Altimetry, gravimetry, GPS and viscoelastic modeling data for the joint inversion for glacial isostatic adjustment in Antarctica (ESA STSE Project REGINA)

The poorly known correction for the ongoing deformation of the solid Earth caused by glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) is a major uncertainty in determining the mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet from measurements of satellite gravimetry and to a lesser extent satellite altimetry. In the past decade, much progress has been made in consistently modeling ice sheet and solid Earth interactions; however, forward-modeling solutions of GIA in Antarctica remain uncertain due to the sparsity of constraints on the ice sheet evolution, as well as the Earth's rheological properties. An alternative approach towards estimating GIA is the joint inversion of multiple satellite data – namely, satellite gravimetry, satellite altimetry and GPS, which reflect, with different sensitivities, trends in recent glacial changes and GIA. Crucial to the success of this approach is the accuracy of the space-geodetic data sets. Here, we present reprocessed rates of surface-ice elevation change (Envisat/Ice, Cloud,and land Elevation Satellite, ICESat; 2003–2009), gravity field change (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, GRACE; 2003–2009) and bedrock uplift (GPS; 1995–2013). The data analysis is complemented by the forward modeling of viscoelastic response functions to disc load forcing, allowing us to relate GIA-induced surface displacements with gravity changes for different rheological parameters of the solid Earth. The data and modeling results presented here are available in the PANGAEA database (https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.875745). The data sets are the input streams for the joint inversion estimate of present-day ice-mass change and GIA, focusing on Antarctica. However, the methods, code and data provided in this paper can be used to solve other problems, such as volume balances of the Antarctic ice sheet, or can be applied to other geographical regions in the case of the viscoelastic response functions. This paper presents the first of two contributions summarizing the work carried out within a European Space Agency funded study: Regional glacial isostatic adjustment and CryoSat elevation rate corrections in Antarctica (REGINA)

Mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2018

The Greenland Ice Sheet has been a major contributor to global sea-level rise in recent decades1,2, and it is expected to continue to be so3. Although increases in glacier flow4-6 and surface melting7-9 have been driven by oceanic10-12 and atmospheric13,14 warming, the magnitude and trajectory of the ice sheet's mass imbalance remain uncertain. Here we compare and combine 26 individual satellite measurements of changes in the ice sheet's volume, flow and gravitational potential to produce a reconciled estimate of its mass balance. The ice sheet was close to a state of balance in the 1990s, but annual losses have risen since then, peaking at 345 ± 66 billion tonnes per year in 2011. In all, Greenland lost 3,902 ± 342 billion tonnes of ice between 1992 and 2018, causing the mean sea level to rise by 10.8 ± 0.9 millimetres. Using three regional climate models, we show that the reduced surface mass balance has driven 1,964 ± 565 billion tonnes (50.3 per cent) of the ice loss owing to increased meltwater runoff. The remaining 1,938 ± 541 billion tonnes (49.7 per cent) of ice loss was due to increased glacier dynamical imbalance, which rose from 46 ± 37 billion tonnes per year in the 1990s to 87 ± 25 billion tonnes per year since then. The total rate of ice loss slowed to 222 ± 30 billion tonnes per year between 2013 and 2017, on average, as atmospheric circulation favoured cooler conditions15 and ocean temperatures fell at the terminus of Jakobshavn Isbræ16. Cumulative ice losses from Greenland as a whole have been close to the rates predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for their high-end climate warming scenario17, which forecast an additional 70 to 130 millimetres of global sea-level rise by 2100 compared with their central estimate

Mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2018

In recent decades, the Greenland Ice Sheet has been a major contributor to global sea-level rise1,2, and it is expected to be so in the future3. Although increases in glacier flow4–6 and surface melting7–9 have been driven by oceanic10–12 and atmospheric13,14 warming, the degree and trajectory of today’s imbalance remain uncertain. Here we compare and combine 26 individual satellite measurements of changes in the ice sheet’s volume, flow and gravitational potential to produce a reconciled estimate of its mass balance. Although the ice sheet was close to a state of balance in the 1990s, annual losses have risen since then, peaking at 335 ± 62 billion tonnes per year in 2011. In all, Greenland lost 3,800 ± 339 billion tonnes of ice between 1992 and 2018, causing the mean sea level to rise by 10.6 ± 0.9 millimetres. Using three regional climate models, we show that reduced surface mass balance has driven 1,971 ± 555 billion tonnes (52%) of the ice loss owing to increased meltwater runoff. The remaining 1,827 ± 538 billion tonnes (48%) of ice loss was due to increased glacier discharge, which rose from 41 ± 37 billion tonnes per year in the 1990s to 87 ± 25 billion tonnes per year since then. Between 2013 and 2017, the total rate of ice loss slowed to 217 ± 32 billion tonnes per year, on average, as atmospheric circulation favoured cooler conditions15 and as ocean temperatures fell at the terminus of Jakobshavn Isbræ16. Cumulative ice losses from Greenland as a whole have been close to the IPCC’s predicted rates for their high-end climate warming scenario17, which forecast an additional 50 to 120 millimetres of global sea-level rise by 2100 when compared to their central estimate

An assessment of forward and inverse GIA solutions for Antarctica

In this work we assess the most recent estimates of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) for Antarctica, including those from both forward and inverse methods. The assessment is based on a comparison of the estimated uplift rates with a set of elastic-corrected GPS vertical velocities. These have been observed from an extensive GPS network and computed using data over the period 2009-2014. We find systematic underestimations of the observed uplift rates in both inverse and forward methods over specific regions of Antarctica characterized by low mantle viscosities and thin lithosphere, such as the northern Antarctic Peninsula and the Amundsen Sea Embayment, where its recent ice discharge history is likely to be playing a role in current GIA. Uplift estimates for regions where many GIA models have traditionally placed their uplift maxima, such as the margins of Filchner-Ronne and Ross ice shelves, are found to be overestimated. GIA estimates show large variability over the interior of East Antarc tica which results in increased uncertainties on the ice-sheet mass balance derived from gravimetry methods

