An adaptive hierarchical fuzzy logic system for modelling and prediction of financial systems

In this thesis, an intelligent fuzzy logic system using genetic algorithms for the prediction and modelling of interest rates is developed. The proposed system uses a Hierarchical Fuzzy Logic system in which a genetic algorithm is used as a training method for learning the fuzzy rules knowledge bases. A fuzzy logic system is developed to model and predict three month quarterly interest rate fluctuations. The system is further trained to model and predict interest rates for six month and one year periods. The proposed system is developed with first two, three, then four and finally five hierarchical knowledge bases to model and predict interest rates. A Feed Forward Fuzzy Logic system using fuzzy logic and genetic algorithms is developed to predict interest rates for three months periods. A back-propagation Hierarchical Neural Network system is further developed to predict interest rates for three months, six months and one year periods. These two systems are then compared with the Hierarchical Fuzzy Logic system results and conclusions on their accuracy of prediction are compared

A hierarchical Mamdani-type fuzzy modelling approach with new training data selection and multi-objective optimisation mechanisms: A special application for the prediction of mechanical properties of alloy steels

In this paper, a systematic data-driven fuzzy modelling methodology is proposed, which allows to construct Mamdani fuzzy models considering both accuracy (precision) and transparency (interpretability) of fuzzy systems. The new methodology employs a fast hierarchical clustering algorithm to generate an initial fuzzy model efficiently; a training data selection mechanism is developed to identify appropriate and efficient data as learning samples; a high-performance Particle Swarm Optimisation (PSO) based multi-objective optimisation mechanism is developed to further improve the fuzzy model in terms of both the structure and the parameters; and a new tolerance analysis method is proposed to derive the confidence bands relating to the final elicited models. This proposed modelling approach is evaluated using two benchmark problems and is shown to outperform other modelling approaches. Furthermore, the proposed approach is successfully applied to complex high-dimensional modelling problems for manufacturing of alloy steels, using ‘real’ industrial data. These problems concern the prediction of the mechanical properties of alloy steels by correlating them with the heat treatment process conditions as well as the weight percentages of the chemical compositions

Literature Review of the Recent Trends and Applications in various Fuzzy Rule based systems

Fuzzy rule based systems (FRBSs) is a rule-based system which uses linguistic fuzzy variables as antecedents and consequent to represent human understandable knowledge. They have been applied to various applications and areas throughout the soft computing literature. However, FRBSs suffers from many drawbacks such as uncertainty representation, high number of rules, interpretability loss, high computational time for learning etc. To overcome these issues with FRBSs, there exists many extensions of FRBSs. This paper presents an overview and literature review of recent trends on various types and prominent areas of fuzzy systems (FRBSs) namely genetic fuzzy system (GFS), hierarchical fuzzy system (HFS), neuro fuzzy system (NFS), evolving fuzzy system (eFS), FRBSs for big data, FRBSs for imbalanced data, interpretability in FRBSs and FRBSs which use cluster centroids as fuzzy rules. The review is for years 2010-2021. This paper also highlights important contributions, publication statistics and current trends in the field. The paper also addresses several open research areas which need further attention from the FRBSs research community.Comment: 49 pages, Accepted for publication in ijf

Modeling and Optimal Design of Machining-Induced Residual Stresses in Aluminium Alloys Using a Fast Hierarchical Multiobjective Optimization Algorithm

The residual stresses induced during shaping and machining play an important role in determining the integrity and durability of metal components. An important issue of producing safety critical components is to find the machining parameters that create compressive surface stresses or minimise tensile surface stresses. In this paper, a systematic data-driven fuzzy modelling methodology is proposed, which allows constructing transparent fuzzy models considering both accuracy and interpretability attributes of fuzzy systems. The new method employs a hierarchical optimisation structure to improve the modelling efficiency, where two learning mechanisms cooperate together: NSGA-II is used to improve the model’s structure while the gradient descent method is used to optimise the numerical parameters. This hybrid approach is then successfully applied to the problem that concerns the prediction of machining induced residual stresses in aerospace aluminium alloys. Based on the developed reliable prediction models, NSGA-II is further applied to the multi-objective optimal design of aluminium alloys in a ‘reverse-engineering’ fashion. It is revealed that the optimal machining regimes to minimise the residual stress and the machining cost simultaneously can be successfully located

Heuristic design of fuzzy inference systems: a review of three decades of research

This paper provides an in-depth review of the optimal design of type-1 and type-2 fuzzy inference systems (FIS) using five well known computational frameworks: genetic-fuzzy systems (GFS), neuro-fuzzy systems (NFS), hierarchical fuzzy systems (HFS), evolving fuzzy systems (EFS), and multi-objective fuzzy systems (MFS), which is in view that some of them are linked to each other. The heuristic design of GFS uses evolutionary algorithms for optimizing both Mamdani-type and Takagi–Sugeno–Kang-type fuzzy systems. Whereas, the NFS combines the FIS with neural network learning systems to improve the approximation ability. An HFS combines two or more low-dimensional fuzzy logic units in a hierarchical design to overcome the curse of dimensionality. An EFS solves the data streaming issues by evolving the system incrementally, and an MFS solves the multi-objective trade-offs like the simultaneous maximization of both interpretability and accuracy. This paper offers a synthesis of these dimensions and explores their potentials, challenges, and opportunities in FIS research. This review also examines the complex relations among these dimensions and the possibilities of combining one or more computational frameworks adding another dimension: deep fuzzy systems