On predictability of rare events leveraging social media: a machine learning perspective

Information extracted from social media streams has been leveraged to forecast the outcome of a large number of real-world events, from political elections to stock market fluctuations. An increasing amount of studies demonstrates how the analysis of social media conversations provides cheap access to the wisdom of the crowd. However, extents and contexts in which such forecasting power can be effectively leveraged are still unverified at least in a systematic way. It is also unclear how social-media-based predictions compare to those based on alternative information sources. To address these issues, here we develop a machine learning framework that leverages social media streams to automatically identify and predict the outcomes of soccer matches. We focus in particular on matches in which at least one of the possible outcomes is deemed as highly unlikely by professional bookmakers. We argue that sport events offer a systematic approach for testing the predictive power of social media, and allow to compare such power against the rigorous baselines set by external sources. Despite such strict baselines, our framework yields above 8% marginal profit when used to inform simple betting strategies. The system is based on real-time sentiment analysis and exploits data collected immediately before the games, allowing for informed bets. We discuss the rationale behind our approach, describe the learning framework, its prediction performance and the return it provides as compared to a set of betting strategies. To test our framework we use both historical Twitter data from the 2014 FIFA World Cup games, and real-time Twitter data collected by monitoring the conversations about all soccer matches of four major European tournaments (FA Premier League, Serie A, La Liga, and Bundesliga), and the 2014 UEFA Champions League, during the period between Oct. 25th 2014 and Nov. 26th 2014.Comment: 10 pages, 10 tables, 8 figure

Active learning in annotating micro-blogs dealing with e-reputation

Elections unleash strong political views on Twitter, but what do people really think about politics? Opinion and trend mining on micro blogs dealing with politics has recently attracted researchers in several fields including Information Retrieval and Machine Learning (ML). Since the performance of ML and Natural Language Processing (NLP) approaches are limited by the amount and quality of data available, one promising alternative for some tasks is the automatic propagation of expert annotations. This paper intends to develop a so-called active learning process for automatically annotating French language tweets that deal with the image (i.e., representation, web reputation) of politicians. Our main focus is on the methodology followed to build an original annotated dataset expressing opinion from two French politicians over time. We therefore review state of the art NLP-based ML algorithms to automatically annotate tweets using a manual initiation step as bootstrap. This paper focuses on key issues about active learning while building a large annotated data set from noise. This will be introduced by human annotators, abundance of data and the label distribution across data and entities. In turn, we show that Twitter characteristics such as the author's name or hashtags can be considered as the bearing point to not only improve automatic systems for Opinion Mining (OM) and Topic Classification but also to reduce noise in human annotations. However, a later thorough analysis shows that reducing noise might induce the loss of crucial information.Comment: Journal of Interdisciplinary Methodologies and Issues in Science - Vol 3 - Contextualisation digitale - 201

Econometrics meets sentiment : an overview of methodology and applications

The advent of massive amounts of textual, audio, and visual data has spurred the development of econometric methodology to transform qualitative sentiment data into quantitative sentiment variables, and to use those variables in an econometric analysis of the relationships between sentiment and other variables. We survey this emerging research field and refer to it as sentometrics, which is a portmanteau of sentiment and econometrics. We provide a synthesis of the relevant methodological approaches, illustrate with empirical results, and discuss useful software

How did the discussion go: Discourse act classification in social media conversations

We propose a novel attention based hierarchical LSTM model to classify discourse act sequences in social media conversations, aimed at mining data from online discussion using textual meanings beyond sentence level. The very uniqueness of the task is the complete categorization of possible pragmatic roles in informal textual discussions, contrary to extraction of question-answers, stance detection or sarcasm identification which are very much role specific tasks. Early attempt was made on a Reddit discussion dataset. We train our model on the same data, and present test results on two different datasets, one from Reddit and one from Facebook. Our proposed model outperformed the previous one in terms of domain independence; without using platform-dependent structural features, our hierarchical LSTM with word relevance attention mechanism achieved F1-scores of 71\% and 66\% respectively to predict discourse roles of comments in Reddit and Facebook discussions. Efficiency of recurrent and convolutional architectures in order to learn discursive representation on the same task has been presented and analyzed, with different word and comment embedding schemes. Our attention mechanism enables us to inquire into relevance ordering of text segments according to their roles in discourse. We present a human annotator experiment to unveil important observations about modeling and data annotation. Equipped with our text-based discourse identification model, we inquire into how heterogeneous non-textual features like location, time, leaning of information etc. play their roles in charaterizing online discussions on Facebook

Stock portfolio selection using learning-to-rank algorithms with news sentiment

In this study, we apply learning-to-rank algorithms to design trading strategies using relative performance of a group of stocks based on investors' sentiment toward these stocks. We show that learning-to-rank algorithms are effective in producing reliable rankings of the best and the worst performing stocks based on investors' sentiment. More specifically, we use the sentiment shock and trend indicators introduced in the previous studies, and we design stock selection rules of holding long positions of the top 25% stocks and short positions of the bottom 25% stocks according to rankings produced by learning-to-rank algorithms. We then apply two learning-to-rank algorithms, ListNet and RankNet, in stock selection processes and test long-only and long-short portfolio selection strategies using 10 years of market and news sentiment data. Through backtesting of these strategies from 2006 to 2014, we demonstrate that our portfolio strategies produce risk-adjusted returns superior to the S&P500 index return, the hedge fund industry average performance - HFRIEMN, and some sentiment-based approaches without learning-to-rank algorithm during the same period

A social media and crowd-sourcing data mining system for crime prevention during and post-crisis situations

A number of large crisis situations, such as natural disasters have affected the planet over the last decade. The outcomes of such disasters are catastrophic for the infrastructures of modern societies. Furthermore, after large disasters, societies come face-to-face with important issues, such as the loss of human lives, people who are missing and the increment of the criminality rate. In many occasions, they seem unprepared to face such issues. This paper aims to present an automated system for the synchronization of the police and Law Enforcement Agencies (LEAs) for the prevention of criminal activities during and post a large crisis situation. The paper presents a review of the literature focusing on the necessity of using data mining in combination with advanced web technologies, such as social media and crowd-sourcing, for the resolution of the problems related to criminal activities caused during and post-crisis situations. The paper provides an introduction to examples of different techniques and algorithms used for social media and crowd-sourcing scanning, such as sentiment analysis and link analysis. The main focus of the paper is the ATHENA Crisis Management system. The function of the ATHENA system is based on the use of social media and crowd-sourcing for collecting crisis-related information. The system uses a number of data mining techniques to collect and analyze data from the social media for the purpose of crime prevention. A number of conclusions are drawn on the significance of social media and crowd-sourcing data mining techniques for the resolution of problems related to large crisis situations with emphasis to the ATHENA system