Thematic issue on evolutionary algorithms in water resources

Special Issue on Evolutionary Algorithms.H.R. Maier, Z. Kapelan, J. Kasprzyk, L.S. Matot

Appropriate flow forecasting for reservoir operation

The aim of the study presented in this thesis is to develop and apply a methodology to determine the appropriate model application by including the water management objective explicitly, and to demonstrate its benefits

A systematic review of application of multi-criteria decision analysis for aging-dam management

[EN] Decisions for aging-dam management requires a transparent process to prevent the dam failure, thus to avoid severe consequences in socio-economic and environmental terms. Multiple criteria analysis arose to model complex problems like this. This paper reviews specific problems, applications and Multi-Criteria Decision Making techniques for dam management. Multi-Attribute Decision Making techniques had a major presence under the single approach, specially the Analytic Hierarchy Process, and its combination with Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution was prominent under the hybrid approach; while a high variety of complementary techniques was identified. A growing hybridization and fuzzification are the two most relevant trends observed. The integration of stakeholders within the decision making process and the inclusion of trade-offs and interactions between components within the evaluation model must receive a deeper exploration. Despite the progressive consolidation of Multi-Criteria Decision Making in dam management, further research is required to differentiate between rational and intuitive decision processes. Additionally, the need to address benefits, opportunities, costs and risks related to repair, upgrading or removal measures in aging dams suggests the Analytic Network Process, not yet explored under this approach, as an interesting path worth investigating.This research was funded by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness along with FEDER funding (Projects BIA201456574-R and ECO2015-66673-R).Zamarrón-Mieza, I.; Yepes, V.; Moreno-Jiménez, JM. (2017). A systematic review of application of multi-criteria decision analysis for aging-dam management. Journal of Cleaner Production. 147:217-230. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2017.01.092S21723014

Machine Learning-Based Method for Urban Lifeline System Resilience Assessment in GIS*

System resilience, the capability of a system to sustain and recover from deliberate attacks, accidents, or naturally occurring threats or incidents, is a key property to measure the degree of robustness and coupling effect of complex system. The systems of waste disposal, urban water supply, and electricity transmission are typical systems with complex and high coupling features. In this chapter, a methodology for measuring the system resilience of such systems is proposed. It is a process of integrated decision-making which contains two aspects: (1) a five-dimensional indicator framework of system resilience which includes attributes in infrastructural, economic, and social sectors and (2) a hybrid K-means algorithm, which combines entropy theory, bootstrapping, and analytic network process. Through utilizing real data, the methodology can assist to identify and classify the level of system resilience for different geographical regions which are sustained by lifeline systems. The calculation of algorithm, visualization of processed data, and classification of resilience level can be finally realized in geographic information system. Through utilizing by regional governments and local communities, the final result can serve to provide guideline for resource allocation and the prevention of huge economic loss in disasters

