Crop Yield Prediction Using Gradient Boosting Neural Network Regression Model

The finest utility sector is agriculture, especially in emerging nations like India. Utilizing historical data in agriculture can change the context of decision-making and increase farmer productivity. Approximately a part of India's population is employed in agriculture, however this sector contributes just 14% of the country's GDP. This can be explained in part by farmers not making sufficient decisions on yield forecast. By examining numerous climatic elements, such as rainfall, and land characteristics, such as soil type and ground water salinity, as well as historical records of crops cultivated, the suggested machine learning technique tries to estimate the agricultural yield for a certain location. Finally, we anticipate that our proposed Machine Learning Gradient Boosting Neural Network Regression (Grow Net) model was predicting the accurate yield. Finally our system is expected to predict the yield based on dataset we have taken. We were compared our proposed algorithm with various Machine Learning algorithms such as Random Forest, Support Vector Machine, KNN, Multi-layer Perceptron Regressor, Gradient Boosting Regressor and results shows that proposed was given best RMSE ,MAE and R2 value

An update on statistical boosting in biomedicine

Statistical boosting algorithms have triggered a lot of research during the last decade. They combine a powerful machine-learning approach with classical statistical modelling, offering various practical advantages like automated variable selection and implicit regularization of effect estimates. They are extremely flexible, as the underlying base-learners (regression functions defining the type of effect for the explanatory variables) can be combined with any kind of loss function (target function to be optimized, defining the type of regression setting). In this review article, we highlight the most recent methodological developments on statistical boosting regarding variable selection, functional regression and advanced time-to-event modelling. Additionally, we provide a short overview on relevant applications of statistical boosting in biomedicine

Building thermal load prediction through shallow machine learning and deep learning

Building thermal load prediction informs the optimization of cooling plant and thermal energy storage. Physics-based prediction models of building thermal load are constrained by the model and input complexity. In this study, we developed 12 data-driven models (7 shallow learning, 2 deep learning, and 3 heuristic methods) to predict building thermal load and compared shallow machine learning and deep learning. The 12 prediction models were compared with the measured cooling demand. It was found XGBoost (Extreme Gradient Boost) and LSTM (Long Short Term Memory) provided the most accurate load prediction in the shallow and deep learning category, and both outperformed the best baseline model, which uses the previous day's data for prediction. Then, we discussed how the prediction horizon and input uncertainty would influence the load prediction accuracy. Major conclusions are twofold: first, LSTM performs well in short-term prediction (1 h ahead) but not in long term prediction (24 h ahead), because the sequential information becomes less relevant and accordingly not so useful when the prediction horizon is long. Second, the presence of weather forecast uncertainty deteriorates XGBoost's accuracy and favors LSTM, because the sequential information makes the model more robust to input uncertainty. Training the model with the uncertain rather than accurate weather data could enhance the model's robustness. Our findings have two implications for practice. First, LSTM is recommended for short-term load prediction given that weather forecast uncertainty is unavoidable. Second, XGBoost is recommended for long term prediction, and the model should be trained with the presence of input uncertainty

Energy Consumption Forecasts by Gradient Boosting Regression Trees

Recent years have seen an increasing interest in developing robust, accurate and possibly fast forecasting methods for both energy production and consumption. Traditional approaches based on linear architectures are not able to fully model the relationships between variables, particularly when dealing with many features. We propose a Gradient-Boosting–Machine-based framework to forecast the demand of mixed customers of an energy dispatching company, aggregated according to their location within the seven Italian electricity market zones. The main challenge is to provide precise one-day-ahead predictions, despite the most recent data being two months old. This requires exogenous regressors, e.g., as historical features of part of the customers and air temperature, to be incorporated in the scheme and tailored to the specific case. Numerical simulations are conducted, resulting in a MAPE of 5–15% according to the market zone. The Gradient Boosting performs significantly better when compared to classical statistical models for time series, such as ARMA, unable to capture holidays

California Almond Yield Prediction at the Orchard Level With a Machine Learning Approach.

California's almond growers face challenges with nitrogen management as new legislatively mandated nitrogen management strategies for almond have been implemented. These regulations require that growers apply nitrogen to meet, but not exceed, the annual N demand for crop and tree growth and nut production. To accurately predict seasonal nitrogen demand, therefore, growers need to estimate block-level almond yield early in the growing season so that timely N management decisions can be made. However, methods to predict almond yield are not currently available. To fill this gap, we have developed statistical models using the Stochastic Gradient Boosting, a machine learning approach, for early season yield projection and mid-season yield update over individual orchard blocks. We collected yield records of 185 orchards, dating back to 2005, from the major almond growers in the Central Valley of California. A large set of variables were extracted as predictors, including weather and orchard characteristics from remote sensing imagery. Our results showed that the predicted orchard-level yield agreed well with the independent yield records. For both the early season (March) and mid-season (June) predictions, a coefficient of determination (R 2) of 0.71, and a ratio of performance to interquartile distance (RPIQ) of 2.6 were found on average. We also identified several key determinants of yield based on the modeling results. Almond yield increased dramatically with the orchard age until about 7 years old in general, and the higher long-term mean maximum temperature during April-June enhanced the yield in the southern orchards, while a larger amount of precipitation in March reduced the yield, especially in northern orchards. Remote sensing metrics such as annual maximum vegetation indices were also dominant variables for predicting the yield potential. While these results are promising, further refinement is needed; the availability of larger data sets and incorporation of additional variables and methodologies will be required for the model to be used as a fertilization decision support tool for growers. Our study has demonstrated the potential of automatic almond yield prediction to assist growers to manage N adaptively, comply with mandated requirements, and ensure industry sustainability