Stochastic simulation framework for the Limit Order Book using liquidity motivated agents

In this paper we develop a new form of agent-based model for limit order books based on heterogeneous trading agents, whose motivations are liquidity driven. These agents are abstractions of real market participants, expressed in a stochastic model framework. We develop an efficient way to perform statistical calibration of the model parameters on Level 2 limit order book data from Chi-X, based on a combination of indirect inference and multi-objective optimisation. We then demonstrate how such an agent-based modelling framework can be of use in testing exchange regulations, as well as informing brokerage decisions and other trading based scenarios

Endogenously-Timed Herding And The Synchronization Of Investment Cycles

This paper combines the recent garne theoretic approach of endogenous timing of entry to herding models with a rnacroeconornic model of investrnent cycles. The integrated description embodies the qualitative resuits of the rnyopic herding model in a medium run investment objective of smooth ing the capital stock adjustment process. lt features a completely disaggregated structure and bears the potential to synchronize individual cyclic investing be haviors. This synchronization via nonlinear feedback from the aggregate ac tivity can serve as an explanation of the inexistent cancelling of heterogeneous sectoral quasi-cycles. The model others an explanatory base for the constitu tion of the observed strong cyclicality of the aggregate investment series by a multitude of different periodicities and phases on the individual level. Finally, based on recent ndings of the herding literature, the stabilization potential of third parties' information revelation is conjectured

Decentralized Convergence to Nash Equilibria in Constrained Deterministic Mean Field Control

This paper considers decentralized control and optimization methodologies for large populations of systems, consisting of several agents with different individual behaviors, constraints and interests, and affected by the aggregate behavior of the overall population. For such large-scale systems, the theory of aggregative and mean field games has been established and successfully applied in various scientific disciplines. While the existing literature addresses the case of unconstrained agents, we formulate deterministic mean field control problems in the presence of heterogeneous convex constraints for the individual agents, for instance arising from agents with linear dynamics subject to convex state and control constraints. We propose several model-free feedback iterations to compute in a decentralized fashion a mean field Nash equilibrium in the limit of infinite population size. We apply our methods to the constrained linear quadratic deterministic mean field control problem and to the constrained mean field charging control problem for large populations of plug-in electric vehicles.Comment: IEEE Trans. on Automatic Control (cond. accepted

Heterogeneous Agent Models in Economics and Finance, In: Handbook of Computational Economics II: Agent-Based Computational Economics, edited by Leigh Tesfatsion and Ken Judd , Elsevier, Amsterdam 2006, pp.1109-1186.

This chapter surveys work on dynamic heterogeneous agent models (HAMs) in economics and finance. Emphasis is given to simple models that, at least to some extent, are tractable by analytic methods in combination with computational tools. Most of these models are behavioral models with boundedly rational agents using different heuristics or rule of thumb strategies that may not be perfect, but perform reasonably well. Typically these models are highly nonlinear, e.g. due to evolutionary switching between strategies, and exhibit a wide range of dynamical behavior ranging from a unique stable steady state to complex, chaotic dynamics. Aggregation of simple interactions at the micro level may generate sophisticated structure at the macro level. Simple HAMs can explain important observed stylized facts in financial time series, such as excess volatility, high trading volume, temporary bubbles and trend following, sudden crashes and mean reversion, clustered volatility and fat tails in the returns distribution.

Computation-Communication Trade-offs and Sensor Selection in Real-time Estimation for Processing Networks

Recent advances in electronics are enabling substantial processing to be performed at each node (robots, sensors) of a networked system. Local processing enables data compression and may mitigate measurement noise, but it is still slower compared to a central computer (it entails a larger computational delay). However, while nodes can process the data in parallel, the centralized computational is sequential in nature. On the other hand, if a node sends raw data to a central computer for processing, it incurs communication delay. This leads to a fundamental communication-computation trade-off, where each node has to decide on the optimal amount of preprocessing in order to maximize the network performance. We consider a network in charge of estimating the state of a dynamical system and provide three contributions. First, we provide a rigorous problem formulation for optimal real-time estimation in processing networks in the presence of delays. Second, we show that, in the case of a homogeneous network (where all sensors have the same computation) that monitors a continuous-time scalar linear system, the optimal amount of local preprocessing maximizing the network estimation performance can be computed analytically. Third, we consider the realistic case of a heterogeneous network monitoring a discrete-time multi-variate linear system and provide algorithms to decide on suitable preprocessing at each node, and to select a sensor subset when computational constraints make using all sensors suboptimal. Numerical simulations show that selecting the sensors is crucial. Moreover, we show that if the nodes apply the preprocessing policy suggested by our algorithms, they can largely improve the network estimation performance.Comment: 15 pages, 16 figures. Accepted journal versio

Endogenously-Timed Herding And The Synchronization Of Investment Cycles

This paper combines the recent garne theoretic approach of endogenous timing of entry to herding models with a rnacroeconornic model of investrnent cycles. The integrated description embodies the qualitative resuits of the rnyopic herding model in a medium run investment objective of smooth ing the capital stock adjustment process. lt features a completely disaggregated structure and bears the potential to synchronize individual cyclic investing be haviors. This synchronization via nonlinear feedback from the aggregate ac tivity can serve as an explanation of the inexistent cancelling of heterogeneous sectoral quasi-cycles. The model others an explanatory base for the constitu tion of the observed strong cyclicality of the aggregate investment series by a multitude of different periodicities and phases on the individual level. Finally, based on recent ndings of the herding literature, the stabilization potential of third parties' information revelation is conjectured.herding ; investment cycles ; nonlinear entrainment

Techniques for automated parameter estimation in computational models of probabilistic systems

The main contribution of this dissertation is the design of two new algorithms for automatically synthesizing values of numerical parameters of computational models of complex stochastic systems such that the resultant model meets user-specified behavioral specifications. These algorithms are designed to operate on probabilistic systems – systems that, in general, behave differently under identical conditions. The algorithms work using an approach that combines formal verification and mathematical optimization to explore a model\u27s parameter space. The problem of determining whether a model instantiated with a given set of parameter values satisfies the desired specification is first defined using formal verification terminology, and then reformulated in terms of statistical hypothesis testing. Parameter space exploration involves determining the outcome of the hypothesis testing query for each parameter point and is guided using simulated annealing. The first algorithm uses the sequential probability ratio test (SPRT) to solve the hypothesis testing problems, whereas the second algorithm uses an approach based on Bayesian statistical model checking (BSMC). The SPRT-based parameter synthesis algorithm was used to validate that a given model of glucose-insulin metabolism has the capability of representing diabetic behavior by synthesizing values of three parameters that ensure that the glucose-insulin subsystem spends at least 20 minutes in a diabetic scenario. The BSMC-based algorithm was used to discover the values of parameters in a physiological model of the acute inflammatory response that guarantee a set of desired clinical outcomes. These two applications demonstrate how our algorithms use formal verification, statistical hypothesis testing and mathematical optimization to automatically synthesize parameters of complex probabilistic models in order to meet user-specified behavioral propertie