Quantitative analysis of non-cooperative transboundary river basins

Le partage de l’eau dans des bassins versants transfrontaliers est un problème complexe, en particulier lorsqu’il n’y a pas de tradition de coopération entre les pays riverains dans d’autres domaines non liés à l’eau tels que le commerce. De plus, à mesure que les ressources en eau se développent et que le changement climatique est une nouvelle source de risque, le manque d’informations partagées quant aux débits hydrologiques et aux décisions humaines et institutionnelles sur la gestion des ressources rend de plus en plus difficile la distinction entre facteurs naturels et anthropiques dans le dérèglement d’un régime hydrologique. Des tentatives de récupération de données hydrologiques dans des régions difficiles d’accès ont été réalisées avec succès en utilisant la télédétection. Mais l’application de cette technique pour la modélisation des systèmes d’eau (notamment pour caractériser des infrastructures ou des comportements d’usagers) reste difficile puisqu’elle nécessite d’importantes observations et interactions avec les gestionnaires de la ressource sur le terrain. La portée de la plupart des techniques de modélisation est également limitée par leur incapacité à gérer la multitude d’institutions en charge des ressources en eau, ou l’impact de leurs intérêts spécifiques et souvent opposés sur la ressource en elle-même. Pendant des décennies, ce manque de données détaillées et de techniques de modélisation appropriées a conduit de nombreuses études sur des bassins versants internationaux non gérés de façon concertée à rester qualitatives ou conceptuelles. Cette incapacité à comprendre et à quantifier de manière indépendante les causes de changements hydrologiques est particulièrement frustrante pour des décideurs politiques. Dans le bassin du Yarmouk, par exemple, qui est partagé entre la Syrie, la Jordanie et Israël, le débit annuel moyen correspond aujourd’hui à moins de 15 % de celui qui a précédé la période de développement, et ce malgré la signature d’accords bilatéraux entre la Syrie et la Jordanie (1987) et entre la Jordanie et Israël (1994). Cette situation a conduit les pays riverains à développer chacun leur propre théorie, contestée, concernant l’effondrement du débit du Yarmouk. En prenant ce bassin comme étude de cas, cette thèse de doctorat vise à analyser quantitativement des changements hydrologiques dans des bassins versants transfrontaliers, non gérés de façon concertée, complexes institutionnellement, et aménagés à l’excès. Cet objectif passe par deux activités de recherche principales : (i) le suivi de la retenue d’eau de petits barrages dans des zones inaccessibles – comme première étape à la caractérisation d’un système multi-réservoirs ; et la simulation et l’analyse de scénarios, dans le but d’étudier de manière quantitative des changements hydrologiques dans un bassin versant. Les résultats indiquent que des facteurs naturels et anthropiques sont responsables de la chute du débit du Yarmouk et évaluent leur contribution à cet effet en combinant télédétection, simulation multi-agent et analyse de scénarios.Sharing waters in a transboundary river basin is challenging, especially when there is no tradition of cooperation between riparian countries in other, non water-related, issues such as trade. Moreover, as water resources are being developed and climate change is a new source of risk, the lack of shared information on hydrological flows and human/institutional decisions on resources management implies that it is increasingly difficult to distinguish between natural and anthropogenic factors affecting a flow regime. Attempts to retrieve hydrological data in hardly accessible areas have successfully been made using remote sensing. But the use of this technique for water systems modeling efforts, and particularly for characterizing infrastructure or understand water user behaviors, remains challenging as it requires extensive on-the-ground observations and interactions with water resources managers. The scope of most modeling techniques is also limited by their inability to handle the multiplicity of institutions dealing with water, or the impact of their specific and often competing interests on water resources. For decades, this lack of detailed data and suitable modeling techniques has led many studies on non-cooperatively managed international river basins to remain qualitative or conceptual, and has therefore frustrated policy makers for not being able to independently understand and quantify the causes of hydrological changes. In the Yarmouk River basin, for example, which is shared between Syria, Jordan and Israel, the annual outflow now corresponds to less than 15% of that of pre-development era, despite the signature of bilateral agreements between Syria and Jordan (1987), and between Jordan and Israel (1994). This state of affairs has led riparian countries to develop their own, contested, narratives regarding the collapse of the Yarmouk flow. Taking the Yarmouk basin as a case-study, this Ph.D. thesis consequently aims at quantitatively analyzing past hydrological changes in non-cooperatively managed, institutionally complex, over-built, transboundary river basins. This objective goes through two main research activities: (i) the monitoring of small reservoirs’ storage in inaccessible areas, as a start to characterize a multi-reservoir system; and (ii) the simulation and analysis of scenarios to quantitatively study changes in a river basin. Results reveal that the contributions of natural and anthropogenic factors to explain the decline of the Yarmouk flows can be identified and then assessed using remote sensing, multi-agent simulation, and scenario analysis

Many-objective design of reservoir systems - Applications to the Blue Nile

This work proposes a multi-criteria optimization-based approach for supporting the negotiated design of multireservoir systems. The research addresses the multi-reservoir system design problem (selecting among alternative options, reservoir sizing), the capacity expansion problem (timing the activation of new assets and the filling of new large reservoirs) and management of multi-reservoir systems at various expansion stages. The aim is to balance multiple long and short-term performance objectives of relevance to stakeholders with differing interests. The work also investigates how problem re-formulations can be used to improve computational efficiency at the design and assessment stage and proposes a framework for post-processing of many objective optimization results to facilitate negotiation among multiple stakeholders. The proposed methods are demonstrated using the Blue Nile in a suite of proof-of-concept studies. Results take the form of Pareto-optimal trade-offs where each point on the curve or surface represents the design of water resource systems (i.e., asset choice, size, implementation dates of reservoirs, and operating policy) and coordination strategies (e.g., cost sharing and power trade) where further benefits in one measure necessarily come at the expense of another. Technical chapters aim to offer practical Nile management and/or investment recommendations deriving from the analysis which could be refined in future more detailed studies