The effect of lockup and persuasion on online investment decisions: an experimental study in ICOs

Many firms use social media (SM) to solicit online investments. In this study, we examine the interaction between SM attributes and online-investment attributes to determine how this interaction shapes users’ investment decisions. Specifically, we investigate initial coin offerings (ICOs) as an application domain of distributed ledger technology for peer-to-peer investment. We use signaling theory to develop a context-specific explanation for how the interplay of persuasion signals found in SM and technology-enforced lockups shapes individuals’ ICO investment decisions. To evaluate this interplay, we conducted a 2 × 2 factorial experiment with 473 participants. The results show that when an investment does not require a technology-enforced lockup, persuasion signals encourage investments in ICOs; however, when an investment requires a technology-enforced lockup, persuasion signals do not affect investments in ICOs. Furthermore, our analyses suggest that combining a technology-enforced lockup and persuasion signals reduces the ICO’s plausibility. This is the first study to investigate how the willingness to invest in ICOs is influenced by the relationship between technology-enforced lockups and persuasion signals. The findings have practical implications for individuals attempting to make sound decisions on ICO investments, policymakers regulating online investments, and firms seeking to attract investors

Comparing the Performance of Initial Coin Offerings to Crowdfunded Equity Ventures

Uncertainty in markets increases the likelihood of market failure due to volatility and suboptimal functioning. While initial coin offerings (ICOs) and crowdfunded equity (CFE) offerings may improve functioning in growing markets, there is a lack of knowledge and understanding pertaining to the relative efficiency and behavior of ICO markets compared to CFE markets, potentially perpetuating and thwarting the various communities they are intended to serve. The purpose of this correlational study was to compare a group of ICOs with a group of CFE offerings to identify predictive factors of funding outcomes related to both capital offering types. Efficient market hypothesis was the study’s theoretical foundation, and analysis of variance was used to answer the research question, which examined whether capital offering type predicted the amount of funds raised while controlling for access to the offering companies’ secondary control factors: historical financial data, pro forma financial projections, detailed product descriptions, video of product demonstrations, company website, company history, company leadership, and company investors. Relying on a random sample of 115 campaigns (84 ICOs and 31 CFE) from websites ICOdrops.com, localstake.com, fundable.com, and mainvest.com, results showed differences in mean funds raised between CFEs and ICOs ($346,075 compared to$4,756,464, respectively). ANOVA results showed no single secondary control factors and only one two-factor interaction (company leadership and company investors) influenced mean funds raised. This study may contribute to positive social change by informing best practices among market participants including entrepreneurs, regulators, scholars, and investors

Comparing the Performance of Initial Coin Offerings to Crowdfunded Equity Ventures

Uncertainty in markets increases the likelihood of market failure due to volatility and suboptimal functioning. While initial coin offerings (ICOs) and crowdfunded equity (CFE) offerings may improve functioning in growing markets, there is a lack of knowledge and understanding pertaining to the relative efficiency and behavior of ICO markets compared to CFE markets, potentially perpetuating and thwarting the various communities they are intended to serve. The purpose of this correlational study was to compare a group of ICOs with a group of CFE offerings to identify predictive factors of funding outcomes related to both capital offering types. Efficient market hypothesis was the study’s theoretical foundation, and analysis of variance was used to answer the research question, which examined whether capital offering type predicted the amount of funds raised while controlling for access to the offering companies’ secondary control factors: historical financial data, pro forma financial projections, detailed product descriptions, video of product demonstrations, company website, company history, company leadership, and company investors. Relying on a random sample of 115 campaigns (84 ICOs and 31 CFE) from websites ICOdrops.com, localstake.com, fundable.com, and mainvest.com, results showed differences in mean funds raised between CFEs and ICOs ($346,075 compared to$4,756,464, respectively). ANOVA results showed no single secondary control factors and only one two-factor interaction (company leadership and company investors) influenced mean funds raised. This study may contribute to positive social change by informing best practices among market participants including entrepreneurs, regulators, scholars, and investors

Success determinants of Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs)

