Data-level hybrid strategy selection for disk fault prediction model based on multivariate GAN

Data class imbalance is a common problem in classification problems, where minority class samples are often more important and more costly to misclassify in a classification task. Therefore, it is very important to solve the data class imbalance classification problem. The SMART dataset exhibits an evident class imbalance, comprising a substantial quantity of healthy samples and a comparatively limited number of defective samples. This dataset serves as a reliable indicator of the disc's health status. In this paper, we obtain the best balanced disk SMART dataset for a specific classification model by mixing and integrating the data synthesised by multivariate generative adversarial networks (GAN) to balance the disk SMART dataset at the data level; and combine it with genetic algorithms to obtain higher disk fault classification prediction accuracy on a specific classification model

Data-driven Models for Remaining Useful Life Estimation of Aircraft Engines and Hard Disk Drives

Failure of physical devices can cause inconvenience, loss of money, and sometimes even deaths. To improve the reliability of these devices, we need to know the remaining useful life (RUL) of a device at a given point in time. Data-driven approaches use data from a physical device to build a model that can estimate the RUL. They have shown great performance and are often simpler than traditional model-based approaches. Typical statistical and machine learning approaches are often not suited for sequential data prediction. Recurrent Neural Networks are designed to work with sequential data but suffer from the vanishing gradient problem over time. Therefore, I explore the use of Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks for RUL prediction. I perform two experiments. First, I train bidirectional LSTM networks on the Backblaze hard-disk drive dataset. I achieve an accuracy of 96.4\% on a 60 day time window, state-of-the-art performance. Additionally, I use a unique standardization method that standardizes each hard drive instance independently and explore the benefits and downsides of this approach. Finally, I train LSTM models on the NASA N-CMAPSS dataset to predict aircraft engine remaining useful life. I train models on each of the eight sub-datasets, achieving a RMSE of 6.304 on one of the sub-datasets, the second-best in the current literature. I also compare an LSTM network\u27s performance to the performance of a Random Forest and Temporal Convolutional Neural Network model, demonstrating the LSTM network\u27s superior performance. I find that LSTM networks are capable predictors for device remaining useful life and show a thorough model development process that can be reproduced to develop LSTM models for various RUL prediction tasks. These models will be able to improve the reliability of devices such as aircraft engines and hard-disk drives

Enabling electronic prognostics using thermal data

Prognostics is a process of assessing the extent of deviation or degradation of a product from its expected normal operating condition, and then, based on continuous monitoring, predicting the future reliability of the product. By being able to determine when a product will fail, procedures can be developed to provide advanced warning of failures, optimize maintenance, reduce life cycle costs, and improve the design, qualification and logistical support of fielded and future systems. In the case of electronics, the reliability is often influenced by thermal loads, in the form of steady-state temperatures, power cycles, temperature gradients, ramp rates, and dwell times. If one can continuously monitor the thermal loads, in-situ, this data can be used in conjunction with precursor reasoning algorithms and stress-and-damage models to enable prognostics. This paper discusses approaches to enable electronic prognostics and provides a case study of prognostics using thermal data.Comment: Submitted on behalf of TIMA Editions (http://irevues.inist.fr/tima-editions

Model-Augmented Estimation of Conditional Mutual Information for Feature Selection

Markov blanket feature selection, while theoretically optimal, is generally challenging to implement. This is due to the shortcomings of existing approaches to conditional independence (CI) testing, which tend to struggle either with the curse of dimensionality or computational complexity. We propose a novel two-step approach which facilitates Markov blanket feature selection in high dimensions. First, neural networks are used to map features to low-dimensional representations. In the second step, CI testing is performed by applying the $k$-NN conditional mutual information estimator to the learned feature maps. The mappings are designed to ensure that mapped samples both preserve information and share similar information about the target variable if and only if they are close in Euclidean distance. We show that these properties boost the performance of the $k$-NN estimator in the second step. The performance of the proposed method is evaluated on both synthetic and real data.Comment: Accepted to UAI 202

Examining the impact of critical attributes on hard drive failure times: Multi-state models for left-truncated and right-censored semi-competing risks data

\ua9 2023 The Authors. Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. The ability to predict failures in hard disk drives (HDDs) is a major objective of HDD manufacturers since avoiding unexpected failures may prevent data loss, improve service reliability, and reduce data center downtime. Most HDDs are equipped with a threshold-based monitoring system named self-monitoring, analysis and reporting technology (SMART). The system collects several performance metrics, called SMART attributes, and detects anomalies that may indicate incipient failures. SMART works as a nascent failure detection method and does not estimate the HDDs\u27 remaining useful life. We define critical attributes and critical states for hard drives using SMART attributes and fit multi-state models to the resulting semi-competing risks data. The multi-state models provide a coherent and novel way to model the failure time of a hard drive and allow us to examine the impact of critical attributes on the failure time of a hard drive. We derive dynamic predictions of conditional survival probabilities, which are adaptive to the state of the drive. Using a dataset of HDDs equipped with SMART, we find that drives are more likely to fail after entering critical states. We evaluate the predictive accuracy of the proposed models with a case study of HDDs equipped with SMART, using the time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and the expected prediction error (PE). The results suggest that accounting for changes in the critical attributes improves the accuracy of dynamic predictions

