Challenges in Complex Systems Science

FuturICT foundations are social science, complex systems science, and ICT. The main concerns and challenges in the science of complex systems in the context of FuturICT are laid out in this paper with special emphasis on the Complex Systems route to Social Sciences. This include complex systems having: many heterogeneous interacting parts; multiple scales; complicated transition laws; unexpected or unpredicted emergence; sensitive dependence on initial conditions; path-dependent dynamics; networked hierarchical connectivities; interaction of autonomous agents; self-organisation; non-equilibrium dynamics; combinatorial explosion; adaptivity to changing environments; co-evolving subsystems; ill-defined boundaries; and multilevel dynamics. In this context, science is seen as the process of abstracting the dynamics of systems from data. This presents many challenges including: data gathering by large-scale experiment, participatory sensing and social computation, managing huge distributed dynamic and heterogeneous databases; moving from data to dynamical models, going beyond correlations to cause-effect relationships, understanding the relationship between simple and comprehensive models with appropriate choices of variables, ensemble modeling and data assimilation, modeling systems of systems of systems with many levels between micro and macro; and formulating new approaches to prediction, forecasting, and risk, especially in systems that can reflect on and change their behaviour in response to predictions, and systems whose apparently predictable behaviour is disrupted by apparently unpredictable rare or extreme events. These challenges are part of the FuturICT agenda

Schelling, von Neumann, and the Event that Didn’t Occur

Thomas Schelling was recognized by the Nobel Prize committee as a pioneer in the application of game theory and rational choice analysis to problems of politics and international relations. However, although he makes frequent references in his writings to this approach, his main explorations and insights depend upon and require acknowledgment of its limitations. One of his principal concerns was how a country could engage in successful deterrence. If the behavioral assumptions that commonly underpin game theory are taken seriously and applied consistently, however, nuclear adversaries are almost certain to engage in devastating conflict, as John von Neumann forcefully asserted. The history of the last half century falsified von Neumann’s prediction, and the “event that didn’t occur” formed the subject of Schelling’s Nobel lecture. The answer to the question “why?” is the central concern of this paper

Enroute flight planning: The design of cooperative planning systems

Design concepts and principles to guide in the building of cooperative problem solving systems are being developed and evaluated. In particular, the design of cooperative systems for enroute flight planning is being studied. The investigation involves a three stage process, modeling human performance in existing environments, building cognitive artifacts, and studying the performance of people working in collaboration with these artifacts. The most significant design concepts and principles identified thus far are the principle focus

Inequality and Uncertainty: Theory and Legal Applications

Welfarism is the principle that social policy should be based solely on individual well-being, with no reference to \u27fairness or rights. The propriety of this approach has recently been the subject of extensive debate within legal scholarship. Rather than contributing (directly) to this debate, we identify and analyze a problem within welfarism that has received far too little attentioncall this the ex ante/ex post problem. The problem arises from the combination of uncertainty-an inevitable feature of real policy choice-and a social preference for equality. If the policymaker is not a utilitarian, but rather has a social welfare function that is equity regarding to some degree, then she faces a critical choice. Should she care about the equalization of expected well-being (the ex ante approach), or should she care about the expected equalization of actual well-being (the ex post approach)? Should she focus on the equality of prospects or the prospects for equality? In this Article, we bring the ex ante/ex post problem to the attention of legal academics, provide novel insight into when and why the problem arises, and highlight legal applications where the problem figures prominently. We ultimately conclude that welfarism requires an ex post approach. This is a counterintuitive conclusion, because the ex post approach can conflict with ex ante Pareto superiority. Indeed, this Article demonstrates that the ex post application of every equity-regarding social welfare function-whatever its particular form-must conflict with ex ante Pareto superiority in specific situations. Among other things, then, this Article shows that legal academics who care about equity must abandon either their commitment to welfarism or their commitment to ex ante Pareto superiorit

California Coastal Commission Sea Level Rise Policy Guidance: Interpretive Guidelines for Addressing Sea Level Rise in Local Coastal Programs and Coastal Development Permits

It provides an overview of the best available science on sea level rise for California and recommended methodology for addressing sea level rise in Coastal Commission planning and regulatory actions. It is a guidance document intended to serve as a multi-purpose resource for a variety of audiences. It does not include regulations and is not specific to a particular geographic location or development intensity

