How long will it take? Power biases time predictions

People tend to underestimate the time it takes to accomplish tasks. This bias known as the planning fallacy derives from the tendency to focus attention too narrowly on the envisaged goal and to ignore additional information that could make predictions more accurate and less biased. Drawing on recent research showing that power induces attentional focus, four studies tested the hypothesis that power strengthens the tendency to underestimate future task completion time. Across a range of task domains, and using multiple operationalizations of power, including actual control over outcomes (Study 1), priming (Studies 2 and 3), and individual differences (Study 4), power consistently led to more optimistic and less accurate time predictions. Support was found for the role of attentional focus as an underlying mechanism for those effects. Differences in optimism, self-efficacy, and mood did not contribute to the greater bias in powerful individuals’ forecasts. We discuss the implications of these findings for institutional decision processes and occupational health

How long will it take? Conceptualizing the temporal dynamics of energy transitions

Transitioning away from our current global energy system is of paramount importance. The speed at which a transition can take place—its timing, or temporal dynamics—is a critical element of consideration. This study therefore investigates the issue of time in global and national energy transitions by asking: What does the mainstream academic literature suggest about the time scale of energy transitions? Additionally, what does some of the more recent empirical data related to transitions say, or challenge, about conventional views? In answering these questions, the article presents a “mainstream” view of energy transitions as long, protracted affairs, often taking decades to centuries to occur. However, the article then offers some empirical evidence that the predominant view of timing may not always be supported by the evidence. With this in mind, the final part of the article argues for more transparent conceptions and definitions of energy transitions, and it asks for analysis that recognizes the causal complexity underlying them

Pitfalls and problems in analysing and interpreting the seasonality of faunal remains

Seasonality studies are an important tool in archaeological research, as long as methods are correctly applied. This paper aims to highlight problems which arise in seasonality studies due to a lack of understanding by archaeologists of animal behaviour and biology, and from this, how erroneous archaeological interpretations are then formed. The first point will show how myths regarding animal behaviour can occur and become firmly entrenched in the literature and the minds of archaeologists. The second point will outline how false assumptions can be made concerning reasons for the exploitation of certain species. Finally, it will be demonstrated that when using scientific methods, such as analysis of incremental growth, a thorough understanding of the biology of the species in question is essential

Letter Written by Saidee R. Leach to her Son, Navy Ensign Douglas Leach, Dated October 6, 1942

Dear Douglas: This letter will be written in the shop, taken home on the chance that there may be one from you there that requires an answer or two, then Dad will mail it at the corner so you should receive it on Wednesday. It seems a long time since I have written to you or since we have heard from you but we know just how every minute of your time is taken and as Aunt Eleanor telephoned me that she had had a letter from you, we have heard indirectly..