Review and Analysis of Failure Detection and Prevention Techniques in IT Infrastructure Monitoring

Maintaining the health of IT infrastructure components for improved reliability and availability is a research and innovation topic for many years. Identification and handling of failures are crucial and challenging due to the complexity of IT infrastructure. System logs are the primary source of information to diagnose and fix failures. In this work, we address three essential research dimensions about failures, such as the need for failure handling in IT infrastructure, understanding the contribution of system-generated log in failure detection and reactive & proactive approaches used to deal with failure situations. This study performs a comprehensive analysis of existing literature by considering three prominent aspects as log preprocessing, anomaly & failure detection, and failure prevention. With this coherent review, we (1) presume the need for IT infrastructure monitoring to avoid downtime, (2) examine the three types of approaches for anomaly and failure detection such as a rule-based, correlation method and classification, and (3) fabricate the recommendations for researchers on further research guidelines. As far as the authors\u27 knowledge, this is the first comprehensive literature review on IT infrastructure monitoring techniques. The review has been conducted with the help of meta-analysis and comparative study of machine learning and deep learning techniques. This work aims to outline significant research gaps in the area of IT infrastructure failure detection. This work will help future researchers understand the advantages and limitations of current methods and select an adequate approach to their problem

Failure Prediction using Machine Learning in a Virtualised HPC System and application

YesFailure is an increasingly important issue in high performance computing and cloud systems. As large-scale systems continue to grow in scale and complexity, mitigating the impact of failure and providing accurate predictions with sufficient lead time remains a challenging research problem. Traditional existing fault-tolerance strategies such as regular check-pointing and replication are not adequate because of the emerging complexities of high performance computing systems. This necessitates the importance of having an effective as well as proactive failure management approach in place aimed at minimizing the effect of failure within the system. With the advent of machine learning techniques, the ability to learn from past information to predict future pattern of behaviours makes it possible to predict potential system failure more accurately. Thus, in this paper, we explore the predictive abilities of machine learning by applying a number of algorithms to improve the accuracy of failure prediction. We have developed a failure prediction model using time series and machine learning, and performed comparison based tests on the prediction accuracy. The primary algorithms we considered are the Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest(RF), k-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Classi cation and Regression Trees (CART) and Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA). Experimental results indicates that the average prediction accuracy of our model using SVM when predicting failure is 90% accurate and effective compared to other algorithms. This f inding implies that our method can effectively predict all possible future system and application failures within the system.Petroleum Technology Development Fund (PTDF) funding support under the OSS scheme with grant number (PTDF/E/OSS/PHD/MB/651/14

An approach to failure prediction in a cloud based environment

yesFailure in a cloud system is defined as an even that occurs when the delivered service deviates from the correct intended behavior. As the cloud computing systems continue to grow in scale and complexity, there is an urgent need for cloud service providers (CSP) to guarantee a reliable on-demand resource to their customers in the presence of faults thereby fulfilling their service level agreement (SLA). Component failures in cloud systems are very familiar phenomena. However, large cloud service providers’ data centers should be designed to provide a certain level of availability to the business system. Infrastructure-as-a-service (Iaas) cloud delivery model presents computational resources (CPU and memory), storage resources and networking capacity that ensures high availability in the presence of such failures. The data in-production-faults recorded within a 2 years period has been studied and analyzed from the National Energy Research Scientific computing center (NERSC). Using the real-time data collected from the Computer Failure Data Repository (CFDR), this paper presents the performance of two machine learning (ML) algorithms, Linear Regression (LR) Model and Support Vector Machine (SVM) with a Linear Gaussian kernel for predicting hardware failures in a real-time cloud environment to improve system availability. The performance of the two algorithms have been rigorously evaluated using K-folds cross-validation technique. Furthermore, steps and procedure for future studies has been presented. This research will aid computer hardware companies and cloud service providers (CSP) in designing a reliable fault-tolerant system by providing a better device selection, thereby improving system availability and minimizing unscheduled system downtime

Failure prediction using machine learning in a virtualised HPC system and application

Failure is an increasingly important issue in high performance computing and cloud systems. As large-scale systems continue to grow in scale and complexity, mitigating the impact of failure and providing accurate predictions with sufficient lead time remains a challenging research problem. Traditional existing fault-tolerance strategies such as regular check-pointing and replication are not adequate because of the emerging complexities of high performance computing systems. This necessitates the importance of having an effective as well as proactive failure management approach in place aimed at minimizing the effect of failure within the system. With the advent of machine learning techniques, the ability to learn from past information to predict future pattern of behaviours makes it possible to predict potential system failure more accurately. Thus, in this paper, we explore the predictive abilities of machine learning by applying a number of algorithms to improve the accuracy of failure prediction. We have developed a failure prediction model using time series and machine learning, and performed comparison based tests on the prediction accuracy. The primary algorithms we considered are the support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), k-nearest neighbors (KNN), classification and regression trees (CART) and linear discriminant analysis (LDA). Experimental results indicates that the average prediction accuracy of our model using SVM when predicting failure is 90% accurate and effective compared to other algorithms. This finding implies that our method can effectively predict all possible future system and application failures within the system