Arithmetic computation with probability words and numbers

Probability information is regularly communicated to experts who must fuse multiple estimates to support decision-making. Such information is often communicated verbally (e.g., “likely”) rather than with precise numeric (point) values (e.g., “.75”), yet people are not taught to perform arithmetic on verbal probabilities. We hypothesized that the accuracy and logical coherence of averaging and multiplying probabilities will be poorer when individuals receive probability information in verbal rather than numerical point format. In four experiments (N = 213, 201, 26, and 343, respectively), we manipulated probability communication format between-subjects. Participants averaged and multiplied sets of four probabilities. Across experiments, arithmetic accuracy and coherence was significantly better with point than with verbal probabilities. These findings generalized between expert (intelligence analysts) and non-expert samples and when controlling for calculator use. Experiment 4 revealed an important qualification: whereas accuracy and coherence were better among participants presented with point probabilities than with verbal probabilities, imprecise numeric probability ranges (e.g., “.70 to .80”) afforded no computational advantage over verbal probabilities. Experiment 4 also revealed that the advantage of the point over the verbal format is partially mediated by strategy use. Participants presented with point estimates are more likely to use mental computation than guesswork, and mental computation was found to be associated with better accuracy. Our findings suggest that where computation is important, probability information should be communicated to end users with precise numeric probabilities

Fuzzy Sets in Business Management, Finance, and Economics

This book collects fifteen papers published in s Special Issue of Mathematics titled “Fuzzy Sets in Business Management, Finance, and Economics”, which was published in 2021. These paper cover a wide range of different tools from Fuzzy Set Theory and applications in many areas of Business Management and other connected fields. Specifically, this book contains applications of such instruments as, among others, Fuzzy Set Qualitative Comparative Analysis, Neuro-Fuzzy Methods, the Forgotten Effects Algorithm, Expertons Theory, Fuzzy Markov Chains, Fuzzy Arithmetic, Decision Making with OWA Operators and Pythagorean Aggregation Operators, Fuzzy Pattern Recognition, and Intuitionistic Fuzzy Sets. The papers in this book tackle a wide variety of problems in areas such as strategic management, sustainable decisions by firms and public organisms, tourism management, accounting and auditing, macroeconomic modelling, the evaluation of public organizations and universities, and actuarial modelling. We hope that this book will be useful not only for business managers, public decision-makers, and researchers in the specific fields of business management, finance, and economics but also in the broader areas of soft mathematics in social sciences. Practitioners will find methods and ideas that could be fruitful in current management issues. Scholars will find novel developments that may inspire further applications in the social sciences

Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis and Cost-Benefit Analysis : Comparing alternative frameworks for integrated valuation of ecosystem services

Highlights • MDCA methods can account for multiple dimensions of well-being. • They can facilitate open and transparent public debate on ecosystem services. • Non-aggregative approaches to MCDA are recommended in the face of value conflict. • MCDA cannot provide representative information of the values of wider population . • Further research is needed on the potential of hybrid methodologies.Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) methods has been promoted as an alternative approach to monetary economic valuation of ecosystem services in Cost-Benefit Analysis framework (CBA). We discuss the potential of MCDA in providing a framework for integrated valuation of ecosystem services. We conclude that MCDA does in general perform better than CBA and associated monetary valuation techniques in several aspects that are essential in ecosystem service valuation. These include the ability of a valuation method to account for multiple dimensions of well-being, including ecological and economic as well as cultural and moral aspects of a policy or management problem and to facilitate open and transparent public debate on the pros and cons of alternative courses of action, including the distribution of gains and losses across beneficiaries of ecosystem services. The capacity of MCDA to articulate values related to ecosystem services depends on individual methods used in the MCDA process. More importantly, it depends of the ways in which the process is organized and facilitated. However, MCDA cannot provide representative information of the values of wider population. Further empirical and theoretical research is needed on the potential of hybrid methodologies to combine monetary valuation and MCDA in fruitful ways

Multispace & Multistructure. Neutrosophic Transdisciplinarity (100 Collected Papers of Sciences), Vol. IV