HTN planning: Overview, comparison, and beyond

Hierarchies are one of the most common structures used to understand and conceptualise the world. Within the field of Artificial Intelligence (AI) planning, which deals with the automation of world-relevant problems, Hierarchical Task Network (HTN) planning is the branch that represents and handles hierarchies. In particular, the requirement for rich domain knowledge to characterise the world enables HTN planning to be very useful, and also to perform well. However, the history of almost 40 years obfuscates the current understanding of HTN planning in terms of accomplishments, planning models, similarities and differences among hierarchical planners, and its current and objective image. On top of these issues, the ability of hierarchical planning to truly cope with the requirements of real-world applications has been often questioned. As a remedy, we propose a framework-based approach where we first provide a basis for defining different formal models of hierarchical planning, and define two models that comprise a large portion of HTN planners. Second, we provide a set of concepts that helps in interpreting HTN planners from the aspect of their search space. Then, we analyse and compare the planners based on a variety of properties organised in five segments, namely domain authoring, expressiveness, competence, computation and applicability. Furthermore, we select Web service composition as a real-world and current application, and classify and compare the approaches that employ HTN planning to solve the problem of service composition. Finally, we conclude with our findings and present directions for future work. In summary, we provide a novel and comprehensive viewpoint on a core AI planning technique.<br/

Study on bridge inspections, A: identifying barriers to new practices and providing strategies for change

2021 Summer.Includes bibliographical references.Bridge inspections are one of the key elements required for a successful bridge management process to ensure adequate bridge performance. Inspections significantly inform maintenance decisions and can help in managing maintenance activities to achieve a reliable bridge network. In the United States (U.S.) routine visual inspections are required for most bridges at a maximum interval of 24-months regardless of the bridge condition. However, limitations of current bridge inspection practices impact the quality of information provided about bridge condition and the subsequent decisions made based on that information. Accordingly, the overarching goal of this research project is to support bridge inspection practices by providing a systematic and rational framework for bridge inspection planning and identifying the factors that can facilitate innovation and research transfer in the bridge inspection field. To do so, this dissertation includes three separate yet related studies; each focusing on essential aspects of bridge inspection planning. Much research in bridge inspection has been conducted to improve the inspection planning process. The first study provides an overview of current bridge inspection practices in the U.S. and conducts a systematic literature review on innovations in the field of bridge inspection planning to identify research gaps and future needs. This study provides a background on the history of bridge inspection in the U.S., including current bridge inspection practices and their limitations, and analyzes the connections between nondestructive evaluation techniques, deterioration models and bridge inspection management. The primary emphasis of the first study is a thorough analysis of research proposing and investigating different methodologies for inspection planning. Studies were analyzed and categorized into three main types of inspection planning approaches; methods that are based on: reliability, risk analysis, and optimization approaches. This study found that one of the main barriers that may be preventing the implementation of new inspection planning frameworks in practice is that the approaches presented focus on a single bridge element or deterioration mechanism in the decision-making process. Additionally, it was concluded that approaches in the literature are either complex to apply or depend solely on expert judgement. Limitations of the uniform calendar-based approach used to schedule routine inspections have been reported in the literature. Accordingly, the objective of the second study is to provide a new systematic approach for inspection planning that integrates information from bridge condition prediction models, inspection data, and expert opinion using Bayesian analysis to enhance inspection efficiency and maintenance activities. The proposed uncertainty-based inspection framework can help bridge owners avoid unnecessary or delayed inspections and repair actions, determine the inspection method, and consider more than one deterioration process or bridge component during the inspection planning process. The inspection time and method are determined based on the uncertainty and risks associated with the bridge condition. As uncertainty in the bridge condition reaches a defined threshold, an inspection is scheduled utilizing nondestructive techniques to reduce the uncertainty level. The framework was demonstrated on a new and on an existing reinforced concrete bridge deck impacted by corrosion deterioration. The results showed that the framework can reduce the number of inspections compared to conventional scheduling methods, while also reducing the uncertainty regarding the transition in the bridge deck condition and repair time. As identified through the first study, over the last two decades many researchers have focused on providing new ideas to improve conventional bridge inspection practices, however, little guidance is provided for implementing these new research products in practice. This, along with resistance to change and complexity of the proposed ideas, resulted in a lack of consistency and success in applying new technologies in bridge inspection programs across state departments of transportation (DOTs). Accordingly, the third paper presents a qualitative study set out to identify the factors that can help improve research products and accelerate change and research transfer in bridge inspection departments. This study used semi-structured interviews, written interviews, and questionnaires for data collection and engaged with twenty-six bridge staff members from different DOTs. The findings of this study are expected to be both specific to changes in bridge inspection practice and have some generalizability to other significant changes to engineering practice at DOTs. To improve research products, this study suggested that researchers need to collaborate more with DOT staff members and provide relevant research products that are not specific to certain bridge cases and can be applied on different bridges. Also, to facilitate change in transportation organizations, change leaders should focus on showing the need for change, gaining support from the FHWA, allocating the required resources, and enhancing the capacity of DOT staff members through training and effective communication. The investigation also presented participants' opinions on some of the aspects related to conventional inspection practices such as their support of a uniform inspection interval over a variable interval, and the main barriers limiting the use of NDE methods. This study contributes to the body of knowledge in the bridge inspection field by providing a new inspection planning approach that depends on the uncertainty and the risks associated with the bridge condition and uses both computational methods and expert judgment allowing bridge owners select inspection time and method while considering more than one deterioration process or bridge element. In addition, this study presents some of the factors that can help reduce the gap between research and practice and facilitate innovation and change in transportation organizations

