Integration of mahalanobis-taguchi system and activity based costing in decision making for remanufacturing

Classifying components at the end of life (EOL) into remanufacture, repair or dispose is still a major concern to automotive industries. Prior to this study, no specific approach is reported as a guide line to determine critical crankpins that justifying economical remanufacturing process. Traditional cost accounting (TCA) has been used widely by remanufacturing industries but this is not a good measure of estimating the actual manufacturing costs per unit as compared to activity based costing (ABC). However, the application of ABC method in estimating remanufactured cost is rarely reported. These issues were handled separately without a proper integration to make remanufacturing decision which frequently results into uneconomical operating cost and finally the decision becomes less accurate. The aim of this work is to develop a suitable pattern recognition method for classifying crankshaft into three different EOL groups and subsequently evaluates the critical and non-critical crankpins of the used crankshaft using Mahalanobis-Taguchi System (MTS). A remanufacturability assessment technique was developed using Microsoft Excel spreadsheet on pattern recognition and critical crankpins evaluation, and finally integrates these information into a similar spreadsheet with ABC to make decision whether the crankshaft is to be remanufactured, repaired or disposed. The developed scatter diagram was able to recognize group pattern of EOL crankshaft which later was successfully used to determine critical crankpins required for remanufacturing process. The proposed method can serve as a useful approach to the remanufacturing industries for systematically evaluate and decide EOL components for further processing. Case study on six engine models, the result shows that three engines can be securely remanufactured at above 40% profit margin while another two engines are still viable to remanufacture but with less profit margin. In contrast, only two engines can be securely remanufactured due overcharge when using TCA. This inaccuracy affects significantly the overall remanufacturing activities and revenue of the industry. In conclusion, the proposed integration on pattern recognition, parameter evaluation and costing assists the decision making process to effectively remanufacture EOL automotive components as confirmed by Head of workshop of Motor Teknologi Industri Sdn. Bhd

Prognostics and health monitoring of high power LED

Prognostics is seen as a key component of health usage monitoring systems, where prognostics algorithms can both detect anomalies in the behaviour/performance of a micro-device/system, and predict its remaining useful life when subjected to monitored operational and environmental conditions. Light Emitting Diodes (LEDs) are optoelectronic micro-devices that are now replacing traditional incadescent and fluorescent lighting, as they have many advantages including higher reliability, greater energy efficiency, long life time and faster switching speed. For some LED applications there is a requirement to monitor the health of LED lighting systems and predict when failure is likely to occur. This is very important in the case of safety critical and emergency applications. This paper provides both experimental and theoretical results that demonstrate the use of prognostics and health monitoring techniques for high power LEDs subjected to harsh operating conditions

Prognostics and health management of light emitting diodes

Prognostics is an engineering process of diagnosing, predicting the remaining useful life and estimating the reliability of systems and products. Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) has emerged in the last decade as one of the most efficient approaches in failure prevention, reliability estimation and remaining useful life predictions of various engineering systems and products. Light Emitting Diodes (LEDs) are optoelectronic micro-devices that are now replacing traditional incandescent and fluorescent lighting, as they have many advantages including higher reliability, greater energy efficiency, long life time and faster switching speed. Even though LEDs have high reliability and long life time, manufacturers and lighting systems designers still need to assess the reliability of LED lighting systems and the failures in the LED. This research provides both experimental and theoretical results that demonstrate the use of prognostics and health monitoring techniques for high power LEDs subjected to harsh operating conditions. Data driven, model driven and fusion prognostics approaches are developed to monitor and identify LED failures, based on the requirement for the light output power. The approaches adopted in this work are validated and can be used to assess the life of an LED lighting system after their deployment based on the power of the light output emitted. The data driven techniques are only based on monitoring selected operational and performance indicators using sensors whereas the model driven technique is based on sensor data as well as on a developed empirical model. Fusion approach is also developed using the data driven and the model driven approaches to the LED. Real-time implementation of developed approaches are also investigated and discussed

