High-Dimensional Stochastic Design Optimization by Adaptive-Sparse Polynomial Dimensional Decomposition

This paper presents a novel adaptive-sparse polynomial dimensional decomposition (PDD) method for stochastic design optimization of complex systems. The method entails an adaptive-sparse PDD approximation of a high-dimensional stochastic response for statistical moment and reliability analyses; a novel integration of the adaptive-sparse PDD approximation and score functions for estimating the first-order design sensitivities of the statistical moments and failure probability; and standard gradient-based optimization algorithms. New analytical formulae are presented for the design sensitivities that are simultaneously determined along with the moments or the failure probability. Numerical results stemming from mathematical functions indicate that the new method provides more computationally efficient design solutions than the existing methods. Finally, stochastic shape optimization of a jet engine bracket with 79 variables was performed, demonstrating the power of the new method to tackle practical engineering problems.Comment: 18 pages, 2 figures, to appear in Sparse Grids and Applications--Stuttgart 2014, Lecture Notes in Computational Science and Engineering 109, edited by J. Garcke and D. Pfl\"{u}ger, Springer International Publishing, 201

Gaussian process hyper-parameter estimation using parallel asymptotically independent Markov sampling

Gaussian process emulators of computationally expensive computer codes provide fast statistical approximations to model physical processes. The training of these surrogates depends on the set of design points chosen to run the simulator. Due to computational cost, such training set is bound to be limited and quantifying the resulting uncertainty in the hyper-parameters of the emulator by uni-modal distributions is likely to induce bias. In order to quantify this uncertainty, this paper proposes a computationally efficient sampler based on an extension of Asymptotically Independent Markov Sampling, a recently developed algorithm for Bayesian inference. Structural uncertainty of the emulator is obtained as a by-product of the Bayesian treatment of the hyper-parameters. Additionally, the user can choose to perform stochastic optimisation to sample from a neighbourhood of the Maximum a Posteriori estimate, even in the presence of multimodality. Model uncertainty is also acknowledged through numerical stabilisation measures by including a nugget term in the formulation of the probability model. The efficiency of the proposed sampler is illustrated in examples where multi-modal distributions are encountered. For the purpose of reproducibility, further development, and use in other applications the code used to generate the examples is freely available for download at https://github.com/agarbuno/paims_codesComment: Computational Statistics \& Data Analysis, Volume 103, November 201

Analytical reliability calculation of linear dynamical systems in higher dimensions

The recent application of reliability analysis to controller synthesis has created the need for a computationally efficient method for the estimation of the first excursion probabilities for linear dynamical systems in higher dimensions. Simulation methods cannot provide an adequate solution to this specific application, which involves numerical optimization of the system reliability with respect to the controller parameters, because the total computational time needed is still prohibitive. Instead, an analytical approach is presented in this paper. The problem reduces to the calculation of the conditional upcrossing rate at each surface of the failure boundary. The correlation between upcrossings of the failure surface for the different failure events may be addressed by the introduction of a multi-dimensional integral. An efficient algorithm is adopted for the numerical calculation of this integral. Also, the problem of approximation of the conditional upcrossing rate is discussed. For the latter there is no known theoretical solution. Three of the semi-empirical corrections that have been proposed previously for scalar processes are compared and it is shown that the correction should be based on the bandwidth characteristics of the system. Finally, examples that verify the validity of the analytical approximations for systems in higher dimensions are discussed