The fourth volume, in my book series of “Collected Papers”, includes 100 published and unpublished articles, notes, (preliminary) drafts containing just ideas to be further investigated, scientific souvenirs, scientific blogs, project proposals, small experiments, solved and unsolved problems and conjectures, updated or alternative versions of previous papers, short or long humanistic essays, letters to the editors - all collected in the previous three decades (1980-2010) – but most of them are from the last decade (2000-2010), some of them being lost and found, yet others are extended, diversified, improved versions. This is an eclectic tome of 800 pages with papers in various fields of sciences, alphabetically listed, such as: astronomy, biology, calculus, chemistry, computer programming codification, economics and business and politics, education and administration, game theory, geometry, graph theory, information fusion, neutrosophic logic and set, non-Euclidean geometry, number theory, paradoxes, philosophy of science, psychology, quantum physics, scientific research methods, and statistics. It was my preoccupation and collaboration as author, co-author, translator, or cotranslator, and editor with many scientists from around the world for long time. Many topics from this book are incipient and need to be expanded in future explorations

Unplanned dilution and ore-loss optimisation in underground mines via cooperative neuro-fuzzy network

The aim of study is to establish a proper unplanned dilution and ore-loss (UB: uneven break) management system. To achieve the goal, UB prediction and consultation systems were established using artificial neural network (ANN) and fuzzy expert system (FES). Attempts have been made to illuminate the UB mechanism by scrutinising the contributions of potential UB influence factors. Ultimately, the proposed UB prediction and consultation systems were unified as a cooperative neuro fuzzy system

Metasemantics and fuzzy mathematics

The present thesis is an inquiry into the metasemantics of natural languages, with a particular focus on the philosophical motivations for countenancing degreed formal frameworks for both psychosemantics and truth-conditional semantics. Chapter 1 sets out to offer a bird's eye view of our overall research project and the key questions that we set out to address. Chapter 2 provides a self-contained overview of the main empirical findings in the cognitive science of concepts and categorisation. This scientific background is offered in light of the fact that most variants of psychologically-informed semantics see our network of concepts as providing the raw materials on which lexical and sentential meanings supervene. Consequently, the metaphysical study of internalistically-construed meanings and the empirical study of our mental categories are overlapping research projects. Chapter 3 closely investigates a selection of species of conceptual semantics, together with reasons for adopting or disavowing them. We note that our ultimate aim is not to defend these perspectives on the study of meaning, but to argue that the project of making them formally precise naturally invites the adoption of degreed mathematical frameworks (e.g. probabilistic or fuzzy). In Chapter 4, we switch to the orthodox framework of truth-conditional semantics, and we present the limitations of a philosophical position that we call "classicism about vagueness". In the process, we come up with an empirical hypothesis for the psychological pull of the inductive soritical premiss and we make an original objection against the epistemicist position, based on computability theory. Chapter 5 makes a different case for the adoption of degreed semantic frameworks, based on their (quasi-)superior treatments of the paradoxes of vagueness. Hence, the adoption of tools that allow for graded membership are well-motivated under both semantic internalism and semantic externalism. At the end of this chapter, we defend an unexplored view of vagueness that we call "practical fuzzicism". Chapter 6, viz. the final chapter, is a metamathematical enquiry into both the fuzzy model-theoretic semantics and the fuzzy Davidsonian semantics for formal languages of type-free truth in which precise truth-predications can be expressed

Efficient Decision Support Systems

This series is directed to diverse managerial professionals who are leading the transformation of individual domains by using expert information and domain knowledge to drive decision support systems (DSSs). The series offers a broad range of subjects addressed in specific areas such as health care, business management, banking, agriculture, environmental improvement, natural resource and spatial management, aviation administration, and hybrid applications of information technology aimed to interdisciplinary issues. This book series is composed of three volumes: Volume 1 consists of general concepts and methodology of DSSs; Volume 2 consists of applications of DSSs in the biomedical domain; Volume 3 consists of hybrid applications of DSSs in multidisciplinary domains. The book is shaped upon decision support strategies in the new infrastructure that assists the readers in full use of the creative technology to manipulate input data and to transform information into useful decisions for decision makers