다중 인공위성 센서 및 기후 모델을 활용한 남극 얼음 질량 변화의 이해

학위논문(박사) -- 서울대학교대학원 : 사범대학 과학교육과(지구과학전공), 2021.8. 서기원.지난 수 십 년 간, 남극의 얼음 질량 변화에 대한 우리의 지식은 인공위성 관측과 지구 물리 모델링 기술의 발전에 의해 비약적으로 향상되어 왔다. 인공위성 관측은 진행중인 남극 얼음 질량 손실과 가속화를 설명할 수 있는 메커니즘들을 지속적으로 제안하고 있으며, 이들을 고려한 모델링은 미래에 진행될 남극 빙하 손실을 정량적으로 산출하고 있다. 현재의 관측과 모델링 모두는 남극의 얼음 배출이 향후에 점차 가속화 될 것이라고 예측하고 있다. 이러한 증가율이 지속된다면, 남극은 가까운 미래에 해수면 상승을 유발시키는 첫번째 기여자가 될 것이다. 남극에서 배출될 빙하의 질량을 정확하게 예측하기 위해서는 진행중인 얼음 질량 손실에 대한 지속적인 관찰과 함께, 그것의 원인 기작을 규명하는 일이 요구된다. 남극의 얼음 질량 변화는 각 빙하마다 비균질하게 발생하고 있으며, 개별 빙하의 동력학은 대기와 해양 순환, 그리고 고체 지구의 변동성 등 다양한 지구 시스템 구성 요소들의 영향을 받고 있다. 각 요소들이 얼음 질량 변화에 미치는 물리적 기작을 보다 정확히 이해하고, 미래 질량 변화 예측의 불확실성을 해소하기 위해서는 이들을 총 망라하는 다학제간 연구가 필요하다. 이러한 흐름의 일환으로, 본 학위 논문에서는 기후 모델들과 원격 탐사 데이터를 활용하여 남극의 얼음 질량 변화를 분석한 세 개의 연구들이 수행되었다. 첫번째 연구는 얼음 질량 변화와 강설량의 관계를 조사한 것으로, 지구 시스템 내의 기권과 빙권 간의 상호작용에 대해 다루고 있다. 조사 결과, 최근 수 십 년 간 발생한 남극의 강설은 얼음 질량 변화의 경년 변동성의 대부분을 설명하고 있었으며, 동 시기 진행된 남극 얼음 질량 손실의 가속화의 약 30%가 강설량 변화의 기여임을 발견하였다. 또한 추가적인 통계분석을 통해, 이러한 강설량 변화가 남반구 극진동 (Southern Annular Mode, SAM) 이라고 불리우는 남반구 고위도의 주기적 기후변화와 밀접한 관련이 있음도 발견하였다. 두 번째 연구에서는 남극 얼음 질량 변화 관측의 해상도를 높이고자 하였다. 이는 빙하 동력학 모델들의 초기 조건을 단일 빙하와 같은 작은 규모에서 효과적으로 제약하기 위한 목적이다. 해상도 증가를 위해, 인공위성 중력계와 고도계 관측 데이터를 융합하는 새로운 선형 역산법을 개발하였다. 역산법의 적용 결과, 남극 대륙 전체의 얼음 질량 변화 (2003-2016) 를 약 27km의 높은 공간 해상도와 함께 한 달의 짧은 샘플링 간격으로 확인할 수 있는 데이터를 산출하였다. 이 연구에서 만든 데이터는 인공위성 중력계나 고도계를 독립적으로 활용하는 것에 비해 더 높은 정확도를 가질 것이라 추측된다. 예를 들어, 새로운 데이터를 활용하여 계산한 남극의 빙하 별 질량 변화는 각 센서를 따로 활용하는 것에 비해, Input-Output 방법이라는 독립적인 관측 결과와 더 높은 유사성을 보이고 있다. 세 번째 연구에서는 남극 빙하 하부의 고체 지구가 유발하는 후빙기 반동 (Glacial Isostatic Adjustment, GIA) 효과를 추정하고자 하였다. 이는 현재의 기술로 관측이 불가능한 GIA 효과가 얼음 질량 관측에 미치는 불확실성를 경감시키기 위한 목적으로 수행되었다. GIA효과를 분리시키기 위해, 앞서 수행한 고해상도 질량 추산 데이터와 다수의 기후모델을 서로 비교하였다. 그 결과, 서남극 로스 빙붕 근처에 위치한 캠 빙류 (Kamb Ice Stream) 하부의 GIA 효과가 효과적으로 분리될 수 있었다. 계산 값을 선행 연구에서 개발된 후빙기 반동 모델들과 비교한 결과, 대부분의 모델들이 캠 빙류의 후빙기 반동을 과대추정하고 있음도 발견하였다. 현존하는 다수의 GIA 모델들에서 캠 빙류 하부의 후빙기 반동 효과가 남극에서 가장 높게 모의되고 있다는 사실을 감안할 때, 이 발견은 모델들의 불확실성을 재고한다는 점에서 남극 얼음 질량 변화에 대한 기존 관측 결과에 시사하는 바가 크다. 세 연구의 결과를 종합한 남극 빙하 배출량 추정과 그에 따른 해수면 상승 예측이 논문의 마지막 장에 제시되어 있다. 이 결과는 대기와 고체 지구의 변동성을 고려함과 동시에, 개별 빙하의 해수면 상승 기여도를 예측하였다는 점에서 이전의 연구들과 차별된다.Over the past few decades, understanding of ice mass changes in Antarctica has been greatly improved by advances in satellite observation and geophysical modeling techniques. Satellite observations have clearly shown evidence of ongoing Antarctic ice mass loss, and numerical models have quantitatively estimated future ice mass loss. Both observation and modeling have found that Antarctic ice mass loss is accelerating and this would continue in the future. Within this century, Antarctica is expected to be the most important contributor to sea-level rise. To accurately predict Antarctic ice mass loss, continuous Antarctic observation is required, and the cause of Antarctic ice mass loss should be understood. Ice mass variations over Antarctic glaciers are determined by many factors, and their magnitudes differ significantly from glaciers to glaciers. Understanding ice mass variations at individual glaciers are important to project future Antarctic ice mass losses and subsequent sea level rise. Because glacier mass balances are affected by different physical mechanisms associated with atmospheric and oceanic circulations and solid earth deformation, multidisciplinary studies have been required for the accurate understanding of the interaction between Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) and the entire Earth system. In this dissertation, three studies are carried out using multiple climate models and remote sensing data to understand the current status of glacier mass balance in AIS. The first study examines the role of precipitation in AIS ice mass changes, identifying the interaction between atmosphere and cryosphere. It is found that the precipitation accounts for most of the inter-annual ice mass variability in recent decades and about 30% of the acceleration in contemporary ice mass loss can be explained by precipitation decrease. EOF analysis suggests that such precipitation variability is closely related to periodic climate change in the high