Uncertainty in life cycle costing for long-range infrastructure. Part I: leveling the playing field to address uncertainties

Purpose Life cycle costing (LCC) is a state-of-the-art method to analyze investment decisions in infrastructure projects. However, uncertainties inherent in long-term planning question the credibility of LCC results. Previous research has not systematically linked sources and methods to address this uncertainty. Part I of this series develops a framework to collect and categorize different sources of uncertainty and addressing methods. This systematization is a prerequisite to further analyze the suitability of methods and levels the playing field for part II. Methods Past reviews have dealt with selected issues of uncertainty in LCC. However, none has systematically collected uncertainties and linked methods to address them. No comprehensive categorization has been published to date. Part I addresses these two research gaps by conducting a systematic literature review. In a rigorous four-step approach, we first scrutinized major databases. Second, we performed a practical and methodological screening to identify in total 115 relevant publications, mostly case studies. Third, we applied content analysis using MAXQDA. Fourth, we illustrated results and concluded upon the research gaps. Results and discussion We identified 33 sources of uncertainty and 24 addressing methods. Sources of uncertainties were categorized according to (i) its origin, i.e., parameter, model, and scenario uncertainty and (ii) the nature of uncertainty, i.e., aleatoric or epistemic uncertainty. The methods to address uncertainties were classified into deterministic, probabilistic, possibilistic, and other methods. With regard to sources of uncertainties, lack of data and data quality was analyzed most often. Most uncertainties having been discussed were located in the use stage. With regard to methods, sensitivity analyses were applied most widely, while more complex methods such as Bayesian models were used less frequently. Data availability and the individual expertise of LCC practitioner foremost influence the selection of methods. Conclusions This article complements existing research by providing a thorough systematization of uncertainties in LCC. However, an unambiguous categorization of uncertainties is difficult and overlapping occurs. Such a systemizing approach is nevertheless necessary for further analyses and levels the playing field for readers not yet familiar with the topic. Part I concludes the following: First, an investigation about which methods are best suited to address a certain type of uncertainty is still outstanding. Second, an analysis of types of uncertainty that have been insufficiently addressed in previous LCC cases is still missing. Part II will focus on these research gaps

Kosovo and the Great Air Power Debate

The following section provides an overview of how to think about air power and coercion, addressing several key limits of the current literature. We next examine NATO goals in Kosovo and the mixed success eventually achieved. Using that baseline, we explore various explanations for Belgrade\u27s eventual capitulation and clarify how air power\u27s role in each of them should be understood; we leave aside the issue of whether coercion was a proper strategy for addressing the Balkan crisis and focus instead on how to assess air power as a tool of that strategy. We conclude with recommendations for recasting the air power debate to better reflect air power\u27s true contributions and limits