Evaluating Algorithm Performance Metrics Tailored for Prognostics

Prognostics has taken a center stage in Condition Based Maintenance (CBM) where it is desired to estimate Remaining Useful Life (RUL) of the system so that remedial measures may be taken in advance to avoid catastrophic events or unwanted downtimes. Validation of such predictions is an important but difficult proposition and a lack of appropriate evaluation methods renders prognostics meaningless. Evaluation methods currently used in the research community are not standardized and in many cases do not sufficiently assess key performance aspects expected out of a prognostics algorithm. In this paper we introduce several new evaluation metrics tailored for prognostics and show that they can effectively evaluate various algorithms as compared to other conventional metrics. Specifically four algorithms namely; Relevance Vector Machine (RVM), Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and Polynomial Regression (PR) are compared. These algorithms vary in complexity and their ability to manage uncertainty around predicted estimates. Results show that the new metrics rank these algorithms in different manner and depending on the requirements and constraints suitable metrics may be chosen. Beyond these results, these metrics offer ideas about how metrics suitable to prognostics may be designed so that the evaluation procedure can be standardized.

Prognostic Reasoner based adaptive power management system for a more electric aircraft

This research work presents a novel approach that addresses the concept of an adaptive power management system design and development framed in the Prognostics and Health Monitoring(PHM) perspective of an Electrical power Generation and distribution system(EPGS).PHM algorithms were developed to detect the health status of EPGS components which can accurately predict the failures and also able to calculate the Remaining Useful Life(RUL), and in many cases reconfigure for the identified system and subsystem faults. By introducing these approach on Electrical power Management system controller, we are gaining a few minutes lead time to failures with an accurate prediction horizon on critical systems and subsystems components that may introduce catastrophic secondary damages including loss of aircraft. The warning time on critical components and related system reconfiguration must permits safe return to landing as the minimum criteria and would enhance safety. A distributed architecture has been developed for the dynamic power management for electrical distribution system by which all the electrically supplied loads can be effectively controlled.A hybrid mathematical model based on the Direct-Quadrature (d-q) axis transformation of the generator have been formulated for studying various structural and parametric faults. The different failure modes were generated by injecting faults into the electrical power system using a fault injection mechanism. The data captured during these studies have been recorded to form a “Failure Database” for electrical system. A hardware in loop experimental study were carried out to validate the power management algorithm with FPGA-DSP controller. In order to meet the reliability requirements a Tri-redundant electrical power management system based on DSP and FPGA has been develope

Extreme Learning Machine Based Prognostics of Battery Life

This paper presents a prognostic scheme for estimating the remaining useful life of Lithium-ion batteries. The proposed scheme utilizes a prediction module that aims to obtain precise predictions for both short and long prediction horizons. The prediction module makes use of extreme learning machines for one-step and multi-step ahead predictions, using various prediction strategies, including iterative, direct and DirRec, which use the constant-current experimental capacity data for the estimation of the remaining useful life. The data-driven prognostic approach is highly dependent on the availability of high quantity of quality observations. Insufficient amount of available data can result in unsatisfactory prognostics. In this paper, the prognostics scheme is utilized to estimate the remaining useful life of a battery, with insufficient direct data available, but taking advantage of observations available from a fleet of similar batteries with similar working conditions. Experimental results show that the proposed prognostic scheme provides a fast and efficient estimation of the remaining useful life of the batteries and achieves superior results when compared with various state-of-the-art prediction techniques

Metrics for Offline Evaluation of Prognostic Performance

Prognostic performance evaluation has gained significant attention in the past few years. Currently, prognostics concepts lack standard definitions and suffer from ambiguous and inconsistent interpretations. This lack of standards is in part due to the varied end-user requirements for different applications, time scales, available information, domain dynamics, etc. to name a few. The research community has used a variety of metrics largely based on convenience and their respective requirements. Very little attention has been focused on establishing a standardized approach to compare different efforts. This paper presents several new evaluation metrics tailored for prognostics that were recently introduced and were shown to effectively evaluate various algorithms as compared to other conventional metrics. Specifically, this paper presents a detailed discussion on how these metrics should be interpreted and used. These metrics have the capability of incorporating probabilistic uncertainty estimates from prognostic algorithms. In addition to quantitative assessment they also offer a comprehensive visual perspective that can be used in designing the prognostic system. Several methods are suggested to customize these metrics for different applications. Guidelines are provided to help choose one method over another based on distribution characteristics. Various issues faced by prognostics and its performance evaluation are discussed followed by a formal notational framework to help standardize subsequent developments

