A Comparison of Perturbed Initial Conditions and Multiphysics Ensembles in a Severe Weather Episode in Spain

Ensembles of numerical model forecasts are of interest to operational early warning forecasters as the spread of the ensemble provides an indication of the uncertainty of the alerts, and the mean value is deemed to outperform the forecasts of the individual models. This paper explores two ensembles on a severe weather episode in Spain, aiming to ascertain the relative usefulness of each one. One ensemble uses sensible choices of physical parameterizations (precipitation microphysics, land surface physics, and cumulus physics) while the other follows a perturbed initial conditions approach. The results show that, depending on the parameterizations, large differences can be expected in terms of storm location, spatial structure of the precipitation field, and rain intensity. It is also found that the spread of the perturbed initial conditions ensemble is smaller than the dispersion due to physical parameterizations. This confirms that in severe weather situations operational forecasts should address moist physics deficiencies to realize the full benefits of the ensemble approach, in addition to optimizing initial conditions. The results also provide insights into differences in simulations arising from ensembles of weather models using several combinations of different physical parameterizations

An acoustic view of ocean mixing

Knowledge of the parameter K (turbulent diffusivity/"mixing intensity") is a key to understand transport processes of matter and energy in the ocean. Especially the almost vertical component of K across the ocean stratification (diapycnal diffusivity) is vital for research on biogeochemical cycles or greenhouse gas budgets. Recent boost in precision of water velocity data that can be obtained from vessel-mounted acoustic instruments (vmADCP) allows identifying ocean regions of elevated diapycnal diffusivity during research cruises - in high horizontal resolution and without extra ship time needed. This contribution relates acoustic data from two cruises in the Tropical North East Atlantic Oxygen Minimum Zone to simultaneous field observations of diapycnal diffusivity: pointwise measurements by a microstructure profiler as well as one integrative value from a large scale Tracer Release Experiment

A comparison of perturbed initial conditions and multiphysics ensembles in a severe weather episode in Spain

Ensembles of numerical model forecasts are of interest to operational early warning forecasters as the spread of the ensemble provides an indication of the uncertainty of the alerts, and the mean value is deemed to outperform the forecasts of the individual models. This paper explores two ensembles on a severe weather episode in Spain, aiming to ascertain the relative usefulness of each one. One ensemble uses sensible choices of physical parameterizations (precipitation microphysics, land surface physics, and cumulus physics) while the other follows a perturbed initial conditions approach. The results show that, depending on the parameterizations, large differences can be expected in terms of storm location, spatial structure of the precipitation field, and rain intensity. It is also found that the spread of the perturbed initial conditions ensemble is smaller than the dispersion due to physical parameterizations. This confirms that in severe weather situations operational forecasts should address moist physics deficiencies to realize the full benefits of the ensemble approach, in addition to optimizing initial conditions. The results also provide insights into differences in simulations arising from ensembles of weather models using several combinations of different physical parameterizations.Funding from projects PPII10- 0162-5543 (JCCM), CGL2010-20787-C02-01, CGL2010- 20787-C02-02 (MiCInn), Cenit project Prometeo (CDTI), and UNCM08-1E-086 (MiCInn) is gratefully acknowledged

Deep Learning Techniques in Extreme Weather Events: A Review

Extreme weather events pose significant challenges, thereby demanding techniques for accurate analysis and precise forecasting to mitigate its impact. In recent years, deep learning techniques have emerged as a promising approach for weather forecasting and understanding the dynamics of extreme weather events. This review aims to provide a comprehensive overview of the state-of-the-art deep learning in the field. We explore the utilization of deep learning architectures, across various aspects of weather prediction such as thunderstorm, lightning, precipitation, drought, heatwave, cold waves and tropical cyclones. We highlight the potential of deep learning, such as its ability to capture complex patterns and non-linear relationships. Additionally, we discuss the limitations of current approaches and highlight future directions for advancements in the field of meteorology. The insights gained from this systematic review are crucial for the scientific community to make informed decisions and mitigate the impacts of extreme weather events

