Heterogeneous Tail Generalized Common Factor Modeling

A multivariate normal mean-variance heterogeneous tails mixture distribution is proposed for the joint distribution of financial factors and asset returns (referred to as Factor-HGH). The proposed latent variable model incorporates a Cholesky decomposition of the dispersion matrix to ensure a rich dependency structure for capturing the stylized facts of the data. It generalizes several existing model structures, with or without financial factors. It is further applicable in large dimensions due to a fast ECME estimation algorithm of all the model parameters. The advantages of modelling financial factors and asset returns jointly under non-Gaussian errors are illustrated in an empirical comparison study between the proposed Factor-HGH model and classical financial factor models. While the results for the Fama-French 49 industry portfolios are in line with Gaussian-based models, in the case of highly tail heterogeneous cryptocurrencies, the portfolio based on the Factor HGH model doubles the average return while keeping the volatility, the maximum drawdown, the turnover, and the expected-shortfall at a low level

Shrinking in COMFORT

The present paper combines nonlinear shrinkage with the Multivariate Generalized Hyperbolic (MGHyp) distribution to account for heavy tails in estimating the first and second moments in high dimensions. An Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm is developed that is fast, stable, and applicable in high dimensions. Theoretical arguments for the monotonicity of the proposed algorithm are provided and it is shown in simulations that it is able to accurately retrieve parameter estimates. Finally, in an extensive Markowitz portfolio optimization analysis, the approach is compared to state-of-the-art benchmark models. The proposed model excels with a strong out-of-sample portfolio performance combined with a comparably low turnover

Untangling hotel industry’s inefficiency: An SFA approach applied to a renowned Portuguese hotel chain

The present paper explores the technical efficiency of four hotels from Teixeira Duarte Group - a renowned Portuguese hotel chain. An efficiency ranking is established from these four hotel units located in Portugal using Stochastic Frontier Analysis. This methodology allows to discriminate between measurement error and systematic inefficiencies in the estimation process enabling to investigate the main inefficiency causes. Several suggestions concerning efficiency improvement are undertaken for each hotel studied.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

ИНТЕЛЛЕКТУАЛЬНЫЙ числовым программным ДЛЯ MIMD-компьютер

For most scientific and engineering problems simulated on computers the solving of problems of the computational mathematics with approximately given initial data constitutes an intermediate or a final stage. Basic problems of the computational mathematics include the investigating and solving of linear algebraic systems, evaluating of eigenvalues and eigenvectors of matrices, the solving of systems of non-linear equations, numerical integration of initial- value problems for systems of ordinary differential equations.Для більшості наукових та інженерних задач моделювання на ЕОМ рішення задач обчислювальної математики з наближено заданими вихідними даними складає проміжний або остаточний етап. Основні проблеми обчислювальної математики відносяться дослідження і рішення лінійних алгебраїчних систем оцінки власних значень і власних векторів матриць, рішення систем нелінійних рівнянь, чисельного інтегрування початково задач для систем звичайних диференціальних рівнянь.Для большинства научных и инженерных задач моделирования на ЭВМ решение задач вычислительной математики с приближенно заданным исходным данным составляет промежуточный или окончательный этап. Основные проблемы вычислительной математики относятся исследования и решения линейных алгебраических систем оценки собственных значений и собственных векторов матриц, решение систем нелинейных уравнений, численного интегрирования начально задач для систем обыкновенных дифференциальных уравнений

Proceedings of the ECCOMAS Thematic Conference on Multibody Dynamics 2015

This volume contains the full papers accepted for presentation at the ECCOMAS Thematic Conference on Multibody Dynamics 2015 held in the Barcelona School of Industrial Engineering, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, on June 29 - July 2, 2015. The ECCOMAS Thematic Conference on Multibody Dynamics is an international meeting held once every two years in a European country. Continuing the very successful series of past conferences that have been organized in Lisbon (2003), Madrid (2005), Milan (2007), Warsaw (2009), Brussels (2011) and Zagreb (2013); this edition will once again serve as a meeting point for the international researchers, scientists and experts from academia, research laboratories and industry working in the area of multibody dynamics. Applications are related to many fields of contemporary engineering, such as vehicle and railway systems, aeronautical and space vehicles, robotic manipulators, mechatronic and autonomous systems, smart structures, biomechanical systems and nanotechnologies. The topics of the conference include, but are not restricted to: ● Formulations and Numerical Methods ● Efficient Methods and Real-Time Applications ● Flexible Multibody Dynamics ● Contact Dynamics and Constraints ● Multiphysics and Coupled Problems ● Control and Optimization ● Software Development and Computer Technology ● Aerospace and Maritime Applications ● Biomechanics ● Railroad Vehicle Dynamics ● Road Vehicle Dynamics ● Robotics ● Benchmark ProblemsPostprint (published version