On Applying the Prognostic Performance Metrics

Prognostics performance evaluation has gained significant attention in the past few years. As prognostics technology matures and more sophisticated methods for prognostic uncertainty management are developed, a standardized methodology for performance evaluation becomes extremely important to guide improvement efforts in a constructive manner. This paper is in continuation of previous efforts where several new evaluation metrics tailored for prognostics were introduced and were shown to effectively evaluate various algorithms as compared to other conventional metrics. Specifically, this paper presents a detailed discussion on how these metrics should be interpreted and used. Several shortcomings identified, while applying these metrics to a variety of real applications, are also summarized along with discussions that attempt to alleviate these problems. Further, these metrics have been enhanced to include the capability of incorporating probability distribution information from prognostic algorithms as opposed to evaluation based on point estimates only. Several methods have been suggested and guidelines have been provided to help choose one method over another based on probability distribution characteristics. These approaches also offer a convenient and intuitive visualization of algorithm performance with respect to some of these new metrics like prognostic horizon and alpha-lambda performance, and also quantify the corresponding performance while incorporating the uncertainty information

Online Bearing Remaining Useful Life Prediction Based on a Novel Degradation Indicator and Convolutional Neural Networks

In industrial applications, nearly half the failures of motors are caused by the degradation of rolling element bearings (REBs). Therefore, accurately estimating the remaining useful life (RUL) for REBs are of crucial importance to ensure the reliability and safety of mechanical systems. To tackle this challenge, model-based approaches are often limited by the complexity of mathematical modeling. Conventional data-driven approaches, on the other hand, require massive efforts to extract the degradation features and construct health index. In this paper, a novel online data-driven framework is proposed to exploit the adoption of deep convolutional neural networks (CNN) in predicting the RUL of bearings. More concretely, the raw vibrations of training bearings are first processed using the Hilbert-Huang transform (HHT) and a novel nonlinear degradation indicator is constructed as the label for learning. The CNN is then employed to identify the hidden pattern between the extracted degradation indicator and the vibration of training bearings, which makes it possible to estimate the degradation of the test bearings automatically. Finally, testing bearings' RULs are predicted by using a $\epsilon$-support vector regression model. The superior performance of the proposed RUL estimation framework, compared with the state-of-the-art approaches, is demonstrated through the experimental results. The generality of the proposed CNN model is also validated by transferring to bearings undergoing different operating conditions

Prognostics and health aware model predictive control of wind turbines

Wind turbines components are subject to considerable stresses and fatigue due to extreme environmental conditions to which they are exposed, especially those located offshore. Also, the most common faults present in wind turbine components have been investigated for years by the research community and that has led to propose a fault diagnosis and fault tolerant control wind turbine benchmark which include a set of faults that affect the sensors and actuators of several wind turbine components. This thesis presents some contributions to the fields of fault diagnosis, fault-tolerant control, prognostics and its integration with wind turbine control which leads to proposing a control approach called health-aware model predictive control (HAMPC). The contributions are summarized below: - Model-based fault diagnosis: to perform fault detection and isolation interval-based observers together with a set of analytical redundant relations (ARRs) are obtained based on a structural analysis and the fault signature matrix that relates the ARRs with the faults. - Fault tolerant control: it is proposed a fault tolerant control scheme that integrates fault detection and an algorithm for fault accommodation. The scheme has the objective to avoid the increment of blades and tower loads when a fault in the rotor azimuth angle sensor occurs using the individual pitch control technique (IPC). - Wind turbine blades fatigue prognostics and degradation: fatigue is assessed using the rainflow counting algorithm which is used to estimate the accumulated damage and for degradation, it is used a stiffness degradation model of blades material which is used to make predictions of remaining useful life (RUL). - Wind turbines health control: the module for the health of the system based on fatigue damage estimation and RUL predictions is integrated with model predictive control (MPC) leading to the proposed control approach (HAMPC). The contributions presented in this thesis have been validated on a wind turbine study case that uses a 5MW wind turbine reference model implemented in a high fidelity wind turbine simulator (FAST).Els components dels aerogeneradors estan sotmesos a considerable estrès i fatiga, degut a les condicions ambientals extremes a les quals estan exposats, especialment els localitzats en alta mar. Per aquest motiu, al comunitat científica durant els últims anys ha investigat les averies més comunes presents en els aerogeneradors, fet que ha portat a proposar un cas d'estudi de diagnosi i control tolerant de fallades que inclou un conjunt de fallades que afecten a diversos components dels aerogeneradors. Aquesta tesi presenta algunes contribucions en els camps de la diagnosi de fallades, el control tolerant de fallades i la prognosi, així com la seva integració amb el control d'aerogeneradors, fet que ha portat a proposar una tècnica de control anomenada control predictiu basada en models conscients de la salut del sistema (HAMPC). Concretament les aportacions es poden resumir en: - Diagnosi de fallades basada en models: per a la detecció s'utilitzen observadors intervalars i l'aïllament de la fallada es fa en base el conjunt d'ARRs obtinguts de l'anàlisi estructural i de la matriu de signatures de fallades que relaciona les ARRs amb les fallades. - Control tolerant de fallades: es proposa un esquema de control tolerant a fallades que integra la detecció de fallades i algoritme d'acomodació de fallades, i té per objectiu evitar l'augment de càrregues en la pala i la torre quan es produeix una fallada en el sensor azimuth quan es fa un control individual de la inclinació de les pales (IPC). - Prognosi de la fatiga i la degradació de les pales: la fatiga s'avalua amb un algorisme denominat "rainflow counting" amb el qual es fa estimació del dany acumulat i per a la degradació es fa servir un model de degradació de la rigidesa del material amb el qual es fan prediccions de la vida útil restant (RUL). - Control de la salut d'aerogeneradors: s'ha integrat la gestió de la salut del sistema basat en danys per fatiga o prediccions de RUL amb control predictiu basat en models (MPC) donant lloc al control que anomenem HAMPC. Les contribucions presentades en aquesta tesi han sigut validades en un cas d'estudi d'aerogeneradors basat en un aerogenerador de referència de 5MW de potència implementat en el simulador d'aerogeneradors d'alta fidelitat conegut amb el nom de FAST.Postprint (published version

