The origin of bursts and heavy tails in human dynamics

The dynamics of many social, technological and economic phenomena are driven by individual human actions, turning the quantitative understanding of human behavior into a central question of modern science. Current models of human dynamics, used from risk assessment to communications, assume that human actions are randomly distributed in time and thus well approximated by Poisson processes. In contrast, there is increasing evidence that the timing of many human activities, ranging from communication to entertainment and work patterns, follow non-Poisson statistics, characterized by bursts of rapidly occurring events separated by long periods of inactivity. Here we show that the bursty nature of human behavior is a consequence of a decision based queuing process: when individuals execute tasks based on some perceived priority, the timing of the tasks will be heavy tailed, most tasks being rapidly executed, while a few experience very long waiting times. In contrast, priority blind execution is well approximated by uniform interevent statistics. These findings have important implications from resource management to service allocation in both communications and retail.Comment: Supplementary Material available at http://www.nd.edu/~network

Modeling bursts and heavy tails in human dynamics

Current models of human dynamics, used from risk assessment to communications, assume that human actions are randomly distributed in time and thus well approximated by Poisson processes. We provide direct evidence that for five human activity patterns the timing of individual human actions follow non-Poisson statistics, characterized by bursts of rapidly occurring events separated by long periods of inactivity. We show that the bursty nature of human behavior is a consequence of a decision based queuing process: when individuals execute tasks based on some perceived priority, the timing of the tasks will be heavy tailed, most tasks being rapidly executed, while a few experiencing very long waiting times. We discuss two queueing models that capture human activity. The first model assumes that there are no limitations on the number of tasks an individual can hadle at any time, predicting that the waiting time of the individual tasks follow a heavy tailed distribution with exponent alpha=3/2. The second model imposes limitations on the queue length, resulting in alpha=1. We provide empirical evidence supporting the relevance of these two models to human activity patterns. Finally, we discuss possible extension of the proposed queueing models and outline some future challenges in exploring the statistical mechanisms of human dynamics.Comment: RevTex, 19 pages, 8 figure

New activity pattern in human interactive dynamics

We investigate the response function of human agents as demonstrated by written correspondence, uncovering a new universal pattern for how the reactive dynamics of individuals is distributed across the set of each agent's contacts. In long-term empirical data on email, we find that the set of response times considered separately for the messages to each different correspondent of a given writer, generate a family of heavy-tailed distributions, which have largely the same features for all agents, and whose characteristic times grow exponentially with the rank of each correspondent. We furthermore show that this universal behavioral pattern emerges robustly by considering weighted moving averages of the priority-conditioned response-time probabilities generated by a basic prioritization model. Our findings clarify how the range of priorities in the inputs from one's environment underpin and shape the dynamics of agents embedded in a net of reactive relations. These newly revealed activity patterns might be present in other general interactive environments, and constrain future models of communication and interaction networks, affecting their architecture and evolution.Comment: 15 pages, 7 figure

Datacenter Traffic Control: Understanding Techniques and Trade-offs

Datacenters provide cost-effective and flexible access to scalable compute and storage resources necessary for today's cloud computing needs. A typical datacenter is made up of thousands of servers connected with a large network and usually managed by one operator. To provide quality access to the variety of applications and services hosted on datacenters and maximize performance, it deems necessary to use datacenter networks effectively and efficiently. Datacenter traffic is often a mix of several classes with different priorities and requirements. This includes user-generated interactive traffic, traffic with deadlines, and long-running traffic. To this end, custom transport protocols and traffic management techniques have been developed to improve datacenter network performance. In this tutorial paper, we review the general architecture of datacenter networks, various topologies proposed for them, their traffic properties, general traffic control challenges in datacenters and general traffic control objectives. The purpose of this paper is to bring out the important characteristics of traffic control in datacenters and not to survey all existing solutions (as it is virtually impossible due to massive body of existing research). We hope to provide readers with a wide range of options and factors while considering a variety of traffic control mechanisms. We discuss various characteristics of datacenter traffic control including management schemes, transmission control, traffic shaping, prioritization, load balancing, multipathing, and traffic scheduling. Next, we point to several open challenges as well as new and interesting networking paradigms. At the end of this paper, we briefly review inter-datacenter networks that connect geographically dispersed datacenters which have been receiving increasing attention recently and pose interesting and novel research problems.Comment: Accepted for Publication in IEEE Communications Surveys and Tutorial

Optimization of Multiclass Queueing Networks: Polyhedral and Nonlinear Characterizations of Achievable Performance

We consider open and closed multiclass queueing networks with Poisson arrivals (in open networks), exponentially distributed class dependent service times, and with class dependent deterministic or probabilistic routing. For open networks, the performance objective is to minimize, over all sequencing and routing policies, a weighted sum of the expected response times of different classes. Using a powerful technique involving quadratic or higher order potential functions, we propose variants of a method to derive polyhedral and nonlinear spaces which contain the entire set of achievable response times under stable and preemptive scheduling policies. By optimizing over these spaces, we obtain lower bounds on achievable performance. In particular, we obtain a sequence of progressively more complicated nonlinear approximations (relaxations) which are progressively closer to the exact achievable space. In the special case of single station networks (multiclass queues and Klimov's model) and homogenous multiclass networks, our characterization gives exactly the achievable region. Consequently, the proposed method can be viewed as the natural extension of conservation laws to multiclass queueing networks. For closed networks, the performance objective is to maximize throughput. We similarly find polyhedral and nonlinear spaces that include the performance space and by maximizing over these spaces we obtain an upper bound on the optimal throughput. We check the tightness of our bounds by simulating heuristic scheduling policies for simple open networks and we find that the first order approximation of our method is at least as good as simulation-based existing methods. In terms of computational complexity and in contrast to simulation-based existing methods, the calculation of our first order bounds consists of solving a linear programming problem with both the number of variables and constraints being polynomial (quadratic) in the number of classes in the network. The i-th order approximation involves solving a convex programming problem in dimension O(Ri+l), where R is the number of classes in the network, which can be solved efficiently using techniques from semi-definite programming