DEVELOPMENT OF DIAGNOSTIC AND PROGNOSTIC METHODOLOGIES FOR ELECTRONIC SYSTEMS BASED ON MAHALANOBIS DISTANCE

Diagnostic and prognostic capabilities are one aspect of the many interrelated and complementary functions in the field of Prognostic and Health Management (PHM). These capabilities are sought after by industries in order to provide maximum operational availability of their products, maximum usage life, minimum periodic maintenance inspections, lower inventory cost, accurate tracking of part life, and no false alarms. Several challenges associated with the development and implementation of these capabilities are the consideration of a system's dynamic behavior under various operating environments; complex system architecture where the components that form the overall system have complex interactions with each other with feed-forward and feedback loops of instructions; the unavailability of failure precursors; unseen events; and the absence of unique mathematical techniques that can address fault and failure events in various multivariate systems. The Mahalanobis distance methodology distinguishes multivariable data groups in a multivariate system by a univariate distance measure calculated from the normalized value of performance parameters and their correlation coefficients. The Mahalanobis distance measure does not suffer from the scaling effect--a situation where the variability of one parameter masks the variability of another parameter, which happens when the measurement ranges or scales of two parameters are different. A literature review showed that the Mahalanobis distance has been used for classification purposes. In this thesis, the Mahalanobis distance measure is utilized for fault detection, fault isolation, degradation identification, and prognostics. For fault detection, a probabilistic approach is developed to establish threshold Mahalanobis distance, such that presence of a fault in a product can be identified and the product can be classified as healthy or unhealthy. A technique is presented to construct a control chart for Mahalanobis distance for detecting trends and biasness in system health or performance. An error function is defined to establish fault-specific threshold Mahalanobis distance. A fault isolation approach is developed to isolate faults by identifying parameters that are associated with that fault. This approach utilizes the design-of-experiment concept for calculating residual Mahalanobis distance for each parameter (i.e., the contribution of each parameter to a system's health determination). An expected contribution range for each parameter estimated from the distribution of residual Mahalanobis distance is used to isolate the parameters that are responsible for a system's anomalous behavior. A methodology to detect degradation in a system's health using a health indicator is developed. The health indicator is defined as the weighted sum of a histogram bin's fractional contribution. The histogram's optimal bin width is determined from the number of data points in a moving window. This moving window approach is utilized for progressive estimation of the health indicator over time. The health indicator is compared with a threshold value defined from the system's healthy data to indicate the system's health or performance degradation. A symbolic time series-based health assessment approach is developed. Prognostic measures are defined for detecting anomalies in a product and predicting a product's time and probability of approaching a faulty condition. These measures are computed from a hidden Markov model developed from the symbolic representation of product dynamics. The symbolic representation of a product's dynamics is obtained by representing a Mahalanobis distance time series in symbolic form. Case studies were performed to demonstrate the capability of the proposed methodology for real time health monitoring. Notebook computers were exposed to a set of environmental conditions representative of the extremes of their life cycle profiles. The performance parameters were monitored in situ during the experiments, and the resulting data were used as a training dataset. The dataset was also used to identify specific parameter behavior, estimate correlation among parameters, and extract features for defining a healthy baseline. Field-returned computer data and data corresponding to artificially injected faults in computers were used as test data

