What Ukraine Taught NATO about Hybrid Warfare

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 forced the United States and its NATO partners to be confronted with the impact of hybrid warfare far beyond the battlefield. Targeting Europe’s energy security, Russia’s malign influence campaigns and malicious cyber intrusions are affecting global gas prices, driving up food costs, disrupting supply chains and grids, and testing US and Allied military mobility. This study examines how hybrid warfare is being used by NATO’s adversaries, what vulnerabilities in energy security exist across the Alliance, and what mitigation strategies are available to the member states. Cyberattacks targeting the renewable energy landscape during Europe’s green transition are increasing, making it urgent that new tools are developed to protect these emerging technologies. No less significant are the cyber and information operations targeting energy security in Eastern Europe as it seeks to become independent from Russia. Economic coercion is being used against Western and Central Europe to stop gas from flowing. China’s malign investments in Southern and Mediterranean Europe are enabling Beijing to control several NATO member states’ critical energy infrastructure at a critical moment in the global balance of power. What Ukraine Taught NATO about Hybrid Warfare will be an important reference for NATO officials and US installations operating in the European theater.https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/1952/thumbnail.jp

Towards Intelligent Distribution Systems: Solutions for Congestion Forecast and Dynamic State Estimation Based Protection

The electrical distribution systems are undergoing drastic changes such as increasing penetration level of distributed renewable energy sources, energy storage, electrification of energy-efficient loads such as heat pumps and electric vehicles, etc., since the last decade, and more changes are expected in the future. These changes pose challenges for the distribution system operators such as increased level of network congestions, voltage variations, as well as protection settings and coordination, etc. These will require the development of new paradigms to operate distribution systems securely, safely, and economically while hosting a large amount of renewable energy sources.First, the thesis proposed a comprehensive assessment framework to assess the distribution system operator’s future-readiness and support them in determining the current status of their network infrastructures, business models, and policies and thus to identify areas for required developments. The analysis for the future-readiness of the three distribution system operators (from France, The Netherlands, and Sweden) using the proposed assessment framework has shown that presently the distribution system operators have a rather small penetration of renewable energy sources in their grids, however, which is expected to increase in the future. The distribution system operators would need investments in flexibilities, novel forecasting techniques, advanced grid control as well as improved protection schemes. The need for the development of new business models for customers and changes in the policy and regulations are also suggested by the analysis. Second, the thesis developed a congestion forecast tool that would support the distribution system operators to forecast and visualize network overloading and voltage variations issues for multiple forecasting horizons ranging from close-to-real time to day-ahead. The tool is based on a probabilistic power flow that incorporates forecasts of production from solar photovoltaic and electricity demand combined with load models along with the consideration of different operating modes of solar photovoltaic inverters to enhance the accuracy. The congestion forecast tool can be integrated into the existing distribution management systems of distribution system operators via an open cross-platform using Codex Smart Edge technology of Atos Worldgrid. The congestion forecast tool has been used in a case study for two real distribution systems (7-bus feeder and 141-bus system). It was demonstrated in the case study that the tool can predict the congestion in the networks with various prediction horizons. The congestion forecast tool would support distribution system operators by forecasting the network congestion and setting up a congestion management plan.Finally, the dynamic state estimation based protection scheme supported by advanced measurement technologies developed within EU project UNITED-GRID has been implemented and validated experimentally at Chalmers power system laboratory. This dynamic state estimation based protection scheme has a strong advantage over the traditional protection scheme as it does not require any relay settings and coordination which can overcome the protection challenges arising in distribution grids with a large amount of renewable energy sources. The results from the validation of the dynamic state estimation based protection scheme at Chalmers laboratory have shown that the fault detection using this scheme has worked properly as expected for an application of the line protection