Asking the Oracle: introducing forecasting principles into agent-based modelling

This paper presents a set of guidelines, imported from the field of forecasting, that can help social simulation and, more specifically, agent-based modelling practitioners to improve the predictive performance and the robustness of their models. The presentation starts with a discussion on the current debate on prediction in social processes, followed by an overview of the recent experience and lessons learnt from the field of forecasting. This is the basis to define standard practices when developing agent-based models under the perspective of forecasting experimentation. In this context, the guidelines are structured in six categories that correspond to key issues that should be taken into account when building a predictor agent-based model: the modelling process, the data adequacy, the space of solutions, the expert involvement, the validation, and the dissemination and replication. The application of these guidelines is illustrated with an existing agent-based model. We conclude by tackling some intrinsic difficulties that agent-based modelling often faces when dealing with prediction models.project Social Ambient Assisting Living - Methods (SociAAL), supported by Spanish Council for Science and Innovation, with grant TIN2011-28335-C02-01 and the Spanish MICINN project CSD2010-00034 (SimulPast CONSOLIDER-INGENIO 2010). We also thank the support from the Programa de Creación y Consolidación de Grupos de Investigación UCM-BSCH, GR35/10-A (921354

A Survey of Top-Level Ontologies - to inform the ontological choices for a Foundation Data Model

The Centre for Digital Built Britain has been tasked through the Digital Framework Task Group to develop an Information Management Framework (IMF) to support the development of a National Digital Twin (NDT) as set out in “The Pathway to an Information Management Framework” (Hetherington, 2020). A key component of the IMF is a Foundation Data Model (FDM), built upon a top-level ontology (TLO), as a basis for ensuring consistent data across the NDT. This document captures the results collected from a broad survey of top-level ontologies, conducted by the IMF technical team. It focuses on the core ontological choices made in their foundations and the pragmatic engineering consequences these have on how the ontologies can be applied and further scaled. This document will provide the basis for discussions on a suitable TLO for the FDM. It is also expected that these top-level ontologies will provide a resource whose components can be harvested and adapted for inclusion in the FDM

The Missing Link between Morphemic Assemblies and Behavioral Responses:a Bayesian Information-Theoretical model of lexical processing

We present the Bayesian Information-Theoretical (BIT) model of lexical processing: A mathematical model illustrating a novel approach to the modelling of language processes. The model shows how a neurophysiological theory of lexical processing relying on Hebbian association and neural assemblies can directly account for a variety of effects previously observed in behavioural experiments. We develop two information-theoretical measures of the distribution of usages of a morpheme or word, and use them to predict responses in three visual lexical decision datasets investigating inflectional morphology and polysemy. Our model offers a neurophysiological basis for the effects of morpho-semantic neighbourhoods. These results demonstrate how distributed patterns of activation naturally result in the arisal of symbolic structures. We conclude by arguing that the modelling framework exemplified here, is a powerful tool for integrating behavioural and neurophysiological results

Experiment and bias: the case of parsimony in comparative cognition

Comparative cognition is the interdisciplinary field of animal cognition and behavior studies, which includes comparative psychology and branches of ethology, biology, and neuroscience. My dissertation shows that the quasi-epistemic value of parsimony plays a problematic role in the experimental setting of comparative cognition. More specifically, I argue that an idiosyncratic interpretation of the statistical hypothesis-testing method, known as the Neyman-Pearson Method (NPM), embeds an Occamist parsimony preference into experimental methodology in comparative cognition, which results in an underattribution bias, or a bias in favor of allegedly simple cognitive ontologies. I trace this parsimony preference to the content of the null hypothesis within the NPM, and defend a strategy for modifying the NPM to guard against the underattribution bias. I recommend adopting an evidence-driven strategy for choosing the null hypothesis. Further, I suggest a role for non-empirical values, such as ethical concerns, in the weighting of Type I and Type II error-rates. I contend that statistical models are deeply embedded in experimental practice and are not value-free. These models provide an often overlooked door through which values, both epistemic and non-epistemic, can enter scientific research. Since statistical models generally, and the NPM in particular, play a role in a wide variety of scientific disciplines, this dissertation can also be seen as a case study illustrating the importance of attending to the choice a particular statistical model. This conclusion suggests that various philosophical investigations of scientific practice - from inquiry into the nature of scientific evidence to analysis of the role of values in science - would be greatly enriched by increased attention to experimental methodology, including the choice and interpretation of statistical models