Fintech companies have been surging taking advantage of the current technological developments and have been challenging traditional incumbents. Disruptive ventures financed by cryptocurrencies are one of the main topics related to technological developments, capable of completely eliminating the need for a third-party intervenient and reducing the gap between investors and promoters. The purpose of this thesis is to identify the main impacts that fintech companies have on the business models of traditional banking/financial institutions and to focus on the success factors of disruptive and highly technological Initial Coin Offerings (ICO) projects, particularly, on the human capital factors. In order to do that, the thesis is divided into three main studies, each one of them focused on a particular topic. The methods used in this thesis are mixed as a qualitative approach was adopted through a systematic literature review, and a quantitative approach was performed by building several econometric models. This thesis concludes that fintechs cannot be considered complete substitutes to the traditional services yet. Nevertheless, they are posing incumbents challenges and exposing the weaknesses of their business models. The banking/financial institutions need to urgently adapt their business models in order to remain competitive, and most of them already accepted this challenge. The ICO projects also present a disruption and a step forward in the democratization of the financial investments. This study identified a wide range of success factors influencing the outcome of an ICO project. The success factors might be divided into categories according to their scope: (i) project; (ii) campaign; (iii) social networks; (iv) human capital. It is concluded that several factors have a real impact in the outcome of the projects, such as, the existence of financing thresholds, the quality of the whitepaper, the existence of a secondary market and bonus schemes, the price of the tokens, the price of cryptocurrencies, the good management of social networks, the promoters’ geographic location, their networks, the size of the teams, external ratings attributed to the project and to the team. In terms of theoretical contributions, this study added a contribution to the still scarce literature on ICO projects and to two theories, namely, the signaling theory and Human Capital Theory (HCT). The managerial implications concern mainly the assessment of the quality of a project by the investors and the need for regulation by supervisors.As empresas fintech surgiram tomando partido dos atuais desenvolvimentos tecnológicos tendo desafiado os atuais atores do mercado. Projetos disruptivos financiados nomeadamente por cripto moedas são um dos tópicos relacionados com o desenvolvimento tecnológico e capazes de eliminar a necessidade para o envolvimento de terceiros na mediação financeira reduzindo assim o hiato entre investidores e promotores. O propósito desta tese é o de identificar os principais impactos que as empresas fintech têm nos modelos de negócio das empresas financeiras já estabelecidos no mercado. Terá um foco especial nos fatores de sucesso dos projetos baseados na blockchain denominados Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs), em particular, os fatores relacionados com o capital humano. Assim, a tese está dividida em três estudos principais com focos diferentes. A metodologia usada nesta tese é de métodos mistos: uma metodologia qualitativa foi usada na revisão sistemática da literatura; e uma metodologia quantitativa foi usada na construção e estimação de modelos econométricos, tendo por base microdados de 428 projetos de ICOs do setor bancário. Esta tese conclui que as fintechs não podem ser ainda consideradas substitutos dos serviços financeiros tradicionais. Contudo, estas colocam desafios e expõem as fraquezas dos modelos de negócio tradicionais. A indústria financeira necessita de adaptar urgentemente os seus modelos de negócio para se manter competitiva. Este desafio já foi aceite por várias empresas. Os ICOs causam disrupção e são um grande passo para a democratização dos investimentos financeiros. Este estudo identificou um conjunto alargado de fatores de sucesso que influenciam o resultado final destes projetos. Os fatores podem agrupar-se em categorias: (i) projeto; (ii) campanha; (iii) redes sociais; (iv) capital humano. Os fatores que esta tese comprovou contribuírem para o sucesso de um projeto são os seguintes: pré-existência de limites de financiamento; a qualidade do whitepaper; a existência de um mercado secundário e esquema de bonificações; o preço dos tokens; o preço das cripto moedas; a boa gestão de redes sociais; a localização geográfica e a rede de contactos dos promotores; o tamanho das equipas; ratings externos atribuídos ao projeto e à equipa.No que diz respeito às contribuições teóricas, esta tese contribuiu para a escassa literatura no tema dos ICOs e para duas teorias, nomeadamente a siganling theory e Human Capital Theory (HCT). As contribuições práticas deste estudo relacionam-se com a avaliação da qualidade do projeto e a necessidade premente dos reguladores tomarem medidas nestes mercados