2,982 research outputs found
Group Importance Sampling for Particle Filtering and MCMC
Bayesian methods and their implementations by means of sophisticated Monte
Carlo techniques have become very popular in signal processing over the last
years. Importance Sampling (IS) is a well-known Monte Carlo technique that
approximates integrals involving a posterior distribution by means of weighted
samples. In this work, we study the assignation of a single weighted sample
which compresses the information contained in a population of weighted samples.
Part of the theory that we present as Group Importance Sampling (GIS) has been
employed implicitly in different works in the literature. The provided analysis
yields several theoretical and practical consequences. For instance, we discuss
the application of GIS into the Sequential Importance Resampling framework and
show that Independent Multiple Try Metropolis schemes can be interpreted as a
standard Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, following the GIS approach. We also
introduce two novel Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques based on GIS.
The first one, named Group Metropolis Sampling method, produces a Markov chain
of sets of weighted samples. All these sets are then employed for obtaining a
unique global estimator. The second one is the Distributed Particle
Metropolis-Hastings technique, where different parallel particle filters are
jointly used to drive an MCMC algorithm. Different resampled trajectories are
compared and then tested with a proper acceptance probability. The novel
schemes are tested in different numerical experiments such as learning the
hyperparameters of Gaussian Processes, two localization problems in a wireless
sensor network (with synthetic and real data) and the tracking of vegetation
parameters given satellite observations, where they are compared with several
benchmark Monte Carlo techniques. Three illustrative Matlab demos are also
provided.Comment: To appear in Digital Signal Processing. Related Matlab demos are
provided at https://github.com/lukafree/GIS.gi
Langevin and Hamiltonian based Sequential MCMC for Efficient Bayesian Filtering in High-dimensional Spaces
Nonlinear non-Gaussian state-space models arise in numerous applications in
statistics and signal processing. In this context, one of the most successful
and popular approximation techniques is the Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC)
algorithm, also known as particle filtering. Nevertheless, this method tends to
be inefficient when applied to high dimensional problems. In this paper, we
focus on another class of sequential inference methods, namely the Sequential
Markov Chain Monte Carlo (SMCMC) techniques, which represent a promising
alternative to SMC methods. After providing a unifying framework for the class
of SMCMC approaches, we propose novel efficient strategies based on the
principle of Langevin diffusion and Hamiltonian dynamics in order to cope with
the increasing number of high-dimensional applications. Simulation results show
that the proposed algorithms achieve significantly better performance compared
to existing algorithms
A unified approach to mortality modelling using state-space framework: characterisation, identification, estimation and forecasting
This paper explores and develops alternative statistical representations and
estimation approaches for dynamic mortality models. The framework we adopt is
to reinterpret popular mortality models such as the Lee-Carter class of models
in a general state-space modelling methodology, which allows modelling,
estimation and forecasting of mortality under a unified framework. Furthermore,
we propose an alternative class of model identification constraints which is
more suited to statistical inference in filtering and parameter estimation
settings based on maximization of the marginalized likelihood or in Bayesian
inference. We then develop a novel class of Bayesian state-space models which
incorporate apriori beliefs about the mortality model characteristics as well
as for more flexible and appropriate assumptions relating to heteroscedasticity
that present in observed mortality data. We show that multiple period and
cohort effect can be cast under a state-space structure. To study long term
mortality dynamics, we introduce stochastic volatility to the period effect.
The estimation of the resulting stochastic volatility model of mortality is
performed using a recent class of Monte Carlo procedure specifically designed
for state and parameter estimation in Bayesian state-space models, known as the
class of particle Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. We illustrate the framework
we have developed using Danish male mortality data, and show that incorporating
heteroscedasticity and stochastic volatility markedly improves model fit
despite an increase of model complexity. Forecasting properties of the enhanced
models are examined with long term and short term calibration periods on the
reconstruction of life tables.Comment: 46 page
Joint state-parameter estimation of a nonlinear stochastic energy balance model from sparse noisy data
While nonlinear stochastic partial differential equations arise naturally in
spatiotemporal modeling, inference for such systems often faces two major
challenges: sparse noisy data and ill-posedness of the inverse problem of
parameter estimation. To overcome the challenges, we introduce a strongly
regularized posterior by normalizing the likelihood and by imposing physical
constraints through priors of the parameters and states. We investigate joint
parameter-state estimation by the regularized posterior in a physically
motivated nonlinear stochastic energy balance model (SEBM) for paleoclimate
reconstruction. The high-dimensional posterior is sampled by a particle Gibbs
sampler that combines MCMC with an optimal particle filter exploiting the
structure of the SEBM. In tests using either Gaussian or uniform priors based
on the physical range of parameters, the regularized posteriors overcome the
ill-posedness and lead to samples within physical ranges, quantifying the
uncertainty in estimation. Due to the ill-posedness and the regularization, the
posterior of parameters presents a relatively large uncertainty, and
consequently, the maximum of the posterior, which is the minimizer in a
variational approach, can have a large variation. In contrast, the posterior of
states generally concentrates near the truth, substantially filtering out
observation noise and reducing uncertainty in the unconstrained SEBM
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