Progress on the Casual Chain Gang: Some Approaches to Causation in Tort Law and Steps toward a Linguistic Analysis

The problem of causation impinges upon virtually every area of the law. In this article, Mr. Pincus takes a novel approach to this complex problem in the context of tort law. He begins by highlighting some of the difficult causal issues that emerge from the Chernobyl nuclear disaster and a recent test case on nuclear experiments conducted in Nevada a number of decades ago. He identifies ten prototype cases of causation through the rich doctrinal history in this area, arguing that fundamental problems arise not only at the margin, but permeate even simple cases of causation. Three theoretical approaches are then critically examined- the commitment to purely \u27factual causal tests; the view that causal judgments are determined by social or economic policies; and Hart and Honoré’s classic attempt to avoid these maximalist and minimalist extremes. Mr. Pincus argues that none of these approaches adequately deals with the fundamental problems outlined Accordingly, he undertakes a linguistic analysis, developing a descriptive model for understanding causation that might also be applied to other legal problems Finally, he suggests that legislation be used to improve causal determinations within the tort system, and that in some circumstances injuries be compensated outside it

The Status of Coronals in Standard American English . An Optimality-Theoretic Account

Coronals are very special sound segments. There is abundant evidence from various fields of phonetics which clearly establishes coronals as a class of consonants appropriate for phonological analysis. The set of coronals is stable across varieties of English unlike other consonant types, e.g. labials and dorsals, which are subject to a greater or lesser degree of variation. Coronals exhibit stability in inventories crosslinguistically, but they simultaneously display flexibility in alternations, i.e. assimilation, deletion, epenthesis, and dissimilation, when it is required by the contradictory forces of perception and production. The two main, opposing types of alternation that coronals in SAE participate in are examined. These are weakening phenomena, i.e. assimilation and deletion, and strengthening phenomena, i.e. epenthesis and dissimilation. Coronals are notorious for their contradictory behavior, especially in alternations. This type of behavior can be accounted for within a phonetically grounded OT framework that unites both phonetic and phonological aspects of alternations. Various sets of inherently conflicting FAITHFULNESS and MARKEDNESS constraints that are needed for an OT analysis of SAE alternations are intoduced

Why Are They Called Real Numbers If They Aren’t Real, and Other Such Questions?

This thesis studies the position of mathematical realism (the position that mathematical objects have ontological status) through history, starting with Pythagoras up until W.V.O Quine, and examining how these positions originate from each other. I hope to see how the position has changed and why, and provide an argument against the strongest of the realist positions, drawing on this extensive background. Finally, I advance my own argument against the strongest arguments for mathematical realism, and propose alternatives to a view of mathematical realism

Kenosis and identities: pneumatological pointers

In the thesis a methodology of understanding and explicating Christian faith consistent with the mystery of the simultaneous close connection and radical difference of God, human beings and the physical-organic cosmos environment is been mapped out. The theanthropocosmic principle as an expression of the mystery functions as the heuristic key in opening up the notion of kenosis (and incarnation) of Jesus Christ and the Holy Spirit within the scope of the enduring interaction of . The Spirit in the kenotic sense of the word connects and differentiates the overall processes of being and becoming, here and there, now and then of the mystery of the `presences' of God, human beings and the natural cosmic world in being there (Dasein), being thus and thus (Sosein) and being dynamically actual (Aktsein). God acts in terms of the Spirit's operational kenotic presence within the margins of the creatureliness of people and the natural cosmic world as the kenotic clothing of God. A dynamic interpretation of the integral and differential character of being and becoming suggests that making sense of the dynamics of the formation of identities and identification is an ever ongoing endeavour. It implies a continuous process of negotiation whilst experiencing various continuums, remaining open-ended in an ever-increasing sense of wonder and mystery of "exitus a Deo-reditus in Deum".Systematic Theology and theological EthicsD. Th. (Systematic Theology