16,511 research outputs found
Adaptive Probability Theory: Human Biases as an Adaptation
Humans make mistakes in our decision-making and probability judgments. While the heuristics used for decision-making have been explained as adaptations that are both efficient and fast, the reasons why people deal with probabilities using the reported biases have not been clear. We will see that some of these biases can be understood as heuristics developed to explain a complex world when little information is available. That is, they approximate Bayesian inferences for situations more complex than the ones in laboratory experiments and in this sense might have appeared as an adaptation to those situations. When ideas as uncertainty and limited sample sizes are included in the problem, the correct probabilities are changed to values close to the observed behavior. These ideas will be used to explain the observed weight functions, the violations of coalescing and stochastic dominance reported in the literature
Gaussian process single-index models as emulators for computer experiments
A single-index model (SIM) provides for parsimonious multi-dimensional
nonlinear regression by combining parametric (linear) projection with
univariate nonparametric (non-linear) regression models. We show that a
particular Gaussian process (GP) formulation is simple to work with and ideal
as an emulator for some types of computer experiment as it can outperform the
canonical separable GP regression model commonly used in this setting. Our
contribution focuses on drastically simplifying, re-interpreting, and then
generalizing a recently proposed fully Bayesian GP-SIM combination, and then
illustrating its favorable performance on synthetic data and a real-data
computer experiment. Two R packages, both released on CRAN, have been augmented
to facilitate inference under our proposed model(s).Comment: 23 pages, 9 figures, 1 tabl
Combining link and content-based information in a Bayesian inference model for entity search
An architectural model of a Bayesian inference network to support entity search in semantic knowledge bases is presented. The model supports the explicit combination of primitive data type and object-level semantics under a single computational framework. A flexible query model is supported capable to reason with the availability of simple semantics in querie
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