Improved wind turbine monitoring using operational data

With wind energy becoming a major source of energy, there is a pressing need to reduce all associated costs to be competitive in a market that might be fully subsidy-free in the near future. Before thousands of wind turbines were installed all over the world, research in e.g. understanding aerodynamics, developing new materials, designing better gearboxes, improving power electronics etc., helped to cut down wind turbine manufacturing costs. It might be assumed, that this would be sufficient to reduce the costs of wind energy as the resource, the wind itself, is free of costs. However, it has become clear that the operation and maintenance of wind turbines contributes significantly to the overall cost of energy. Harsh environmental conditions and the frequently remote locations of the turbines makes maintenance of wind turbines challenging. Just recently, the industry realised that a move from reactive and scheduled maintenance towards preventative or condition-based maintenance will be crucial to further reduce costs. Knowing the condition of the wind turbine is key for any optimisation of operation and maintenance. There are various possibilities to install advanced sensors and monitoring systems developed in recent years. However, these will inevitably incur new costs that need to be worthwhile and retro-fits to existing turbines might not always be feasible. In contrast, this work focuses on ways to use operational data as recorded by the turbine's Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition (SCADA) system, which is installed in all modern wind turbines for operating purposes -- without additional costs. SCADA data usually contain information about the environmental conditions (e.g. wind speed, ambient temperature), the operation of the turbine (power production, rotational speed, pitch angle) and potentially the system's health status (temperatures, vibration). These measurements are commonly recorded in ten-minutely averages and might be seen as indirect and top-level information about the turbine's condition. Firstly, this thesis discusses the use of operational data to monitor the power performance to assess the overall efficiency of wind turbines and to analyse and optimise maintenance. In a sensitivity study, the financial consequences of imperfect maintenance are evaluated based on case study data and compared with environmental effects such as blade icing. It is shown how decision-making of wind farm operators could be supported with detailed `what-if' scenario analyses. Secondly, model-based monitoring of SCADA temperatures is investigated. This approach tries to identify hidden changes in the load-dependent fluctuations of drivetrain temperatures that can potentially reveal increased degradation and possible imminent failure. A detailed comparison of machine learning regression techniques and model configurations is conducted based on data from four wind farms with varying properties. The results indicate that the detailed setup of the model is very important while the selection of the modelling technique might be less relevant than expected. Ways to establish reliable failure detection are discussed and a condition index is developed based on an ensemble of different models and anomaly measures. However, the findings also highlight that better documentation of maintenance is required to further improve data-driven condition monitoring approaches. In the next part, the capabilities of operational data are explored in a study with data from both the SCADA system and a Condition Monitoring System (CMS) based on drivetrain vibrations. Analyses of signal similarity and data clusters reveal signal relationships and potential for synergistic effects of the different data sources. An application of machine learning techniques demonstrates that the alarms of the commercial CMS can be predicted in certain cases with SCADA data alone. Finally, the benefits of having wind turbines in farms are investigated in the context of condition monitoring. Several approaches are developed to improve failure detection based on operational statistics, CMS vibrations or SCADA temperatures. It is demonstrated that utilising comparisons with neighbouring turbines might be beneficial to get earlier and more reliable warnings of imminent failures. This work has been part of the Advanced Wind Energy Systems Operation and Maintenance Expertise (AWESOME) project, a European consortium with companies, universities and research centres in the wind energy sector from Spain, Italy, Germany, Denmark, Norway and UK. Parts of this work were developed in collaboration with other fellows in the project (as marked and explained in footnotes)

Failure Prognosis of Wind Turbine Components

Wind energy is playing an increasingly significant role in the World\u27s energy supply mix. In North America, many utility-scale wind turbines are approaching, or are beyond the half-way point of their originally anticipated lifespan. Accurate estimation of the times to failure of major turbine components can provide wind farm owners insight into how to optimize the life and value of their farm assets. This dissertation deals with fault detection and failure prognosis of critical wind turbine sub-assemblies, including generators, blades, and bearings based on data-driven approaches. The main aim of the data-driven methods is to utilize measurement data from the system and forecast the Remaining Useful Life (RUL) of faulty components accurately and efficiently. The main contributions of this dissertation are in the application of ALTA lifetime analysis to help illustrate a possible relationship between varying loads and generators reliability, a wavelet-based Probability Density Function (PDF) to effectively detecting incipient wind turbine blade failure, an adaptive Bayesian algorithm for modeling the uncertainty inherent in the bearings RUL prediction horizon, and a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) for characterizing the bearing damage progression based on varying operating states to mimic a real condition in which wind turbines operate and to recognize that the damage progression is a function of the stress applied to each component using data from historical failures across three different Canadian wind farms

Prognostic and health management for engineering systems: a review of the data-driven approach and algorithms