altitude of the Southern Hemisphere, named Southern Annular Mode (SAM). After removing effects associated with precipitation decrease, Antarctic ice mass loss associated with glacier dynamics can be obtained. The second study is to develop a new method to improve the spatial resolution of the Antarctic ice mass change by combining two different satellite observations. Antarctic ice mass change in higher resolution can be estimated by a new linear inversion technique using satellite altimetry and gravimetry observations together. The new method provides monthly ice mass changes (2003-2016) for all Antarctic glaciers with a spatial resolution of 27 km. The high-resolution ice mass data agree better with the ice mass change from the Input-Output method than data conventionally obtained either from gravimetry or altimetry satellite. The third study estimates the Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) effect beneath the Antarctic glaciers. This aims to minimize the GIA error in ice mass observations. By comparing the high-resolution mass estimates with multiple climate models, the GIA effect beneath the Kamb Ice Stream (which is located near the Ross Ice Shelf in West Antarctica) is estimated. The estimated GIA effect is then compared with many GIA models. It is found that most of the GIA models overestimate the GIA effect at the Kamb Ice Stream. Given that a number of models simulate the highest GIA rate beneath the Kamb Ice Stream within Antarctic glaciers, this finding has significant implications to improve the accuracy of Antarctic ice mass change by reducing the GIA uncertainty. Lastly, we aggregate the results of the three studies to project the future mass loss of Antarctic glaciers. This result is distinct from previous studies in that it provides glacial-scale projections of ice mass changes based on ice dynamic effects after removing effects of precipitation and solid earth deformation from glacial-scale ice mass observations.Chapter 1. Introduction 1 Chapter 2. Backgrounds 5 2.1 Satellite gravimetry 5 2.1.1 Overview & Principle 5 2.1.2 Estimation of surface mass densities from GRACE gravity data 6 2.1.3 Spatial filtering 8 2.2 Satellite altimetry 11 2.2.1 Overview & Principle 11 2.2.2 Laser & radar altimetry 12 2.2.3 Data types 13 2.3 Least squares inversion 14 2.3.1 Simple least squares for linear inverse problem 14 2.3.2 Application of least square inversion to GRACE data 16 Chapter 3. Surface mass balance contributions to Antarctic ice mass change investigated by climate models and GRACE gravity data 19 3.1 Introduction 19 3.2 Data & Methods 20 3.2.1 Precipitation models 20 3.2.2 EOF analysis of SMB 21 3.2.3 REOF analysis of SMB 21 3.3 AIS SMB from 1979 to 2017 23 3.4 Observation of AIS SMB 29 3.5 Implications of SMB to present-day ice mass loss in AIS 34 3.6 Conclusion 35 Chapter 4. Estimation of high-resolution Antarctic ice mass balance using satellite gravimetry and altimetry 38 4.1 Introduction 38 4.2 Data 39 4.2.1 GRACE gravity data 39 4.2.2 Satellite altimetry data 40 4.3 Methods 43 4.3.1 Forward Modeling (FM) solution 43 4.3.2 Joint estimation using constrained linear deconvolution 46 4.3.3 Uncertainties 50 4.3.3.1 Uncertainty of GRACE observation 52 4.3.3.2 Uncertainty of FM solution 52 4.3.3.3 Uncertainty of altimetry-based mass loads 54 4.3.3.4 Uncertainty of CLD solution 57 4.4 High resolution Antarctic ice mass loads 59 4.5 AIS glacier mass balance 62 4.6 Conclusion 66 Chapter 5. Estimation of GIA effect beneath the Antarctic Glacier using multiple remote sensing and climate models 68 5.1 Introduction 68 5.2 Data & Method 69 5.2.1 Method 69 5.2.2 Basin boundary 71 5.2.3 SMB models 73 5.2.4 Mass densities from GRACE data 73 5.2.5 Mass densities from satellite altimetry data 74 5.2.6 High-resolution GRACE data and its sensitivity to GIA estimates 75 5.3 Result & Discussion 77 5.3.1 Estimated mass rates 77 5.3.2 GIA mass rate beneath the KIS 80 5.4 Conclusion 81 Chapter 6. Sea-level projections 82 Chapter 7. Conclusion 86 Appendix: Glacial mass variability calculated by satellite gravimetry, altimetry, and their joint estimation 89 References 112 Abstract in Korean 122박