Impact of actual and self-perceived body type on visual perception of distances

2015 Spring.Includes bibliographical references.We investigate several questions regarding the proposition that physical body size and one's image of their own body type affect the ability to make accurate judgements of distances. Data collected include subjects' guesses of distances of four cones set 10, 15, 20, and 25 meters away and the weight, BMI, and self-perception of body image for each of 67 subjects. Interest lies in determining the covariates that are most important in explaining one's ability to accurately judge distances and whether weight or BMI is the better explainer among the physical body size predictors. We utilize linear mixed models to account for correlation among each subjects' own distance guesses and to allow for flexible modeling of subject-specific effects. Flexibility is further promoted through use of model averaging techniques to account for model selection uncertainty inherent in typical approaches in which an analyst selects only one model from which inferences are made. A generalization of the coefficient of determination from ordinary linear models is made to the linear mixed model setting (R²LMM) in order to provide an additional goodness measure for fixed effects and for individual fixed effects themselves. Baseline differences among subjects' ability to accurately judge distances are so vast that extracting the importance of the fixed effects becomes difficult. It is found that body size is a significant predictor of subjects' ability to accurately judge distances but body image is not at the 0.05 significance level. We recommend choosing weight over BMI as a predictor of guessing behavior based on information criteria, model averaging, and the generalized R²LMM. Specifically, heavier individuals tend to guess more accurately

Statistical Modelling

The book collects the proceedings of the 19th International Workshop on Statistical Modelling held in Florence on July 2004. Statistical modelling is an important cornerstone in many scientific disciplines, and the workshop has provided a rich environment for cross-fertilization of ideas from different disciplines. It consists in four invited lectures, 48 contributed papers and 47 posters. The contributions are arranged in sessions: Statistical Modelling; Statistical Modelling in Genomics; Semi-parametric Regression Models; Generalized Linear Mixed Models; Correlated Data Modelling; Missing Data, Measurement of Error and Survival Analysis; Spatial Data Modelling and Time Series and Econometrics

Multibody dynamics 2015

This volume contains the full papers accepted for presentation at the ECCOMAS Thematic Conference on Multibody Dynamics 2015 held in the Barcelona School of Industrial Engineering, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, on June 29 - July 2, 2015. The ECCOMAS Thematic Conference on Multibody Dynamics is an international meeting held once every two years in a European country. Continuing the very successful series of past conferences that have been organized in Lisbon (2003), Madrid (2005), Milan (2007), Warsaw (2009), Brussels (2011) and Zagreb (2013); this edition will once again serve as a meeting point for the international researchers, scientists and experts from academia, research laboratories and industry working in the area of multibody dynamics. Applications are related to many fields of contemporary engineering, such as vehicle and railway systems, aeronautical and space vehicles, robotic manipulators, mechatronic and autonomous systems, smart structures, biomechanical systems and nanotechnologies. The topics of the conference include, but are not restricted to: Formulations and Numerical Methods, Efficient Methods and Real-Time Applications, Flexible Multibody Dynamics, Contact Dynamics and Constraints, Multiphysics and Coupled Problems, Control and Optimization, Software Development and Computer Technology, Aerospace and Maritime Applications, Biomechanics, Railroad Vehicle Dynamics, Road Vehicle Dynamics, Robotics, Benchmark Problems. The conference is organized by the Department of Mechanical Engineering of the Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC) in Barcelona. The organizers would like to thank the authors for submitting their contributions, the keynote lecturers for accepting the invitation and for the quality of their talks, the awards and scientific committees for their support to the organization of the conference, and finally the topic organizers for reviewing all extended abstracts and selecting the awards nominees.Postprint (published version

Complexity penalized methods for structured and unstructured data

A fundamental goal of statisticians is to make inferences from the sample about characteristics of the underlying population. This is an inverse problem, since we are trying to recover a feature of the input with the availability of observations on an output. Towards this end, we consider complexity penalized methods, because they balance goodness of fit and generalizability of the solution. The data from the underlying population may come in diverse formats - structured or unstructured - such as probability distributions, text tokens, or graph characteristics. Depending on the defining features of the problem we can chose the appropriate complexity penalized approach, and assess the quality of the estimate produced by it. Favorable characteristics are strong theoretical guarantees of closeness to the true value and interpretability. Our work fits within this framework and spans the areas of simulation optimization, text mining and network inference. The first problem we consider is model calibration under the assumption that given a hypothesized input model, we can use stochastic simulation to obtain its corresponding output observations. We formulate it as a stochastic program by maximizing the entropy of the input distribution subject to moment matching. We then propose an iterative scheme via simulation to approximately solve it. We prove convergence of the proposed algorithm under appropriate conditions and demonstrate the performance via numerical studies. The second problem we consider is summarizing text documents through an inferred set of topics. We propose a frequentist reformulation of a Bayesian regularization scheme. Through our complexity-penalized perspective we lend further insight into the nature of the loss function and the regularization achieved through the priors in the Bayesian formulation. The third problem is concerned with the impact of sampling on the degree distribution of a network. Under many sampling designs, we have a linear inverse problem characterized by an ill-conditioned matrix. We investigate the theoretical properties of an approximate solution for the degree distribution found by regularizing the solution of the ill-conditioned least squares objective. Particularly, we study the rate at which the penalized solution tends to the true value as a function of network size and sampling rate