Prognostics and health management (PHM) has become an important component of many engineering systems and products, where algorithms are used to detect anomalies, diagnose faults and predict remaining useful lifetime (RUL). PHM can provide many advantages to users and maintainers. Although primary goals are to ensure the safety, provide state of the health and estimate RUL of the components and systems, there are also financial benefits such as operational and maintenance cost reductions and extended lifetime. This study aims at reviewing the current status of algorithms and methods used to underpin different existing PHM approaches. The focus is on providing a structured and comprehensive classification of the existing state-of-the-art PHM approaches, data-driven approaches and algorithms

Exploiting Robust Multivariate Statistics and Data Driven Techniques for Prognosis and Health Management

This thesis explores state of the art robust multivariate statistical methods and data driven techniques to holistically perform prognostics and health management (PHM). This provides a means to enable the early detection, diagnosis and prognosis of future asset failures. In this thesis, the developed PHM methodology is applied to wind turbine drive train components, specifically focussed on planetary gearbox bearings and gears. A novel methodology for the identification of relevant time-domain statistical features based upon robust statistical process control charts is presented for high frequency bearing accelerometer data. In total, 28 time-domain statistical features were evaluated for their capabilities as leading indicators of degradation. The results of this analysis describe the extensible multivariate “Moments’ model” for the encapsulation of bearing operational behaviour. This is presented, enabling the early degradation of detection, predictive diagnostics and estimation of remaining useful life (RUL). Following this, an extended physics of failure model based upon low frequency SCADA data for the quantification of wind turbine gearbox condition is described. This extends the state of the art, whilst defining robust performance charts for quantifying component condition. Normalisation against loading of the turbine and transient states based upon empirical data is performed in the bivariate domain, with extensibility into the multivariate domain if necessary. Prognosis of asset condition is found to be possible with the assistance of artificial neural networks in order to provide business intelligence to the planning and scheduling of effective maintenance actions. These multivariate condition models are explored with multivariate distance and similarity metrics for to exploit traditional data mining techniques for tacit knowledge extraction, ensemble diagnosis and prognosis. Estimation of bearing remaining useful life is found to be possible, with the derived technique correlating strongly to bearing life (r = .96

Stochastic RUL calculation enhanced with TDNN-based IGBT failure modeling

Power electronics are widely used in the transport and energy sectors. Hence, the reliability of these power electronic components is critical to reducing the maintenance cost of these assets. It is vital that the health of these components is monitored for increasing the safety and availability of a system. The aim of this paper is to develop a prognostic technique for estimating the remaining useful life (RUL) of power electronic components. There is a need for an efficient prognostic algorithm that is embeddable and able to support on-board real-time decision-making. A time delay neural network (TDNN) is used in the development of failure modes for an insulated gate bipolar transistor (IGBT). Initially, the time delay neural network is constructed from training IGBTs' ageing samples. A stochastic process is performed for the estimation results to compute the probability of the health state during the degradation process. The proposed TDNN fusion with a statistical approach benefits the probability distribution function by improving the accuracy of the results of the TDDN in RUL prediction. The RUL (i.e., mean and confidence bounds) is then calculated from the simulation of the estimated degradation states. The prognostic results are evaluated using root mean square error (RMSE) and relative accuracy (RA) prognostic evaluation metrics

Using SCADA data for wind turbine condition monitoring - a review

The ever increasing size of wind turbines and the move to build them offshore have accelerated the need for optimised maintenance strategies in order to reduce operating costs. Predictive maintenance requires detailed information on the condition of turbines. Due to the high costs of dedicated condition monitoring systems based on mainly vibration measurements, the use of data from the turbine Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition (SCADA) system is appealing. This review discusses recent research using SCADA data for failure detection and condition monitoring, focussing on approaches which have already proved their ability to detect anomalies in data from real turbines. Approaches are categorised as (i) trending, (ii) clustering, (iii) normal behaviour modelling, (iv) damage modelling and (v) assessment of alarms and expert systems. Potential for future research on the use of SCADA data for advanced turbine condition monitoring is discussed