Quantitative comparisons of satellite observations and cloud models

2011 Fall.Includes bibliographical references.Microwave radiation interacts directly with precipitating particles and can therefore be used to compare microphysical properties found in models with those found in nature. Lower frequencies (< 37 GHz) can detect the emission signals from the raining clouds over radiometrically cold ocean surfaces while higher frequencies (≥ 37 GHz) are more sensitive to the scattering of the precipitating-sized ice particles in the convective storms over high-emissivity land, which lend them particular capabilities for different applications. Both are explored with a different scenario for each case: a comparison of two rainfall retrievals over ocean and a comparison of a cloud model simulation to satellite observations over land. Both the Goddard Profiling algorithm (GPROF) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) one-dimensional + four-dimensional variational analysis (1D+4D-Var) rainfall retrievals are inversion algorithms based on the Bayes' theorem. Differences stem primarily from the a-priori information. GPROF uses an observationally generated a-priori database while ECMWF 1D-Var uses the model forecast First Guess (FG) fields. The relative similarity in the two approaches means that comparisons can shed light on the differences that are produced by the a-priori information. Case studies have found that differences can be classified into four categories based upon the agreement in the brightness temperatures (Tbs) and in the microphysical properties of Cloud Water Path (CWP) and Rain Water Path (RWP) space. We found a category of special interest in which both retrievals converge to similar Tb through minimization procedures but produce different CWP and RWP. The similarity in Tb can be attributed to comparable Total Water Path (TWP) between the two retrievals while the disagreement in the microphysics is caused by their different degrees of constraint of the cloud/rain ratio by the observations. This situation occurs frequently and takes up 46.9% in the one month 1D-Var retrievals examined. To attain better constrained cloud/rain ratios and improved retrieval quality, this study suggests the implementation of higher microwave frequency channels in the 1D-Var algorithm. Cloud Resolving Models (CRMs) offer an important pathway to interpret satellite observations of microphysical properties of storms. High frequency microwave brightness temperatures (Tbs) respond to precipitating-sized ice particles and can, therefore, be compared with simulated Tbs at the same frequencies. By clustering the Tb vectors at these frequencies, the scene can be classified into distinct microphysical regimes, in other words, cloud types. The properties for each cloud type in the simulated scene are compared to those in the observation scene to identify the discrepancies in microphysics within that cloud type. A convective storm over the Amazon observed by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) is simulated using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) in a semi-ideal setting, and four regimes are defined within the scene using cluster analysis: the 'clear sky/thin cirrus' cluster, the 'cloudy' cluster, the 'stratiform anvil' cluster and the 'convective' cluster. The relationship between Tb difference of 37 and 85 GHz and Tb at 85 GHz is found to contain important information of microphysical properties such as hydrometeor species and size distributions. Cluster-by-cluster comparison between the observations and the simulations discloses biases in the model including overproduction of supercooled water and large hail particles. The detected biases shed light on how the model should be adjusted to generate more realistic microphysical relationships for each cluster. Guided by the model/observation discrepancies in the 'convective' cloud cluster, a new simulation is performed to provide dynamic adjustments by generating more but smaller hail particles

Interactions between Tropical Convection and the Environment: A View across Scales

The interaction between moist convection and the environment that engenders it is a problem that spans multiple scales. In this study, the problem is approached using a suite of observational and modeling tools. The first approach was the development of an algorithm to estimate latent heating profiles from radar observations using a high-resolution version of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). A lookup table was constructed from WRF output to statistically quantify the relationship between latent heating and three characteristics of radar-observed storms: size, mean height and mean intensity. A tight link between organization (characterized by the size of the system) and the intensity (as measured by latent heat release) was found. The algorithm was validated against field campaign observations and shows skill in replicating the short-term (less than daily) variability associated with tropical synoptic systems. The second approach was to analyze the relationship between convection and the environment via moisture modulation using the Tropical Rain Measuring Mission satellite and reanalysis data, with focus on the tropical precipitation-water vapor relationship (P-r curve) which is a power-law relationship, which at the convective time and space scales is characterized by a sharp increase in precipitation beyond a critical value of moisture (the pickup threshold). The convective and stratiform components of the P-r relationship were studied separately and it was found that the pickup in tropical precipitation mainly originates from a rapid pickup in the areal extent of stratiform precipitation. A survey of the P-r curve across the tropical world–both land and ocean–shows that the pickup threshold is much lower over tropical land than over the ocean and that convective precipitation picks up prior to stratiform precipitation. Finally, the implications of a precipitation-moisture relationship were explored for prominent forms of organized convection in the tropics, i.e, tropical waves and the Madden-Julian Oscillation. It was found that the different sources of column moisture (horizontal transport and convection) were influential in environments with different moisture levels. These relationships are also dependent on the time and space scale of analysis