Sequential Bayesian inference for static parameters in dynamic state space models

A method for sequential Bayesian inference of the static parameters of a dynamic state space model is proposed. The method is based on the observation that many dynamic state space models have a relatively small number of static parameters (or hyper-parameters), so that in principle the posterior can be computed and stored on a discrete grid of practical size which can be tracked dynamically. Further to this, this approach is able to use any existing methodology which computes the filtering and prediction distributions of the state process. Kalman filter and its extensions to non-linear/non-Gaussian situations have been used in this paper. This is illustrated using several applications: linear Gaussian model, Binomial model, stochastic volatility model and the extremely non-linear univariate non-stationary growth model. Performance has been compared to both existing on-line method and off-line methods

Enhanced Deadbeat Control Approach for Grid-Tied Multilevel Flying Capacitors Inverter

This paper proposes an enhanced Deadbeat Controller (DBC) for a grid-tied Flying Capacitors Inverter (FCI). The proposed DBC guarantees the balancing of the capacitors' voltages while injecting current to the grid with lower Total Harmonics Distortion (THD). The proposed controller has the following advantages: 1) Improved current tracking quality even at zero crossing instants by using a weighted state-space model, 2) Superior steady-state performance (lower current THD) compared to other prediction-based control techniques such as Finite-Control-Set Model Predictive Control, 3) The generated duty cycles are normalized to the common base when the desired state is out of reach within the sampling time, 4) Voltage Ride-Through (VRT) capability, and 5) Robustness to parameters variation. Theoretical analysis, simulation, and experimental results are presented to show the effectiveness of the proposed control technique in ensuring uninterruptible and smooth transfer of energy to the grid during normal/abnormal operating conditions (severe voltage sags, parameters variation, etc.)

A Data-driven Model for Interaction-aware Pedestrian Motion Prediction in Object Cluttered Environments

This paper reports on a data-driven, interaction-aware motion prediction approach for pedestrians in environments cluttered with static obstacles. When navigating in such workspaces shared with humans, robots need accurate motion predictions of the surrounding pedestrians. Human navigation behavior is mostly influenced by their surrounding pedestrians and by the static obstacles in their vicinity. In this paper we introduce a new model based on Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks, which is able to learn human motion behavior from demonstrated data. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first approach using LSTMs, that incorporates both static obstacles and surrounding pedestrians for trajectory forecasting. As part of the model, we introduce a new way of encoding surrounding pedestrians based on a 1d-grid in polar angle space. We evaluate the benefit of interaction-aware motion prediction and the added value of incorporating static obstacles on both simulation and real-world datasets by comparing with state-of-the-art approaches. The results show, that our new approach outperforms the other approaches while being very computationally efficient and that taking into account static obstacles for motion predictions significantly improves the prediction accuracy, especially in cluttered environments.Comment: 8 pages, accepted for publication at the IEEE International Conference on Robotics and Automation (ICRA) 201

A Data-driven Model for Interaction-aware Pedestrian Motion Prediction in Object Cluttered Environments

This paper reports on a data-driven, interaction-aware motion prediction approach for pedestrians in environments cluttered with static obstacles. When navigating in such workspaces shared with humans, robots need accurate motion predictions of the surrounding pedestrians. Human navigation behavior is mostly influenced by their surrounding pedestrians and by the static obstacles in their vicinity. In this paper we introduce a new model based on Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks, which is able to learn human motion behavior from demonstrated data. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first approach using LSTMs, that incorporates both static obstacles and surrounding pedestrians for trajectory forecasting. As part of the model, we introduce a new way of encoding surrounding pedestrians based on a 1d-grid in polar angle space. We evaluate the benefit of interaction-aware motion prediction and the added value of incorporating static obstacles on both simulation and real-world datasets by comparing with state-of-the-art approaches. The results show, that our new approach outperforms the other approaches while being very computationally efficient and that taking into account static obstacles for motion predictions significantly improves the prediction accuracy, especially in cluttered environments.Comment: 8 pages, accepted for publication at the IEEE International Conference on Robotics and Automation (ICRA) 201

Machine Learning for Observables: Reactant to Product State Distributions for Atom-Diatom Collisions

Machine learning-based models to predict product state distributions from a distribution of reactant conditions for atom-diatom collisions are presented and quantitatively tested. The models are based on function-, kernel- and grid-based representations of the reactant and product state distributions. While all three methods predict final state distributions from explicit quasi-classical trajectory simulations with R$^2$ > 0.998, the grid-based approach performs best. Although a function-based approach is found to be more than two times better in computational performance, the kernel- and grid-based approaches are preferred in terms of prediction accuracy, practicability and generality. The function-based approach also suffers from lacking a general set of model functions. Applications of the grid-based approach to nonequilibrium, multi-temperature initial state distributions are presented, a situation common to energy distributions in hypersonic flows. The role of such models in Direct Simulation Monte Carlo and computational fluid dynamics simulations is also discussed

CAR-Net: Clairvoyant Attentive Recurrent Network

We present an interpretable framework for path prediction that leverages dependencies between agents' behaviors and their spatial navigation environment. We exploit two sources of information: the past motion trajectory of the agent of interest and a wide top-view image of the navigation scene. We propose a Clairvoyant Attentive Recurrent Network (CAR-Net) that learns where to look in a large image of the scene when solving the path prediction task. Our method can attend to any area, or combination of areas, within the raw image (e.g., road intersections) when predicting the trajectory of the agent. This allows us to visualize fine-grained semantic elements of navigation scenes that influence the prediction of trajectories. To study the impact of space on agents' trajectories, we build a new dataset made of top-view images of hundreds of scenes (Formula One racing tracks) where agents' behaviors are heavily influenced by known areas in the images (e.g., upcoming turns). CAR-Net successfully attends to these salient regions. Additionally, CAR-Net reaches state-of-the-art accuracy on the standard trajectory forecasting benchmark, Stanford Drone Dataset (SDD). Finally, we show CAR-Net's ability to generalize to unseen scenes.Comment: The 2nd and 3rd authors contributed equall