Going Home: Evacuation-Migration Decisions of Hurricane Katrina Survivors

In the wake of Hurricane Katrina, many evacuees from the Gulf region began the difficult process of deciding whether to rebuild or restart elsewhere. We examine pre-Katrina Gulf residents’ decision to return to the post-disaster Gulf region—which we call the “return migration” decision. We estimate two separate return migration models, first utilizing data from a mail survey of individuals in the affected region and then focusing on self-administered questionnaires of evacuees in Houston. Our results indicate that return migration can be affected by household income; age; education level; employment, marital and home ownership status; but the results depend upon the population under consideration. We find no impact of “connection to place” on the return migration decision. While the impact of income is relatively small, we find that the real wage differential between home and host region influences the likelihood of return. Larger implicit costs, in terms of foregone wages for returning, induce a lower likelihood of return. Exploiting this difference at the individual level, we are able to produce estimates of willingness to pay to return home. Average WTP to return home for a sample of relatively poor households is estimated at $1.94 per hour or$3,954 per year.

Going Home after Hurricane Katrina: Determinants of Return Migration and Changes in Affected Areas

This paper examines the decision of Hurricane Katrina evacuees to return to their pre- Katrina areas and documents how the composition of the Katrina-affected region changed over time. Using data from the Current Population Survey, we show that an evacuee’s age and the severity of damage in an evacuee’s county of origin are important determinants of whether an evacuee returned during the first year after the storm. Blacks were less likely to return than whites, but this difference is primarily related to the geographical pattern of storm damage rather than to race per se. The difference between the composition of evacuees who returned and the composition of evacuees who did not return is the primary force behind changes in the composition of the affected areas in the first two years after the storm. Katrina is associated with substantial shifts in the racial composition of the affected areas (namely a decrease in the percentage of residents who are black) and an increasing presence of Hispanics. Katrina is also associated with an increase in the percentage of older residents, a decrease in the percentage of residents with low income/education, and an increase in the percentage of residents with high income/education.Hurricane Katrina; Geographic Mobility; Return Migration; Disasters

SOCIAL NETWORK INFLUENCE ON RIDESHARING, DISASTER COMMUNICATIONS, AND COMMUNITY INTERACTIONS

The complex topology of real networks allows network agents to change their functional behavior. Conceptual and methodological developments in network analysis have furthered our understanding of the effects of interpersonal environment on normative social influence and social engagement. Social influence occurs when network agents change behavior being influenced by others in the social network and this takes place in a multitude of varying disciplines. The overarching goal of this thesis is to provide a holistic understanding and develop novel techniques to explore how individuals are socially influenced, both on-line and off-line, while making shared-trips, communicating risk during extreme weather, and interacting in respective communities. The notion of influence is captured by quantifying the network effects on such decision-making and characterizing how information is exchanged between network agents. The methodologies and findings presented in this thesis will benefit different stakeholders and practitioners to determine and implement targeted policies for various user groups in regular, special, and extreme events based on their social network characteristics, properties, activities, and interactions

In the Wake of the Storm: Environment, Disaster, and Race After Katrina

Studies evidence of environmental disparities by which poor and minority communities are disproportionately exposed to disasters, are less prepared, and have less access to relief agencies. Makes recommendations for preparedness and environmental justice

Evacuation Behavior of Households Facing Compound Hurricane-Pandemic Threats

This study examines households\u27 prospective evacuation behavior during a hurricane-pandemic compound threat. Data from a 2020 survey of coastal Virginia households help answer two questions: (1) What factors associated with the threat and impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and hurricanes influence prospective evacuation behavior of households during a compound hurricane-pandemic event? (2) What are the equity implications for emergency management policies and practices to support evacuation and sheltering during a compound hurricane-pandemic event? Households in the sample were split between those who stated they would evacuate away from the at-risk region and who would stay. Greater household vulnerability to hurricanes and COVID-19 and having sufficient financial resources increase likelihood of evacuation. Higher income households were more likely to have resources to evacuate and less likely to suffer financial consequences from a hurricane or pandemic. Racial minorities are more vulnerable to the pandemic and face greater resource challenges for evacuating

Development of a Mode and Destination Type Joint Choice Model for Hurricane Evacuation

Since Hurricane Katrina, transit evacuation service has been seen to serve critical needs in affected cities and an increasing number of hurricanes have struck the east coast where more people rely on public transportation to evacuate. Thus, it is important to model mode choice in evacuation for a better estimation of evacuation transit demand. In this study, a joint mode and destination type choice model was estimated based on multiple post-storm behavioral surveys from the northeastern seaboard to the Gulf coast. A Nested Logit model specification was used to estimate this joint choice model. The estimated model showed significant linkage between mode and destination type choice, which validated the choice of a nested structure for the model. Selected variables include both household and zonal characteristics, reflecting the attributes of alternatives, the characteristics of households, and the interactions between them. Almost all the selected variables are significant at a confidence level of 95%. The estimated model was then applied in different cases, where study area, study period, or zonal unit is different. Generally, it produced small prediction errors in most cases. To find out which factors (i.e. study area and zonal unit) have the greatest impact on model transferability, prediction errors were compared between cases. Overall, the findings of this study provide insight into the factors affecting mode and destination type choice of residents during hurricane evacuation. It also provides discussion on model transferability in applications with different characteristics

Public Response to a Catastrophic Southern California Earthquake: A Sociological Perspective

This paper describes a hypothetical scenario of public response to a large regional earthquake on the southern section of the San Andreas Fault. Conclusive social and behavioral science research over decades has established that the behavior of individuals in disaster is, on the whole, controlled, rational, and adaptive, despite popular misperceptions that people who experience a disaster are dependent upon and problematic for organized response agencies. We applied this knowledge to portray the response of people impacted by the earthquake focusing on actions they will take during and immediately following the cessation of the shaking including: immediate response, search and rescue, gaining situational awareness through information seeking, making decisions about evacuation and interacting with organized responders. Our most general conclusion is that the actions of ordinary people in this earthquake scenario comprised the bulk of the initial response effort, particularly in those areas isolated for lengthy periods of time following the earthquake