of the communities. We then
exploit machine learning techniques to predict users' future movement based on
their communities' information. Extensive experiments demonstrate the
prediction's effectiveness.Comment: ACM Conference on Online Social Networks 2015, COSN 201
A Survey of Location Prediction on Twitter
Locations, e.g., countries, states, cities, and point-of-interests, are
central to news, emergency events, and people's daily lives. Automatic
identification of locations associated with or mentioned in documents has been
explored for decades. As one of the most popular online social network
platforms, Twitter has attracted a large number of users who send millions of
tweets on daily basis. Due to the world-wide coverage of its users and
real-time freshness of tweets, location prediction on Twitter has gained
significant attention in recent years. Research efforts are spent on dealing
with new challenges and opportunities brought by the noisy, short, and
context-rich nature of tweets. In this survey, we aim at offering an overall
picture of location prediction on Twitter. Specifically, we concentrate on the
prediction of user home locations, tweet locations, and mentioned locations. We
first define the three tasks and review the evaluation metrics. By summarizing
Twitter network, tweet content, and tweet context as potential inputs, we then
structurally highlight how the problems depend on these inputs. Each dependency
is illustrated by a comprehensive review of the corresponding strategies
adopted in state-of-the-art approaches. In addition, we also briefly review two
related problems, i.e., semantic location prediction and point-of-interest
recommendation. Finally, we list future research directions.Comment: Accepted to TKDE. 30 pages, 1 figur
Exploiting Map Topology Knowledge for Context-predictive Multi-interface Car-to-cloud Communication
While the automotive industry is currently facing a contest among different
communication technologies and paradigms about predominance in the connected
vehicles sector, the diversity of the various application requirements makes it
unlikely that a single technology will be able to fulfill all given demands.
Instead, the joint usage of multiple communication technologies seems to be a
promising candidate that allows benefiting from characteristical strengths
(e.g., using low latency direct communication for safety-related messaging).
Consequently, dynamic network interface selection has become a field of
scientific interest. In this paper, we present a cross-layer approach for
context-aware transmission of vehicular sensor data that exploits mobility
control knowledge for scheduling the transmission time with respect to the
anticipated channel conditions for the corresponding communication technology.
The proposed multi-interface transmission scheme is evaluated in a
comprehensive simulation study, where it is able to achieve significant
improvements in data rate and reliability
Fundamental structures of dynamic social networks
Social systems are in a constant state of flux with dynamics spanning from
minute-by-minute changes to patterns present on the timescale of years.
Accurate models of social dynamics are important for understanding spreading of
influence or diseases, formation of friendships, and the productivity of teams.
While there has been much progress on understanding complex networks over the
past decade, little is known about the regularities governing the
micro-dynamics of social networks. Here we explore the dynamic social network
of a densely-connected population of approximately 1000 individuals and their
interactions in the network of real-world person-to-person proximity measured
via Bluetooth, as well as their telecommunication networks, online social media
contacts, geo-location, and demographic data. These high-resolution data allow
us to observe social groups directly, rendering community detection
unnecessary. Starting from 5-minute time slices we uncover dynamic social
structures expressed on multiple timescales. On the hourly timescale, we find
that gatherings are fluid, with members coming and going, but organized via a
stable core of individuals. Each core represents a social context. Cores
exhibit a pattern of recurring meetings across weeks and months, each with
varying degrees of regularity. Taken together, these findings provide a
powerful simplification of the social network, where cores represent
fundamental structures expressed with strong temporal and spatial regularity.
Using this framework, we explore the complex interplay between social and
geospatial behavior, documenting how the formation of cores are preceded by
coordination behavior in the communication networks, and demonstrating that
social behavior can be predicted with high precision.Comment: Main Manuscript: 16 pages, 4 figures. Supplementary Information: 39
pages, 34 figure
Using Random Forests to Describe Equity in Higher Education: A Critical Quantitative Analysis of Utah’s Postsecondary Pipelines
The following work examines the Random Forest (RF) algorithm as a tool for predicting student outcomes and interrogating the equity of postsecondary education pipelines. The RF model, created using longitudinal data of 41,303 students from Utah\u27s 2008 high school graduation cohort, is compared to logistic and linear models, which are commonly used to predict college access and success. Substantially, this work finds High School GPA to be the best predictor of postsecondary GPA, whereas commonly used ACT and AP test scores are not nearly as important. Each model identified several demographic disparities in higher education access, most significantly the effects of individual-level economic disadvantage. District- and school-level factors such as the proportion of Low Income students and the proportion of Underrepresented Racial Minority (URM) students were important and negatively associated with postsecondary success. Methodologically, the RF model was able to capture non-linearity in the predictive power of school- and district-level variables, a key finding which was undetectable using linear models. The RF algorithm outperforms logistic models in prediction of student enrollment, performs similarly to linear models in prediction of postsecondary GPA, and excels both models in its descriptions of non-linear variable relationships. RF provides novel interpretations of data, challenges conclusions from linear models, and has enormous potential to further the literature around equity in postsecondary pipelines
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