Constraining the mass balance of East Antarctica

We investigate the mass balance of East Antarctica for the period 2003-2013 using a Bayesian statistical framework. We combine satellite altimetry, gravimetry, and GPS with prior assumptions characterizing the underlying geophysical processes. We run three experiments based on two different assumptions to study possible solutions to the mass balance. We solve for trends in surface mass balance, ice dynamics, and glacial isostatic adjustment. The first assumption assigns low probability to ice dynamic mass loss in regions of slow flow, giving a mean dynamic trend of 17 ± 10 Gt yr-1 and a total mass imbalance of 57 ± 20 Gt yr-1. The second assumption considers a long-term dynamic thickening hypothesis and an a priori solution for surface mass balance from a regional climate model. The latter results in estimates 3 to 5 times larger for the ice dynamic trends but similar total mass imbalance. In both cases, gains in East Antarctica are smaller than losses in West Antarctica

Response of Pacific-sector Antarctic ice shelves to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation.

Satellite observations over the past two decades have revealed increasing loss of grounded ice in West Antarctica, associated with floating ice shelves that have been thinning. Thinning reduces an ice-shelf's ability to restrain grounded-ice discharge, yet our understanding of the climate processes that drive mass changes is limited. Here, we use ice-shelf height data from four satellite altimeter missions (1994-2017) to show a direct link between ice-shelf-height variability in the Antarctic Pacific sector and changes in regional atmospheric circulation driven by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. This link is strongest from Dotson to Ross ice shelves and weaker elsewhere. During intense El Niño years, height increase by accumulation exceeds the height decrease by basal melting, but net ice-shelf mass declines as basal ice loss exceeds lower-density snow gain. Our results demonstrate a substantial response of Amundsen Sea ice shelves to global and regional climate variability, with rates of change in height and mass on interannual timescales that can be comparable to the longer-term trend, and with mass changes from surface accumulation offsetting a significant fraction of the changes in basal melting. This implies that ice-shelf height and mass variability will increase as interannual atmospheric variability increases in a warming climate

Acceleration of dynamic ice loss in Antarctica from satellite gravimetry

The dynamic stability of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is one of the largest uncertainties in projections of future global sea-level rise. Essential for improving projections of the ice sheet evolution is the understanding of the ongoing trends and accelerations of mass loss in the context of ice dynamics. Here, we examine accelerations of mass change of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 2002 to 2020 using data from the GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment; 2002–2017) and its follow-on GRACE-FO (2018-present) satellite missions. By subtracting estimates of net snow accumulation provided by re-analysis data and regional climate models from GRACE/GRACE-FO mass changes, we isolate variations in ice-dynamic discharge and compare them to direct measurements based on the remote sensing of the surface-ice velocity (2002–2017). We show that variations in the GRACE/GRACE-FO time series are modulated by variations in regional snow accumulation caused by large-scale atmospheric circulation. We show for the first time that, after removal of these surface effects, accelerations of ice-dynamic discharge from GRACE/GRACE-FO agree well with those independently derived from surface-ice velocities. For 2002–2020, we recover a discharge acceleration of -5.3 ± 2.2 Gt yr−2 for the entire ice sheet; these increasing losses originate mainly in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Sea Embayment regions (68%), with additional significant contributions from Dronning Maud Land (18%) and the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf region (13%). Under the assumption that the recovered rates and accelerations of mass loss persisted independent of any external forcing, Antarctica would contribute 7.6 ± 2.9 cm to global mean sea-level rise by the year 2100, more than two times the amount of 2.9 ± 0.6 cm obtained by linear extrapolation of current GRACE/GRACE-FO mass loss trends