Prognostics and health management for maintenance practitioners - Review, implementation and tools evaluation.

In literature, prognostics and health management (PHM) systems have been studied by many researchers from many different engineering fields to increase system reliability, availability, safety and to reduce the maintenance cost of engineering assets. Many works conducted in PHM research concentrate on designing robust and accurate models to assess the health state of components for particular applications to support decision making. Models which involve mathematical interpretations, assumptions and approximations make PHM hard to understand and implement in real world applications, especially by maintenance practitioners in industry. Prior knowledge to implement PHM in complex systems is crucial to building highly reliable systems. To fill this gap and motivate industry practitioners, this paper attempts to provide a comprehensive review on PHM domain and discusses important issues on uncertainty quantification, implementation aspects next to prognostics feature and tool evaluation. In this paper, PHM implementation steps consists of; (1) critical component analysis, (2) appropriate sensor selection for condition monitoring (CM), (3) prognostics feature evaluation under data analysis and (4) prognostics methodology and tool evaluation matrices derived from PHM literature. Besides PHM implementation aspects, this paper also reviews previous and on-going research in high-speed train bogies to highlight problems faced in train industry and emphasize the significance of PHM for further investigations

A data-driven failure prognostics method based on mixture of gaussians hidden markov models

International audienceThis paper addresses a data-driven prognostics method for the estimation of the Remaining Useful Life (RUL) and the associated confidence value of bearings. The proposed method is based on the utilization of the Wavelet Packet Decomposition (WPD) technique, and the Mixture of Gaussians Hidden Markov Models (MoG-HMM). The method relies on two phases: an off-line phase, and an on-line phase. During the first phase, the raw data provided by the sensors are first processed to extract features in the form of WPD coefficients. The extracted features are then fed to dedicated learning algorithms to estimate the parameters of a corresponding MoG-HMM, which best fits the degradation phenomenon. The generated model is exploited during the second phase to continuously assess the current health state of the physical component, and to estimate its RUL value with the associated confidence. The developed method is tested on benchmark data taken from the "NASA prognostics data repository" related to several experiments of failures on bearings done under different operating conditions. Furthermore, the method is compared to traditional time-feature prognostics and simulation results are given at the end of the paper. The results of the developed prognostics method, particularly the estimation of the RUL, can help improving the availability, reliability, and security while reducing the maintenance costs. Indeed, the RUL and associated confidence value are relevant information which can be used to take appropriate maintenance and exploitation decisions. In practice, this information may help the maintainers to prepare the necessary material and human resources before the occurrence of a failure. Thus, the traditional maintenance policies involving corrective and preventive maintenance can be replaced by condition based maintenance